ValueSpectre

My 10-Year Investing Playbook. From €300K to €4.5Million Read it here. 👇🏼 valuespectre.substack.com/p/…

Good morning everyone! ☕️ Over the past few days, I’ve tried to be much more active in the community, engaging with as many people as possible. But I’ve realized just how time-consuming that can be. I’d rather spend that time creating more quality content, sharing research, and finding new investment opportunities. I’ll also be significantly reducing the number of accounts I follow to keep my feed more focused. Of course, the people I’ve regularly interacted with and had great conversations with aren’t going anywhere! 👊🏻 I’ll still be around, reading your replies and engaging whenever I can. So keep the conversations coming! Quality over quantity. Always. 🩵👻

This is getting ridiculous! 🤯 What am I supposed to do with this? 👀

$APP +73% this week. My biggest position is starting to behave like a meme stock. Except the earnings are actually backing it up. 👀

And we’re back in the green! 🟢 My $NBIS position is now worth over €300K. Hopefully it’s ready to take off again. 🚀

$VST just delivered another strong quarter, and my bullish thesis keeps getting stronger. Some impressive numbers from Vistra’s Q3 earnings: • Adjusted EBITDA: $2.38B (+50% YoY) • Net income: $1.14B (+75% YoY) • 2027 EBITDA guidance: $7.7B–$8.5B • 2027 adjusted FCF before growth: $4.3B–$5.1B • Additional $1.5B in share buybacks authorized • New 20-year power agreement for 207 MW Vistra already has approximately 3.8 GW in long-term nuclear power agreements with Amazon and Meta. AI companies can order more GPUs, optics and servers, but none of that works without electricity. And building new power infrastructure takes time. That’s exactly why I believe existing power generation assets will become increasingly valuable. At roughly 11× my estimated 2027 GAAP earnings, I still see an attractive risk/reward. Growing earnings, strong cash flow, massive share buybacks and increasing demand for reliable electricity. The AI revolution isn’t just about chips and datacenters. Someone has to power it all. And $VST is positioning itself to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. 👀

Morning friends ☀️ My thoughts on $AAOI I liked the quarter. Revenue grew 127.5% YoY to $269.9M, and a $17.9M loss a year ago turned into a $6.3M profit. Even the midpoint of Q4 guidance implies 49% growth from Q3. What gives me pause isn’t that Wall Street wanted $427M and management guided for $385M–$420M. It’s the timing. A customer shifted to 1.6T faster than expected, and AAOI doesn’t have enough materials to fill all those orders in Q4. Separately, management expects phase 2 of its Texas expansion to slip by several months, partly because getting power to the facility is taking longer than planned. I’m still bullish on demand. But trust in management is my #1 priority.

Earnings beats, strong guidance, attractive valuations, hours of research… None of it seems to matter when the market is behaving like this. 📉 At some point, fundamentals have to matter again… right? 👀😬

Wait, WHAT?! Ehm… never mind. Long-term investor again.

Every morning I think AI stocks can't possibly go much lower. Every afternoon the market takes that personally. 😬 How deep are we going? 👀

My $NBIS position is now in the red. What a difference a month can make in the markets 😂🔴

🚀 $LMND just delivered another quarter of explosive growth! Q3 highlights: • Revenue: $336M (+73% YoY), beating estimates • EPS: -$0.56 vs. -$0.58 expected • In-Force Premium: $1.55B (+34% YoY) • Customers: 3.52M (+23% YoY) • Premium per customer: +9% • Adjusted FCF: +$27M • Gross Loss Ratio: 65% Lemonade expects positive adjusted EBITDA of $5M–$9M in Q4 and aims to maintain positive adjusted EBITDA throughout 2027. That’s a major milestone for a company that has spent years investing heavily in growth. The AI-driven insurance model is starting to show operating leverage as the business scales. And the valuation? • 2027 expected revenue: ~$1.64B • 2028 expected revenue: ~$2.14B • 2027 forward P/S: ~2.2x • 2028 forward P/S: ~1.7x Not expensive on sales for a company growing this quickly, although profitability remains the big question. The gross loss ratio increased to 65%, stock-based compensation remains significant, and GAAP profitability is still some distance away. But if Lemonade can maintain strong growth while improving underwriting margins, the upside could be substantial. 2027 could become a defining year for $LMND. Are we finally seeing the business model deliver on its potential?

🚀 $OSCR just delivered an impressive Q3 earnings report! +5% Pre-market 🟢 • Revenue: $5.14B (+72% YoY), beating estimates of $4.72B • EPS: $0.49 vs. -$0.21 expected • Members: 2.69M (+27% YoY) • Medical Loss Ratio: 84%, improving 450 bps YoY • SG&A ratio: 14%, improving 350 bps YoY • Operating income: $178M And management raised FY26 guidance again! Expected operating income is now $850M–$950M, up from $600M–$800M. What makes this interesting is the combination of strong membership growth, improving cost efficiency, and increasing profitability. At roughly 17x expected 2027 earnings and 13x 2028 earnings, the valuation looks attractive if these improvements prove sustainable. One thing to watch: favorable risk-adjustment estimates boosted Q3 results, so not all of the earnings improvement is necessarily recurring. Still, impressive execution from $OSCR.

10 years ago, I would never have imagined seeing a $70,000 daily move in a single stock position. Today, $APP did exactly that. 🤯 A lot of patience, mistakes, lessons, and staying invested through some pretty ugly markets. Days like this remind me how far the journey has come. I still feel like I’m just getting started. 👻

$APP generated $1.4B in free cash flow last quarter. Management cited around 900 employees in March. Using that headcount, that’s roughly $1.56M per person. Are they hiring people or money printers? 😂

Good morning, investors! 🎇 What a market yesterday! S&P 500 +1.58% Nasdaq +1.44% Dow +3.03% Had a pretty nice day thanks to $APP! 😎 And look at some of yesterday’s earnings growth: $APP: Revenue +55%, net income +72% $COHR: Revenue +50%, adjusted EPS +80% $MELI: Revenue +45% Meanwhile, AI infrastructure stocks are still getting hammered. Another big earnings day ahead: $IREN, $AAOI, $LITE, $LMND, $OSCR, $NET, $ABNB and $AFRM. Strong fundamentals, plenty of volatility, and hopefully a few more surprises today. Which stock do you think will steal the show with earnings today?👀

Fireworks it was for $APP today! 🎆🎇 +37% on the day. Almost a €400K position now. 👀 Am I invited to the AppLovin Christmas party yet, or am I still considered a retail investor? 👻

I'm up 120k now. Thankyou $APP 😁

After my recent purchases and 37% gain today $APP is now officially my largest portfolio position. 👀

$APP just delivered. As expected. 😎🔥 Who followed? 👻