ShynZ retweeted
$RKT analysis π Request
Very bullish on this one but for now itβs a wait until next FOMC, a rate hike could crush it, a hold will be neutral, next earnings is the 2nd big event for them.
What they do π
Rocket is is one of the bigger US fintech names in housing : Rocket Mortgage, Redfin, title/closing, servicing, home equity, and Rocket Loans.
Why I am bullish on $RKT and could be the catalyst for the next leg up ππ
β’ Record 6.2% of total loans loans purchased and refinances purchase 14.3% ===> They are #1
β’ More than 70% of revenue is now recurring or less rate-sensitive
β’ Redfin mortgage leads doubled YoY
β’ Mr. Cooper + Redfin acquisitions ππ
β’ #1 U.S. home-equity lander ==>Rocket Loans volume nearly doubled in 1H26
β’ Most profitable quarter in four years even with a weak spring housing market.
CATALYSTS possibility:
- A hold in September plus a soft CPI would flip the narrative fast
- They have adjusted Q3 down, a beat against a weak market could activate the next impulse.
News π
Todayβs Jobs report is a problem for $RKT.
August payrolls: +162k vs ~56k expected. Unemployment stuck at 4.1%.
Thatβs a hot labor print. Yields popped.
Mortgage rates were already near 7%.
This keeps them there.
Fed funds futures now anticipate a 60% odds of a September hike.
For Rocket that means: β’ fewer purchases
β’ fewer refis
β’ tighter affordability
β’ Q3 guide already called for a smaller market due to weak house market.
Blackrock added 2M shares from Q1 to Q2 2026
Revenue growth π
β’ 2023: ~$4.0B
β’ 2024: ~$4.9B
β’ 2025: ~$6.9B
The 2025β26 jump came from their acquisitions ==> Mr. Cooper/Redfin
From the TA perspective:
Weekly chart π
The 2024β26 advance already completed a 5 wave impulses that was the Large Cycle Wave I.
Now we are in the larger correction: A-B-C for Large Cycle Wave II
β’ A was the first drop off the Wave 5 high
β’ B was the bounce
β’ C is in progress β³
If we loose the 200MA ==> one more leg down for extended C and honestly Large Cycle Wave I lasted around 24 months so I donβt think this 7 months correction is enough.
I donβt see a reversal before next earnings or Q1 2027.
Targets :
- 78.6% retracement ==> $10.90
- 88.6% retracement ==>
$9.30
After that large correction ends you know what is coming ===> Large Cycle Wave III with all The fondamentals in place to have a huge move πππ
Targets if we end at $10.90
$35-$45
Extended $50+
That will worth all the wait π
Who know what I think about great company under the weekly 200MA = BUY OPPORTUNITY.
$UWMC $PFSI $COOP $HOUS $OPEN $LEN $DHI
#RKT #RocketMortgage #Housing #Mortgage #Redfin
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