Ali

🚨And you wonder why things continue to go south on Iran… it is because the analytical frame is totally off. First the public was told (by press and analysts against intervention) that the 40-Day War killed off the restraint oriented leadership in Iran and instead promoted “hardliners and the IRGC.” BUT this thinking misread or ignored (depending on how charitable you want to be) the fact that Khamenei Sr. — who had just ordered the killing of ~40 K Iranian protestors this January and for decades has promoted hardline and confrontational policies like nuclear hedging, missile expansion, unequivocal terror support as well as hardline people for 37 years — was also hardline. He also supported the IRGC’s rise. Such reportage and analysis missed the fact that Khamenei, the hardline clergy, and the Guard Corps are partners in power in the Islamic Republic. Then when major fighting ended this spring and Iran began to reshuffle deck chairs on the titanic, we were told to be wary of this “new” class at the helm. Specifically, analysts trotted out the anecdote that the new SNSC Chief Zolghadr was so hardline that even former IRGC-QF Chief Soleimani had issues with him! This same class kept talking about a “younger” generation at the helm too. This again missed the fact the the most important personalities in Iran are cut from the same cloth, largely ideological 50-70 (-ish) year old Islamist males mostly not from Tehran whose formative experience was the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. Now we are to believe that the musical chairs in Tehran today are the result of the deep-state and old-guard reconsolidating control. Here’s the secret: they never gave it up. The changes you see in Iran are the result of the 12-Day War and 40-Day War having THINNED THE HERD of military and security elites in Iran. Vahidi and Rezaie were involved in Iran-Contra back in the day (the crisis most of Washington has forgotten about). Both of them are also wanted for the 1994 AMIA bombing in Argentina. Both are IRGC veterans. Iran policy by tweet, truth social, or Axios leak will miss all of this. nytimes.com/2026/08/09/world…