CMIE

Party preference in Punjab, Oct 2026: INC: 40.1% AAAP: 37.8% INC's first lead since Feb 2026. Four-month average, Jul-Oct 2026: AAAP 46.1%, INC 35.7%. AAAP among SCs: 52.1% in Oct 2025, 41.6% in Oct 2026. INC among Intermediate Castes: 54.3% in Oct 2026.

BJP's share of party preference in Rajasthan, 2026: June: 94.1% Oct: 74.5% INC: 5.6% in June, 23.9% in Oct. BJP's lead over INC: 88.5 pts in June, 50.6 pts in Oct. Upper castes naming BJP as previous party choice: 96.1% in June, 75.3% in Oct.

BJP's share of party preference in Uttar Pradesh: Oct 2026: 47.2%, a series low BJP's lead over SP: 30.3 pts in Oct 2025, 13.0 pts in Oct 2026. Among SCs in Oct: BSP 53.9%, BJP 25.2%. Among upper castes: BJP at 69.1%, from 83.8% in Oct 2025.

Satisfaction with state governments in four states heading to polls, Sept 2026 (fully + somewhat satisfied): Goa: 95.2% Uttarakhand: 72.1% Uttar Pradesh: 59.0% Punjab: 50.9% Punjab's net satisfaction: +2.1 pts, the narrowest of the four.

Approval of Tamil Nadu CM Joseph Vijay among women, 2026: June: 53.6% Sept: 33.7% Women's net approval: +0.9 pts in July, -22.4 in August, -29.8 in September. Men's net approval in September: -19.3 pts. In June, women approved 11.6 pts more than men.

Kerala CM approval rose to 66.24% in the May-Aug 2026 wave, a series high. Disapproval: 32.89%. Approval rose 24.43 pts in one wave, from 41.81% in Jan-Apr 2026. V.D. Satheesan (CM since May 2026) starts 21.29 pts above Pinarayi Vijayan’s best reading.

BJP’s Assembly vote intention in West Bengal rose to 75.59% in September 2026, the highest since tracking began in May 2023. AITC: 14.71%. The 60.88-pt gap is the widest in either direction in the series. AITC has lost 54.94 pts since its October 2025 peak of 69.65%.

BJP’s lead over SP in Awadh region (UP) Assembly vote intention shrank to 1.68 pts in the May-Aug 2026 wave, from 23.46 pts in Jan-Apr. BJP: 45.82%. SP: 44.14%. SP and INC together: 50.57%, ahead of the BJP. Steepest swing: Misrikh PC, where the BJP fell from 73.61% to 43.21%.

PM Modi’s approval in Uttar Pradesh fell to 49.85% in the May-Aug 2026 wave, below 50% for the first time. Disapproval: 48.93%, a series high. Approval fell 14.73 pts in one wave, from 64.58% in Jan-Apr 2026. The approval-disapproval gap shrank from 31.35 pts to 0.92 pts.

Delhi CM Rekha Gupta's approval: 54.7% in Sept 2026, down from 69.2% in July. The decline came from women. July → Sept: Women: 68.3% → 50.1% Men: 72.1% → 75.2% In June, women approved 20.4 pts more than men. In Sept, they trailed by 25.1 pts.

Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann's approval: 49.7% in August 2026, below the majority mark for the first time since February. It was 63.8% in June. By group, June → August: Sikh: 70.2% → 46.6% Hindu: 48.9% → 55.6% SC approval held between 56% and 67% this year.

UP-set: cracks in Yogi’s voter base Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath's approval fell to 51.7% in the May-Aug 2026 wave, from 63.6% in the previous wave, his lowest on record. Approval by group: SC: 52.1% → 36.1% OBC: 58.2% → 47.2% Upper caste: 82.1% → 71.2%

Madhya Pradesh CM approval fell to 57.3% in September 2026, the lowest in 25 months of tracking. Disapproval: 38.9%, a series high. Approval fell 13.0 pts in a month, from 70.3% in August. Mohan Yadav’s approval is down 23.2 pts from its April 2026 high of 80.5%.

Karnataka CM approval fell to 34.8% in September 2026, the lowest in 25 months of tracking. Disapproval: 64.6%. Approval fell 13.8 pts in a month, from 48.6% in August. Under D.K. Shivakumar (CM since June 2026), approval has not crossed 50% in any month.

BJP’s lead over INC in Madhya Pradesh Assembly vote preference fell to 21.7 pts in September 2026, the smallest since December 2023. BJP: 57.2%. INC: 35.5%. INC rose 6.2 pts in a month, from 29.3% in August. INC has gained every month since April 2026 (12.7%).

On handling protests, India's youth are politically divided Use force: 23.7% Ignore: 23.1% Negotiate: 21.4% Debate: 10.8% Accept demands: 21.1% Youngest (18-22) most in favour of using force (25.3%) and ignoring (25.6%). 23-30 year olds want to accept demands (24.3%)

Strong supporters of the central govt. believe protest should be met with force (25.3%) or ignored (28.9%). Strong detractors of govt. believe protesters’ demands should simply be accepted (28.7%). Neither believes in public debate (9.2% & 11.6% res.)

Would you tell others you took part in a protest? Women hedge, Men disclose Yes: 41.8% No: 25.8% Depends: 19.3% Never protest: 13.2% Men say yes more (47.4% vs 39.7%). But men and women say no at similar rates (26.4% vs 25.5%). Women say 'depends' more (20.7% vs 15.6%).

Should India have a dedicated public space for protest? (Sept 2026) Yes: 69.9% Protest should not be confined to it: 56.9% Protesters should not disturb the public: 63.7% At least 26.7% back a dedicated space and also reject confining protest to it.

Where do Indians get protest news? (Sept 2026) TV: 35.3% Social media: 30.2% Word of mouth: 13.7% MEN SCROLL, WOMEN WATCH Men lean on social media (35.6%) over TV (32.0%). Women lean on TV (36.4%) over social media (28.2%). Gender gap on all digital sources: 10.3 pts