Stocks & Options | Swing & Momentum Trading based on Technicals and Fundamentals| Not Investment Advice - For Information Use
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**1/**
Real talk: this has NOT been an easy market to swing trade. Since July, the indexes kept making new highs while individual stocks went down. It's been an intraday and 1-2 day hold tape — not a swing tape. Anyone telling you otherwise is selling something.
**2/**
Our own book shows it. Since #October started we've done far fewer trades. A few underwater — $META and $ARM, trimmed and still holding. Winners too: $MRNA, $HPE, $PLTR, $DELL, $MRVL. Even my $MRVL Oct 16 $300 calls are underwater right now. That's the tape.
**3/**
Position size is dramatically smaller than the April–June trend market, when swing trading was easy. Now it's patience, raising cash, day by day, being selective. Fewer trades, smaller size, higher standards. That's not weakness — that's the job.
**4/**
Because it's not just about making money — it's about protecting the capital you already made. If you can survive weeks of sideways chop and violent rotations, you'll do REALLY well when the real bullish trend comes back and breakouts actually work.
**5/**
Don't get carried away by #FinTwit — the million-dollars-in-a-week posts, the breakout victory laps. Our goal in the TradingWiser community: be here in 10, 20, 30 years. Grow 5 figures into 6, 7, 8. That takes time, learning, and surviving. We're in this together.
**6/**
For weeks I've told the community: it's not just technicals and fundamentals — watch the macro. Midterms are in November. The message: reduce size, be patient, expect volatility, chop, pullbacks. Until the election is done, don't expect a steady trend.
**7/**
So we've been scaling into longer-dated expirations — 6 to 12 months out — and buying stocks at key weekly/monthly support. Running spreads on LEAPs cuts the premium bleed; you buy the second leg and turn it into straight calls with a better average. It's worked wonders.
**8/**
Next 3 weeks: expect volatility, not trend. Healthy path — stocks move lower first (breadth is weak), then post-midterms we break out to new highs. #November's been the most bullish month in 20 years. Positioned if it repeats; in cash and patient if it doesn't.
Good luck 👍
How I handled trading the last few weeks / months — and why I'm sharing it.
Honestly? I've traded #LESS than ever. Way more selective. Full days with zero trades — just watching price action and the market, letting it show its hand.
In a 7,600–7,800 $SPX box with gap ups, gap downs and zero follow-through, activity is not edge. #Selectivity is.
No setup, but the temptation to trade anyway? I close the laptop and walk away. Focus on other things in life. The urge to "do something" is the most expensive feeling in trading — a closed laptop has saved me more money this month than any indicator.
I also stopped staring at my account value. Watching that number tick changes how you think — you start trading your P&L instead of the chart. Check the plan, not the balance. The balance follows the plan.
On my #stock, #LEAPS in #options: when you're deep in profit, you have choices. Get out and sit in cash — or use the time you bought to evaluate the market calmly and decide what to do. LEAPS give you time. Time is the whole point. Don't trade them like weekly lottos.
Full transparency, because that's what I do here: I have unrealized losses right now. I have realized losses. I've had options expire worthless. That's real trading. Anyone showing you only green is selling you something.
And still — I'm UP for the year. That's what matters. The goal from here: close the year in profit, protect what we've built, and re-evaluate with a clear head. One good trending stretch pays for months of patience.
Why am I sharing this? Because the lesson isn't a ticker.
You don't get paid for trading more. You get paid for trading RIGHT.
True character is built in exactly this kind of environment. Survive the chop with your capital and your mind intact, and you earn the right to size up when the market finally moves with trend — and when it does, you make months of returns in days.
Patience isn't doing nothing. Patience IS the position.
Hope it helps all new, experience traders on how to approach such markets.
Good luck 👍
Not trading this tape “IS” the trade.
Gap up, gap down, zero follow-through — I'm protecting your capital, not feeding the chop.
Patience pays big when trend returns. True character is built in THIS environment. Survive it — you'll make months of returns in days. Good luck 👍
🌅 Morning Market Update — Tue Oct 20
Futures slipping: NQ -0.8%, SPX -0.3%. Oil $106 is the tax.
$MMM beat+raise is the clean long watch. $MU ~$883 pre — below the Oct 13 short's $900 T2.
$NFLX + $SPCX after close. Size down.
Good luck 👍
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**Full thread:**
**1/**
🌅 Morning Market Update — Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Premarket Map. Futures slipped as the morning went on — don't trade the first print.
Early (5:20–5:34 AM ET): Dow +0.22%, S&P −0.07%, Nasdaq −0.46% to −0.50%
Later update: Nasdaq −0.8%, S&P −0.3%, Dow fractionally red
Monday close: $SPX 7,690.73 +0.41% | Nasdaq 26,430.89 +1.11% | Dow 51,966.03 −0.07%
Index green Monday, internals weren't: 5,383 decliners vs 4,213 advancers, only 23% of stocks above their 50ma (single-scanner figures). Narrow tape.
**2/**
The macro driver today isn't data — it's oil.
WTI $106.20 +2.5% (traded above $110 earlier), Brent ~$111.22 +1.52% on Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia / Gulf shipping. 10Y 5.11% vs 5.14% Monday. Gold $4,135 −0.6%, BTC $81,400.
Energy is the bid. Growth is the tax. XLE +0.99% pre, USO +2.42% — holding up on a red futures day is the relative-strength tell.
**3/**
$5+ GAPPERS — ranked by DOLLAR move, not %
DOWN:
$SNDK ~−$41 — −3.0% pre to ~$1,330, memory giveback (Mon close $1,371.12)
$MU ~−$23 — −2.5% pre to ~$883 (Mon close $904.90)
$STLD −$12 to −$16 — earnings miss
$NBIS ~−$8 — −4.9% (single-scanner level; direction down confirmed, exact $ not)
$SKHY ~−$7 — Kospi semis −3.5%
$GM ~−$5 — beat, and sold anyway
UP:
$RAPP ~+$7 — +25.3%, driver NOT verified, small name, no chase
$MMM — the clean earnings name, but faded: early prints ~+$7, later snapshots ~+1–1.9% near $165 — watch the hold, don't anchor to the early high
$CRWV −3.2% pre, below $60 at 52-week lows — huge story, only ~−$2.70. Not a $5 mover. Don't let % fool you.
**4/**
RECEIPT — memory
Called $MU short on Oct 13 at ~$934.07 — T2 $900 tagged Friday.
Monday it spiked to a $926.81 intraday high but CLOSED at $904.90. This morning it's ~$883 premarket — through the $900 T2, not sitting on it.
That's the Oct 13 short thesis extending, not a $900 backtest holding. Same family for $SNDK (Mon close $1,371.12, ~$1,330 pre).
Longs need a reclaim + hold back ABOVE $900, then $904.90 (Mon close), with $SMH confirming — the old bounce high to beat is $926.81. Below $900, don't catch it. Chasing into a broken level is how receipts die.
**5/**
EARNINGS — this morning, verified beats/misses:
$MMM — adj EPS $2.50 vs $2.39 est, revenue $6.58B in line (+4.2%), FY EPS guide RAISED to $9.13 midpoint + an expanded Amazon data-center products deal late Monday. Beat + raise + catalyst.
$GE — adj EPS $2.25 vs $2.01 est, adj revenue $13.29B vs $12.88B, orders +49%, FY guide RAISED to $8.00–$8.10. Beat in each of the last 4 quarters. Stock choppy pre — prints conflict, no $5 claim until the open settles it.
$NOC — EPS $7.89 vs $7.18–$7.22 est, backlog a RECORD $109.6B, FY guide raised to $29.35–$29.75. Defense is printing.
$GM — adj EPS $3.70 vs $3.63 est, revenue $50.02B vs $48.7B, $20B buyback… and DOWN 5–7% pre. Guide narrowed to $12.75–$13.75. Sell-the-beat. Guidance > print, again.
$STLD — EPS $5.26 vs $5.48 est, missed its own $5.34–$5.38 guide too. Revenue beat doesn't save an EPS miss.
**6/**
AFTER THE CLOSE — the real event risk:
$NFLX — est $0.82 / ~$12.86B. Pattern warning: it beat EPS in each of its last 3 prints and the stock FELL after every one. Options imply ~8.4%, stock −25% YTD into it. Guidance decides, not the beat.
$SPCX — SpaceX's 2nd-ever report. Consensus ~$12.84B revenue, first quarterly profit ~$0.16. Options imply ±7.5%. Down ~34–35% from its post-IPO high above $225.
$ISRG also AMC. 18 S&P names report today.
**7/**
ECON / FOMC: 8:30 AM ET — Housing Starts / Building Permits (Sep). Fed is in BLACKOUT (Oct 17–29). FOMC Oct 28. No tier-1 print today — earnings + oil own this tape.
News that matters: US banned China's DeepSeek from federal agency systems (CNBC) — US/China AI rift, theme-level. AI-debt fear is back: $CRWV −25%+ last week, semis red again pre ($SMH −1.04%). Selective market, not a blanket dip-buy.
**8/**
TRADE SETUP A — watch triggers only, no chase at the open: MMM — Setup A, cleanest today. Only long on a reclaim + hold above the confirmed premarket high 🎯 175, $180 🛑 below $162.00. If it sits at ~$165, it's a gap-fill watch, not a long.
$HAL — energy RS continuation, $34.27 +3.9% pre. Above $34.27 🎯 $36, $38 🛑 below $32.98. Size it like a theme trade.
$MU — receipt name, NOT a fresh long. No long until $900 is reclaimed and held.
$GM / $STLD — no bottom-fishing earnings gaps pre-open. First-hour base first. SPX — lose Monday's low area with Nasdaq leading down = gap-fill mode. Flat is a position into NFLX / $SPCX at 4 PM.
Good luck 👍
Day3 of market breakdown - seeing across stocks in semi especially
Safe haven is $LLY money flows when everything breakdowns
Best to sit tight and do nothing. Stay cash and protect it
Didn’t do anything last few days - not a market I trade
🌙 Sunday Futures Update:
Futures are back, Early tape: mildly green — the OANDA NAS100 CFD printed +0.4% right at the bell.
Friday left the market 0.1% from glory: S&P 7,811.53, the second-highest close in history. The record 7,818.93 (Tue) and the Sep 22 ATH $7,848.50 are both right above. Green week: S&P +1.2%, Dow +0.9% (biggest weekly gain since early August), Nasdaq +0.6% (4th straight weekly gain).
IF ES holds 7,810–7,820 on the reopen → $SPX cash takes its shot at the record 7,819, then the ATH 7,840–7,850 zone.
IF it loses 7,780 → back toward 7,720–7,740, and the Oct 1 low ~7,672 is the line in the sand.
Weekend that actually matters:
🛢️ Energy owned the weekend. #Sunday, #Trump declared an "energy ceasefire" between Ukraine and Russia "effective immediately" — #Zelensky said it was news to him, but that Ukraine will match it if Russia does. #Friday, Trump lifted sanctions on Russia; Saturday he said he'd import Russian diesel. AAA Sunday: diesel $6.28/gal (+$2.61 vs a year ago), gasoline $4.359. Brent ~$104, WTI ~$91 into the weekend — the supply headlines are bearish risk for crude. Watch the energy sector Monday. barrons.com/articles/stock-f…
📊 Asia's Friday night: mixed. Nikkei futures dropped 500 points overnight; Hang Seng futures +171; the Golden Dragon China index +2.7% with ADRs firm. No Asia panic — just a chop.
💵 10-yr at 5.24% — closed the week under the 5.35% line AGAIN (the wicks keep failing to stick). First week the 10Y finished lower in six weeks. VIX 14.86.
#Monday setup:
• Columbus Day: stocks open, bonds closed. Thin tape, light data — low-volume drift territory. Hammack speaks 12:10pm ET. Real earnings are quiet until Tuesday.
• Breadth quietly repaired: the equal-weight S&P gained 1.6% on the week, ending a 7-week losing streak. But small caps lost their 5th straight week — $RUT red while the big boys hit records.
• The telecom story isn't done. $TMUS −13.3%, $T −10.9%, $VZ −10.1% Friday on the #SpaceX spectrum deal; towers CCI/SBAC/AMT +7–16% the other way. Day-2 of a structural shift is usually worse — no counter-trend until premarket lows reclaimed.
#Busy Week ahead
#TUE: banks kick off Q3 — $JPM $GS $C $WFC + $UNH $JNJ $DPZ before the bell. Watch #NII, credit quality, deal pipeline.
#WED: #CPI Sep 8:30am — the week's main event. Est: headline 3.6% YoY / 0.6% MoM, core 2.5% / 0.2%. A hot print strengthens the December-hike case (~70% priced). Beige Book 2pm.
schwabnetwork.com/articles/w…
#THU: retail sales + #PPI Sep 8:30am, jobless claims (prior 197K), Empire State/Philly Fed. $TSM reports — the #AI tape's real test: $SOXX lagged Friday (−0.7% while NQ gained), and $NVDA failed its reclaim of Thursday's $237.07 high ($229.28 close). Guilty until proven innocent.
#FRI: industrial production, trade prices. Fed quiet period starts Oct 17; FOMC decision Oct 28
Names on watch into Monday: $JPM $GS $C $WFC $BAC $MS (earnings), $AAPL (#Nikkei reports 15–20% iPhone 18 Pro component cuts), $HUM (how the +11.5% gap behaves day-2), $ARGX (short, stop $835 intact).
Plan into Monday: long bias above $SPX 7,810–7,820, patient below 7,780. Thin Columbus Day tape — let the levels do the talking.
Good luck 👍
☀️ #Sunday map: green week banked ( $SPX +1.1%, $NQ +0.6%). Isaias hit the Gulf last night — watch 3pm futures for the energy read. #Monday: Columbus Day, bonds closed, thin tape.
#Tuesday: banks kick off ( $JPM/ $GS/ $C/ $WFC) + $UNH/ $JNJ.
#Wednesday: #CPI. tradingnews.com/news/wti-91-…
Good luck 👍
Good to see dip getting bought stocks coming back to green from red
That’s what you need to see into close
Next week - Monday we get buyers step in and we can have a good strong week until last 2 weeks of Oct back to sideways chop/volatility due to mid-term elections Nov 3rd
**1/** 🌙 Evening: semis keep bidding — $SNPS announced a $1B accelerated buyback, SWKS/QRVO merger closed today, $AMD got two PT hikes (Stifel $700, BNP $960), BNP took $NVDA to $345. The deal wave is the theme. investors.com/news/technolog…
**2/** 🌙 Tuesday's map: $STZ AMC ($3.55/$2.54B, 5.5% expected move — correction: I said Wed earlier), $PENG AMC, LW APOG BMO. FOMC minutes Wed 2pm. $AEHR printed AMC, actuals unverified. riskreversal.substack.com/p/…
**3/** 🌙 Energy: Gulf oil exports recovered ABOVE pre-war levels, Bab el-Mandeb retaken — Brent $100.74 (-1.5%), WTI $90.16. Market pricing resolution. XLE watch Tuesday — soft oil drags energy even in a green tape. nypost.com/2026/10/05/world-… Good luck 👍
**Tomorrow carry:** Tuesday's calendar is the action — STZ/ PENG AMC, LW/ APOG BMO, then FOMC minutes Wed 2pm. Morning-call cross-check: $STX short being tested at the $900 reclaim (MS Overweight + GS tactical pick fueled the bounce), $WDC sitting right AT the $440 short trigger — tomorrow decides. $PTC arb spread to $205 intact. $TSLA T2 $380 nearly tagged. AH tape was thin — the action is all in tomorrow's calendar.
$MU monster print: rev $54.2B vs $51B est, EPS $33.42 vs $31.5, GM 87%. Q1 guide $61.5B rev / $38.15 EPS vs $56.6B/$35 cons — smashed the bar that mattered. +0.5% AH.
#Etrade app is acting weird - pricing shown is wrong until you refresh again n again
$NBIS Quarterly looking good, doji and inside candle - Oct-Dec Quarter this can breakout above $300 if gets going - Earnings and price hikes should help them crush ER /
Potential we see pre-ER Guidance raise anytime in coming weeks