AJ Mega

One of the thoughts that has kept me up at night for the last five years is that corporate, institutional, and even nation-state bitcoin adoption might not happen slowly and incrementally, but in one relatively rapid wave. There’s just so much capital out there with negative real yield and so little liquid Bitcoin that you could see a very, very large price dislocation the moment even a fraction of that capital moves into the space in a real way. In many ways, having that in mind leaves you prone to being too early and chasing little adoption bubbles as though they were the cusp of this wave of adoption. But that doesn’t mean that the wave won’t hit. Maybe it’s next year. Maybe it’s two years from now. Hell, maybe we’re seeing the start of it right now. Nobody knows. It will be a combination of macro factors, liquidity, alternative investments, unlocked supply, and even individual decisions - for example, a fund like Berkshire taking a large position. Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t happen. I think, by and large, that since the initial adoption wave of 2021, people have been far, far too bearish, expecting cyclicity and diminishing returns. In many ways, that is the precisely the recipe for a zero-to-one adoption wave and a massive price dislocation in a very short period of time. You can point to the power law, but keep in mind that we can, and have in the past, shot straight from the bottom of the power-law channel to the top, which would mean a 10x move from $60,000 all the way up to $600,000–$700,000 over the course of the next year, making Bitcoin a $10-15 trillion asset and putting it on par with gold. There’s no guarantee that, if such a move occurred, it would ever come back down to the bottom of the channel. It could chop sideways for many years until it reached the middle of the power-law channel, or maybe just below the middle, and then pop back up to the top again. In other words, the power law is not incompatible with a rapid, very large price dislocation that never retraces. The major reason that I go so hard on bears and traders is that trying to time Bitcoin cycles is missing the forest for the trees. The only thing that matters is being as allocated as possible if and when this zero-to-one moment of global adoption occurs. And if you got sidelined because you paid some retard chart trader to try to time the market for you, well, your bloodline deserves to be extinguished.