DWP's own figures: PIP fraud 0% (£0m) FYE 2024, lowest overpayment ever 0.4% (£90m). HMRC's tax gap £46.8bn — 520x larger than PIP overpayment. Small businesses alone account for £28.1bn (60%) of the tax gap, yet government puts 2,000 fraud staff into Jobcentres where fraud is 0%

Fraser Nelson's "Boriswave to Burnham wave" chart is clever misdirection. Yes, Home Office CP1448 forecasts 1.6m settlements 2026-30 peaking 450k in 2028. But the £10bn is NOT for 1.6m people. It's lifetime cost for 196k care workers + dependants only. Home Office: "We do not recognise" the £154bn figure Reform UK is pushing. Govt's own saving from 10yr rule? £600m, not £10bn. Visa ≠ Settlement ≠ Welfare. Most are still NRPF & employed. Check it yourself on DWP Stat-Xplore. Source: Home Office Earned Settlement Consultation CP1448

Face-to-Face Assessments vs Award Rates & Employment What it shows: • Pre-pandemic: ∼80% face-to-face. • Pandemic: 6% PIP face-to-face in 2024, 13% WCA — 4/5 telephone, 1/20 face-to-face (DWP evidence pack). • From Apr 2026: DWP increasing to 30% face-to-face for both PIP and WCA. • Award rates almost identical: F2F 50.1% vs Telephone 49.2% = 0.9% difference — statistically significant but DWP says "very small". • So increasing face-to-face does NOT change refusal/acceptance meaningfully, and NAO says no evidence it boosts employment — but it does cost more staff time and increases waiting times (68k phone, 4.4k F2F in Sep 2024)

The Tories say more face-to-face disability assessments will cut the welfare bill. The math says the opposite. COST TO IMPLEMENT: • £190 per assessment (up from £115 = +65%) • £595m for 3.4m assessments over 3 years • £255m paid to Atos/Capita last year alone • £700m original contract → £700m+ actual (NAO: £1.6bn over 3 years) CLAIMED SAVED: • £1.9bn by 2030/31 GROSS • But only £164m is from higher refusal rate (44% face-to-face pass vs 57% virtual) • Rest is projected, not realised Translation: You pay £190 upfront to maybe save £50/week. Need 4 weeks to break even. Meanwhile 78k queue at 4k/month = 19 month backlog. And halving NICs for under-25s? Costs £5.1bn to create 38k jobs = £132k per job. Employers already pay £0 NIC for under-21s. It's a tax break for Tesco/McD's existing staff, not new youth jobs. Source: DWP Report 926, NAO, FOI 2024, CP1448, IFS "Take a chance on me"

The DWP claims benefit sanctions save taxpayers money. Our new 10-year forensic audit proves the exact opposite. 📉💥 • 10.1M additional NHS mental health appointments(2022–2024) compared to 2021 baseline. • Direct correlation between Sanctions regime and mental health referrals and mental health contacts. • £3.26bn in excess NHS treatment costs alone. • Net public fiscal loss of up to £3.4 billion. Punishing the vulnerable doesn't balance the books—it bankrupts people & public services.