All Roads Lead to CN

For the majority of my 20+ years in China, the debate around climate change (and its costs) have largely been secondary to practical challenges (smog/ water quality) This heat wave is changing that. The costs are growing clearer by the day, and that is activating stakeholders

Four ways I see China (potentially) exporting recession: 1) material disruption & Stockpiling 2) factory/ supply chain disruption & inability to deliver to market 3) Consumers stop spending 4) markets draw down further Risk grows as lockdowns continue. scmp.com/comment/opinion/art…

I'm speaking w/ 30+ families planning their China exit. For foreign families, primary concerns are cost of flights, getting to airport & school applications For mixed/ Chinese families, it is the stress of getting Chinese parent/ kids out at all. ft.com/content/b91c64e9-d67c…

While may be an amazing day in #Shanghai, clouds are forming: 1) Restrictions elevated again. 2) Most conversations I have w/ friends & neighbors involve exit plans 3) Businesses failing. No money. Layoffs looming. Stressed entrepreneurs 4) Out of butter #fuckcovid #lockdown

No cash coming in: (1) China has VERY specific invoicing printer that's connected to tax bureau. Must be kept in office. So, either accountant sleeps in office, see pic, or no invoices; (2) payment approvals often req account to be in office. ergo. No cash coming in for 60 days

The system performed exactly to design spec & build. The fact that it failed is a separate issue, and while it's sad and we are living through that failure, don't be confused about who designed the system, what happened, and what options exist for the recovery.

As Shanghai enters 4th week of lockdown, economic disruptions of COVID are only just being reported. Lockdowns are constraining port/ factory operations as workers are unable to leave homes, and trucks are unable to move materials and parts. #inflation cnbc.com/2022/04/15/bernstei…

One of the more interesting, and potentially dangerous, aspects of #Shanghai Lockdown has been the government's loss of the narrative, the widespread rumors, and the outright calls for change. Beside the content itself, what is interesting is that censors are "slow" to remove

Story of #COVID in China is no longer just #Shanghai lockdown, but the impact to global supply chains, inflation, and global economy. As I laid out in a previous thread, as virus spreads across China, risks of significant disruption grow. #inflation cnbc.com/2022/04/13/china-lo…

Reports of areas of Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Wenzhou, and Ningbo going into partial/ full lockdown or widespread testing does not bode well for China. A full blown run through Omi at this point is a potential disaster for China. A short thread on my thoughts