Every play tracked. Every result posted. Data-driven cards, props & recaps. YouTube: @realhonestdegen Full access is cheaper than a burrito
Degen VIP 👉
Joined June 2026
- Tweets4.5K
- Following243
- Followers3.8K
- Likes5.8K
Pinned Tweet
We simulated Bills at Vikings 5,000,000 times 😂
Every snap is built from this season's real data: coverages, pressure rates, route trees, run schemes, 4th-down tendencies and clock management.
Every NFL sim is live on honestdegen website. Here's the most likely game + top betting edges ⤵️
Ladder Challenge…
We started a 1.0u to 10.0u Ladder Challenge inside the Discord on Saturday and cashed Step 1 (+108) and Step 2 (-116) back-to-back to turn 1.00u into 3.87u.
Unlocking Step 3 for the timeline tonight. A win here moves the roll to 7.65u one step away from clearing the 10u target.
🪜 Ladder Step 3 (-102 | $10 pays $19.78)
Stake: 3.87u ➔ To Return: 7.65u
• Cavaliers ML @ Hornets (76%)
• Pistons ML vs. Wizards (82%)
• Bills @ Vikings 1Q Over 3.5 Points (80%)
1. Cavaliers ML: Bypassing the -8.5 road spread completely. Charlotte (6-game losing streak) has ruled OUT Brandon Miller, Dennis Schröder, Kon Knueppel, and Grant Williams.
2. Pistons ML: Ditching the -10.5 spread at Little Caesars Arena and asking Cade Cunningham and Detroit to win outright at home against Washington.
3. Bills/Vikings 1Q Over 3.5: Indoors on the fast track at U.S. Bank Stadium. Any opening-script touchdown by Josh Allen or Minnesota or even two early field goals (3-3 / 6-0) cashes this in the first 15 minutes.
Riding Step 3 with us tonight, or fading? 👇
🧹 2-0 FREE X PLAY SWEEP TODAY + 5-0 SUNDAY NIGHT HEATER! 🔥
Both Free X Plays and our +220 Correlated SGP Builder obliterated the books today:
✅ Mavericks -7.5 (-110) — WON 130-93 (By 37 Points!)
✅ Mavericks +220 SGP — CASHED! (Cooper Flagg 25 PTS & 12 AST + P.J. Washington 2-of-3 3PT!)
✅ Giants @ Eagles Under 38.5 (-110) — WON 19-11 (30 pts — cashed by 8.5!)
Inside VIP Discord tonight, we closed on a 5-0 Sunday evening tear to finish 7-3 (+3.91u) today & 13-4 (+8.75u) across the weekend:
3-0 NHL SWEEP: Bruins ML (4-1), Lightning/Jets Over 6.0 (4-3), Ducks ML (5-2)
NHL now 18-8 (+11.09u) L7 days!
2-1 NBA NIGHT: Mavericks -7.5 (130-93), Celtics/Bucks Under 222.5 (214 pts)
NBA now 5-1 (+5.32u) this weekend!
Bengals ML + 49ers ML Parlay (-110) — CASHED! (34-17 & 38-17)
❤️ if you cashed with us today Monday’s NFL, NBA & NHL card drops tomorrow!
🏀 SUNDAY NIGHT NBA OFFICIAL PLAY + SGP BUILDER
We’re 4-1 across our last 5 NBA plays after last night’s 3-0 sweep and tonight we’re attacking the biggest rest mismatch on the board at an even better number:
DALLAS MAVERICKS -7.5 (-110) | B+ | 1.5u
❤️ if you’re tailing!
Degen Analysis + Correlated +220 SGP below in the replies 👇
13-4 (+8.75u) across the weekend and every single pick & result is tracked on the Master Ledger 📊
Hop inside VIP Discord before Monday Night Football + Monday’s NBA & NHL slates lock for just 33¢/day 👇
honestdegen.com
😂
🏀 SUNDAY NIGHT NBA OFFICIAL PLAY + SGP BUILDER
We’re 4-1 across our last 5 NBA plays after last night’s 3-0 sweep and tonight we’re attacking the biggest rest mismatch on the board at an even better number:
DALLAS MAVERICKS -7.5 (-110) | B+ | 1.5u
❤️ if you’re tailing!
Degen Analysis + Correlated +220 SGP below in the replies 👇
🏀 SUNDAY NIGHT NBA OFFICIAL PLAY + SGP BUILDER
We’re 4-1 across our last 5 NBA plays after last night’s 3-0 sweep and tonight we’re attacking the biggest rest mismatch on the board at an even better number:
DALLAS MAVERICKS -7.5 (-110) | B+ | 1.5u
❤️ if you’re tailing!
Degen Analysis + Correlated +220 SGP below in the replies 👇
🧠 DEGEN ANALYSIS + CORRELATED SGP BUILDER (NETS @ MAVERICKS):
• Brutal Overnight Travel B2B: Last night in Atlanta, 2-7 Brooklyn led for 46 minutes before collapsing on a 20-7 Hawks run in the final 3 minutes (124-121 loss, 22 turnovers).
• Taxed Starters: Without PG Egor Demin (Out — 6th straight game), Brooklyn played Michael Porter Jr. 36 mins, Julius Randle 34 mins (6 TOs), and Day’Ron Sharpe 32 mins before flying overnight to Texas on ZERO days rest.
• Rested Dallas Juggernaut: Dallas (Cooper Flagg #32, Kyrie Irving #11, P.J. Washington #25, Daniel Gafford #21) hasn’t traveled since beating Utah 112-100 on Friday while dominating the glass 55-41 (21 offensive boards).
🎯 FUN 3-LEG CORRELATED SGP BUILDER (+220):
• Mavericks ML (or -4.5 Alt)
• Cooper Flagg 5+ Assists (Posted 21 PTS, 10 REB, 7 AST Friday with Lively out)
• P.J. Washington 2+ Made Threes (Hit 6-of-11 3PT for 26 PTS Friday vs. tired closeouts)
Full Sunday Night NBA (Celtics @ Bucks) & NHL (Penguins @ Ducks)
Full cards are live via website/ Discord for 33¢/day
💰 CASH THAT TICKET! ✅🏈
🦅 Giants @ Eagles UNDER 38.5 (-110) ✅
Another NFL winner in the books! 💵
Every pick tracked. Every result posted. No hiding the losses, no cherry-picking the wins.
Full slate via HonestDegen website / discord
I mean…. It was posted for free 😤
DEGEN ANALYSIS : GIANTS @ EAGLES (OFFICIAL INACTIVES AUDIT):
We just went 6-1 (+4.84u) across Saturday night’s NBA (3-0 sweep) & NHL (3-1) slates, and the 11:30 AM ET official NFL inactives just turned this NFC East total into an absolute rock fight:
Eagles Passing Attack Wiped Out:
Philadelphia is starting backup QB Joe Milton III (with Tanner McKee nursing ribs) while ruling BOTH top WRs DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) INACTIVE.
Giants Offensive Weapons Sidelined:
New York just ruled starting RB Cam Skattebo (hamstring) and TE Thomas Fidone II INACTIVE on the morning report.
Trench Script: With both passing games decimated and Philly missing DB Jonathan Jones and LB Jihaad Campbell, expect a slow, run-heavy division grinder that bleeds the play clock all afternoon.
📋 SUNDAY VIP SLATE ROLLING NOW:
✅ Bengals ML leading 31-17 in the 4Q in Madrid!
🏈 Full NFL Week 9 Card
🏒 3-Play Sunday NHL Card (15-8, +7.37u Heater!)
🏀 3-Play Sunday NBA Card + Audited Props (Off 3-0 Sweep!)
Unlock the full Sunday board for just 33¢/day
✅ FREE X PLAY CASHES IN A 22-POINT BLOWOUT!
🏀 San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (-110) WON (125-103!) 🔥
Portland had zero legs on the second night of a travel back-to-back as Victor Wembanyama dropped 29 PTS in just 24 minutes and the Spurs led by as many as 35 points!
Even better inside VIP Discord tonight:
🧹 3-0 (+4.09u) NBA SWEEP:
✅ Spurs -5.5 (-110) (Won 125-103)
✅ Nuggets -6.5 (-110) (Won 114-102)
✅ Knicks/Cavs Under 223.5 (-110) (206 pts — cashed by 17.5!)
🏒 3-1 (+0.75u) NHL NIGHT (Now 15-8, +7.37u Last 6 Days!):
✅ Lightning ML (-122) (Won 4-3)
✅ Hurricanes -1.5 (-160) (Won 9-2!)
✅ Hurricanes ML + Avalanche ML Parlay (-125) (Won 9-2 & 4-0!)
❤️ if you cashed Spurs -5.5 with us tonight Sunday NFL Week 9 Locks drop in the morning!
We simulated Bengals at Falcons 50,000 times 🏈
Every snap is built from this season's real data: coverages, pressure rates, route trees, run schemes, 4th-down tendencies and clock management.
Every NFL sim is live on the honestdegen website. Here's the most likely game + top betting edges ⤵️
Player Props (50,000 Sims)
✅ Zaccheaus U 1.5 Rec: 81% · -117 (+27%) · 0.8
✅ Pitts U 4.5 Rec: 78% · -162 · 3.0
✅ Zaccheaus U 8.5 Rec Yds: 75% · -113 · 6
✅ Pitts U 41.5 Rec Yds: 74% · -115 (+21%) · 29
✅ Higgins O 76.5 Rec Yds: 69% · -112 (+17%) · 104
✅ Dotson O 29.5 Rec Yds: 69% · -113 (+16%) · 49
✅ Folk U 7.5 Kicking Pts: 66% · +101 (+16%) · 6.4
✅ Penix U 31.5 Pass Att: 66% · -109 (+14%) · 29
✅ London U 5.5 Rec: 64% · +110 (+16%) · 4.8
✅ Sample O 3.5 Rec Yds: 64% · -113 (+11%) · 8
✅ McPherson U 8.5 Kicking Pts: 64% · -115 (+10%) · 7.5
✅ Burrow O 2.5 Pass TD: 55% · +148 (+15%) · 3
Anytime TD Probabilities (50,000 Sims)
🔥 Bijan Robinson: 63% · -220 (fair -173)
🔥 Chase Brown: 56% · -160 (fair -127)
🔥 Ja'Marr Chase: 49% · -110 (fair +103)
🔥 Tee Higgins: 44% · +115 (fair +129)
🔥 Drake London: 39% · +135 (fair +158)
🔥 Mike Gesicki: 29% · +230 (fair +239)
🔥 Kyle Pitts Sr.: 26% · +265 (fair +279)
🔥 Samaje Perine: 26% · +270 (fair +292)
First TD Top 5:
1. Bijan Robinson: 12% · fair +720
2. Ja'Marr Chase: 10% · fair +886
3. Chase Brown: 10% · fair +912
4. Tee Higgins: 9% · fair +1021
5. Mike Gesicki: 7% · fair +1386
Sim every game on HonestDegen Website
✅ Nuggets vs. Pacers (Mexico City)🇲🇽🏀
Projected: Nuggets 118, Pacers 108
Actual: Nuggets 114, Pacers 102 (8-6, +1.49u)
✅ Nuggets ML: 80% · -305
✅ Nuggets -8: 59% · -106
✅ Under 229.5: 58% · -110 (216 pts)
✅ DeRozan U 17.5 PRA: 72% · -113 (17)
✅ Oubre U 3.5 REB: 70% · -132 (1)
✅ Jokic U 47.5 PRA: 67% · -105 (40)
✅ Nembhard U 2.5 REB: 62% · +110 (1) 💰
✅ Gordon U 21.5 PRA: 58% · -106 (17)
🎯 Video Sim Exact Hits:
• DeRozan: 11 PTS, 17 PRA sim -> 11 PTS, 17 PRA actual
• Gordon: 5 REB, 17 PRA sim -> 5 REB, 17 PRA actual
📊 honestdegen.com
🏀 SATURDAY NIGHT NBA OFFICIAL PLAY (10:00 PM ET):
🔥 SAN ANTONIO SPURS -5.5 (-110) | B+ | 1.5u
❤️ if you’re tailing!
Degen Analysis below 👇
🧠 DEGEN ANALYSIS — SPURS @ TRAIL BLAZERS:
• Brutal Travel Back-to-Back: We cashed Lakers -2.5 against Portland last night as the Blazers committed 24 turnovers in LA and had to fly home to Portland overnight on ZERO days rest.
• Depleted Blazers Roster: Portland remains without Ja Morant (hamstring), Shaedon Sharpe (meniscus), and Vit Krejci (fractured leg).
• Rested Spurs Juggernaut: 7-2 San Antonio enters on a 3-game road winning streak (allowing just 108.6 PPG) with a rested Victor Wembanyama & De’Aaron Fox ready to dominate the paint.
📋 SATURDAY NIGHT VIP SLATE (LOCKING AT 8:00 PM ET):
✅ #3 Utah Utes -4.5 (-110) (Cashed!)
✅ Denver Nuggets -6.5 (-110) (Blowout in Mexico City!)
🔒 Knicks @ Cavaliers (8:00 PM ET | 1.5u B+)
🔒 4-Play Saturday NHL Card (8:00 PM ET | 4.5u — 12-7, +6.62u NHL Heater!)
Unlock tonight’s 8:00 PM ET NBA & NHL VIP cards for just 33¢/day