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A breakthrough may have been reached between the U.S. and Iran, with preliminary agreements on Iran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and financial incentives. China and Russia could act as guarantors, with talks continuing in Doha.

Stocks are dumping. Crypto is dumping. Gold and silver are dumping. $1,000,000,000,000 erased from the US stock market at open.

🚨 Crypto’s worst year for security, and it’s not over yet. 2026 so far: 🔓 ~750 security incidents 💸 $9.0B in potential losses 📈 +133% vs 2025 2027 will be the year of cybersecurity investments.

📊 $BTC tapped the 200-day EMA. Low today: $76.3K. The 200-day EMA sits at ~$76.4K. This is the first retest since BTC reclaimed it. History says: ✅ 2019, 2020, 2023: first retests held, and big rallies followed ✅ 2024 and 2025: wicks below were reclaimed within weeks ❌ 2022: the reclaim failed in a hawkish Fed market, and BTC bled to $15.5K This time: • Fear & Greed is at 30 • Hike odds are above 80% • Binance hack headlines are still live 🎯 Levels • Hold $76.4K → $80.5K–$81K, then $83K–$84K • Lose it → $74K–$72K in play. The 200-day EMA has decided entire cycles. This is the test. 📌 Don't trade the first on-chain read. Wait for confirmation. 👉 prop.velarismarkets.com

🚨 Binance hacked: the biggest crypto heist ever. Here's how it stacks up against Bybit. 🔻 Bybit (Feb 2025) • ~$1.5B stolen, none recovered • BTC −4.5%, ETH −7.7% on the day • Both bounced the next day • The real damage came later that week, from tariffs and a weak market 🔻 Binance (now) • ~$5.6B drained, 3x+ Bybit • Tether + Circle froze ~$2B • Still $3B+ gone, including ~$1.5B in BTC • First hour: BTC −3.2%, ETH −4.5% • Now: BTC ~−2%, ETH ~−3% 📌 The pattern: a hack causes the first drop. The big moves come from the broader market, not the hack itself.

Bitcoin falls below $79,000 and Ethereum drops below $2300. Over $140 Million in longs have been liquidated in the last 60 minutes.

Inflation up, real incomes down, hike odds at 83%. Americans are getting poor, while FED is about to make their life even harder. Today's US data 👇 🔥 PCE inflation: 3.6% (from 3.4%) 🔥 Prices in one month: +0.5% (from +0.3%) 🔥 Core PCE: 3.1% (from 3.0%) 💵 Incomes: just +0.2% 📈 Q3 GDP: 3.4% vs 3.2% expected Prices rose faster than paychecks, so real incomes fell in September. Inflation is drifting further from 2% while the economy keeps running hot. That's a textbook hike setup. Yesterday the Fed held, called the economy strong and said it needs more data. Two officials already wanted to hike. 📊 December hike odds: 83% A hike means pricier mortgages, car loans and credit cards, just as households are falling behind. 📅 Next up: Oct jobs (Nov 6) and Oct CPI (Nov 10)

🚨 Google drags everything lower • $GOOGL is down ~10% premarket after a Q3 revenue miss ($127.58B) • BTC and ETH have erased their full 24h pump • Index futures are lower across the board One earnings miss is now moving stocks and crypto at the same time. Correlations are tight, so manage your risk accordingly. ⚠️

$BTC falls below $80,000, Ethereum drops below $2300. Over $80 million in longs liquidated in just 30 minutes.

🏛️ Warsh just made every Fed meeting more dangerous. Today’s hold was hawkish: 🔥 Inflation is still too high, above target for nearly 6 years 📈 Q3 GDP is tracking 3%+, and business investment is heading for double digits 🛢️ Energy is heating up again, and the Fed is “ready to act” 🗳️ Two dissents, both for a hike 📊 December hike odds: 86%, up from 78% yesterday. But the bigger story is the calendar 👇 📅 The Fed is going from 8 rate meetings a year to 6 by 2028. One meeting becomes strategy-only from fall 2027, and a second one follows by 2028. That’s 25% fewer chances to adjust policy: Longer gaps between decisions Bigger moves when they come Every remaining meeting carries more weight Fewer meetings won’t mean calmer markets. Policy gets lumpier, and lumpy means volatile. Each FOMC date just got more expensive to get wrong.

The Fed announced no rate change at the FOMC meeting, as expected. Rates stay at 3.75%–4.00%, split vote. All eyes on Warsh now.

🏛️ FOMC TODAY: the decision is priced in. Warsh's words aren't. Markets see a ~93% chance of a hold at 3.75–4.00%. The real trade is December, where a 25bp hike is ~73% priced. Why the Fed is uneasy: 🔥 CPI 3.7% YoY and rising (3.4% in Aug) 🛢️ Brent still ~$110, up from ~$72 before the Iran war 💵 Dollar near an 18-month high 🗳️ Midterms in 6 days 3 scenarios for the presser: 🦅 Hawkish: Warsh pushes "back to 2%, faster" and dissents for a hike show up (Hammack, Logan). December gets locked in. USD ⬆️ yields ⬆️ / stocks, gold and BTC ⬇️ 😐 Neutral: no guidance, which is Warsh's default since he dislikes forward guidance. A short relief bounce, then all eyes on Thursday's PCE. 🕊️ Dovish surprise: "no urgency" language that cools December odds. USD ⬇️ / risk assets rip. It's the least likely of the three. The statement sets the tone, but the presser moves the market. Expect whipsaws in both directions once Warsh starts talking.

US Treasury buys back $6,000,000,000 of its debt. This is being done to bring the long-term yields down.

🚨 China’s AI trade just broke, and it’s dragging the whole market with it. 📉 STAR50: −40% in under 4 months after peaking near 250× earnings 💸 ~$480B wiped from China AI names (per Reuters) 🤖 MiniMax + Zhipu: −$150B combined from highs 🔻 AI hardware stocks: −50% to −60% And it’s not just AI: Chinese stocks: ~$3.5T gone since the May peak CSI 300: −1.33% today, about $210B erased in one session Down 20%+ in 4 months: officially a bear market The story is intact, but the valuation premium is gone. Is U.S. tech next? 🤔

China's property slump just went past anything 2008 or Covid produced. 🇨🇳📉 Property investment: −21% YoY for Jan–Sep 2026, the worst start to a year on record. • 2020 pandemic low: −16% • 2008 crisis low: still +1% • Down every single month since 2022 This isn't a dip. It's a structural unwind, and it ripples into commodities, AUD, CNH and global risk.

$770 BILLION has been added to the US stock market today as Trump refuses Israel's proposal to attack Iran. S&P500: 1.02% NASDAQ: 1.33%

Gold is falling. ETF holders are not selling. Something very strange is happening in the Gold market. Gold is down more than 25% from its January peak and just broke under $4,000 for the first time in over three months. At the same time, gold ETF holdings have climbed toward ~102 million ounces. That is not a collapse in demand. It is a rate and liquidity story. Higher oil, hotter inflation prints, and rising Treasury yields have forced some selling. ETF buyers have kept adding into the dip. Forced selling can reverse when the cash need eases. Structural buying does not. The gap between the two is the setup.

$BTC full weekly recap 📊 BTC finished the week down 0.64% at ~$80,850. That number hides everything. The real week: • Wednesday: ripped to $84,827 on a short squeeze — $208M of shorts liquidated • Thursday: $1,500 gone in 60 minutes, back under $83K • Friday: closed $81,328, below the 50-day at $81,787 — first break in 66 days • Overnight Sunday: $79,263 low High to low: 6.6%. Net move: nothing. Both sides got paid out and neither got anywhere. The failed breakout keeps failing at the same place. I flagged $84,261 as the spot ETF cost basis two weeks ago. Wednesday's high was $84,827. Second rejection this month in the same zone — an underwater cohort selling break-even is a mechanical ceiling, not a coincidence. What broke it: $636M left spot ETFs on Oct 22 alone, roughly $910M over two weeks. Friday's Nasdaq pullback took another $431M in long liquidations with it. The gap to the 50-day got eaten by ETF selling, not by sentiment. On the 2022 fractal everyone's posting: the $74–75K target is defensible — the 100-day sits at $75,291 and the 200-day at $72,900. Real structure. The reasoning isn't. The week-16 "flash crash" in that analogue was the March 2023 banking crisis, an exogenous shock a chart can't schedule. And BTC ripped on it — $19.5K to $28K inside three weeks. If you want that fractal, you have to take the banking crisis with it. Right level. Wrong reason. Week ahead: • FOMC Wed — 91% priced for a hold, so the December language is the whole trade • Monthly options expiry Friday, ~$11.1B open interest • Mining difficulty +5.55% around Oct 29 Levels: • Reclaim $81,807 and Friday was a wick • Fail it into the weekly close and the break is the trend • Below $79,263, $75,291 is the magnet • Ceiling unchanged: $84,261 BTC is 36% below its all-time high and below the 50-day into a Fed week. That's not a dip-buying setup — that's a setup waiting on Wednesday.

What if you'd stacked just $10 of Bitcoin every month since 2010? 👀 $1,940 in → ~$42.6M today. 💲💵 Time in the market is the ultimate edge. Want to trade bigger now? Get funded with Velaris 👇 prop.velarismarkets.com