Former HFM | Institutional-grade quant research for individual investors | Not Financial Advice | https://xitter.gq/t.co/7AGyvCDsb5 | Email: [email protected]
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Every call goes up before the print. Every receipt goes up after.
Q2 2026, Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal:
0/6 BEARISH TSLA -14%
0/6 BEARISH INTC erased a 15% rally
0/6 BEARISH SNDK -7%
2/6 BEARISH JEF -10%
2/6 BEARISH CAR -10.19%
2/6 NEUTRAL TER beat called to the penny, sell-off called
3/6 NEUTRAL AAPL -9%
4/6 BULLISH AMZN +6%
5/6 BULLISH NOW +4.22%
5/6 BULLISH FFIV +11.4% off the low
Next up is NVDA, August 26 post-market. The call posts before it.
What else runs here: Institutional quality research that you will only find behind trading desks and prime brokerages.
The edge was never the data. It was who could afford the analysis. Q4 changes that.
Institutional and data licensing: [email protected]
Get on the list first: alphatica.io
$NVDA $SPY $QQQ
From our June 12 research. FINTWIT is getting dumped on right now.
Hopefully you will have money saved to experience the next ATH.
Net Equity Supply Just Flipped Positive for the First Time in 18 Months.
We estimate a ~$114 Billion Per Quarter Was Holding This Market Up
For most of 2025, corporations bought back more stock than they issued. Not by a little. By a factor of two.
We estimate roughly ~$114 billion per quarter in actual share retirements across approximately 504 companies. That is not authorizations. That is shares permanently removed from the market, verified.
Against that, new equity issuance averaged $55-70 billion per quarter. The math was simple: more shares leaving than entering. Every quarter. For five consecutive quarters.
That is the structural bid no one talks about. It does not depend on sentiment or flows. It shows up every quarter and shrinks the float. It is the reason the market kept going up even when every macro indicator said it should not.
The quarterly net equity supply since Q1 2025:
Q1 2025: -$61.9 billion (buyback dominant)
Q2 2025: -$46.4 billion
Q3 2025: -$60.3 billion
Q4 2025: -$47.9 billion
Q1 2026: -$43.6 billion
Five consecutive quarters of net share reduction. The buyback machine absorbed everything the capital markets created and removed tens of billions more on top.
Then Q2 2026 happened.
Gross equity supply surged to $264.6 billion in a single quarter. Three deals drove it: Alphabet $84.75 billion, SpaceX $75 billion, Super Micro $7 billion. All three raised equity to fund AI infrastructure.
For the first time in 18 months, supply overwhelmed the buyback bid. Net equity supply flipped to +$150 billion. The structural buyer that powered the rally was outmatched.
The question is whether Q2 2026 was an event or a regime change.
If it was an event, the buyback machine reasserts itself in Q3 and the structural bid returns. The three mega-deals were generational, not repeatable.
If it was a regime change, the AI infrastructure buildout creates a sustained wave of equity issuance that permanently shifts the supply-demand balance. If every AI company follows the Alphabet playbook of raising equity at scale to fund capex, the buyback bid is no longer the dominant force.
At 65.7% equity allocation and 44% rate hike probability, the pool of available buyers is already stretched. The market does not need to crash for this to matter. It needs new buyers to replace the structural bid that just disappeared.
The easy part of this rally ended the day the supply wave started.
$SPY $QQQ $SPCX
Fintwit is in a panic. This feed has been printing. We saw a screenshot from another account of $SPCX calls full boat? Lord. @grok @alphaticaio needs more exposure on this platform.
NEAR PERFECT ON BOTH REVENUE AND EPS.
TWLO just reported. We called BEAT. It beat on both lines. The stock is down 15.2% after hours to $205.00.
Street EPS: $1.47
Alphatica EPS: $1.62
Actual EPS: $1.65 ✅
Street Revenue: $1.514B
Alphatica Revenue: $1.56B
Actual Revenue: $1.56B ✅
EPS beat the street by 12.2%, cleared the $1.55 beat line we flagged, and came in three cents above our number. Revenue landed exactly on ours, 3.0% above the street and above the top of the company's $1.505B to $1.515B guide.
We said the guide was conservative. Organic growth came in at 16% against an 11% to 12% guide. Non-GAAP operating income was $325.7M against a $285M to $295M guide. Free cash flow was $369.6M.
We also said a stock priced at 40x earnings needed a raise, not just a beat. The beat was clean. Net expansion slipped to 114% from 116% last quarter, and the Q4 guide was not in the release headlines.
Our risk signal priced a 14.0% move. The first move is down 15.2%, just outside it.
The Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal going into the print 3/6 Neutral. Price action expected.
$TWLO
TWLO reports tonight after the close.
Up 127% in a year. Joined the S&P 500 this month. Down 18% from its high going into the print, and trading near $239 today. The last two reports moved the stock 24% to 25% the next day.
Street EPS: $1.47
Street Revenue: $1.514B
Alphatica Estimates:
EPS: $1.62
Revenue: $1.56B
OUR CALL: BEAT ✅
WHY THE BEAT:
Management guided $1.42 to $1.47 on EPS and $1.505B to $1.515B on revenue. The street sits at the top of both. That looks like a high bar until you look at how Twilio guides.
Twilio has beaten EPS in 11 of the last 12 quarters, by an average of 13.6% over the last four. Revenue has beaten all four by 3.7% to 4.8%. Last quarter EPS beat by 11.4% and revenue by 4.8%, and full-year revenue growth guidance went up four points.
The Q3 guide has revenue roughly flat with Q2's $1.499B. Net expansion is 116%, up from 108% a year ago. We are at $1.56B, 3% above the street and 20% above a year ago. We are at $1.62 on EPS, a 10% beat.
WHY THE STOCK IS DOWN:
Twilio joined the S&P 500 on October 6 and fell 5.6% that day as holders took profits. It dropped another 11.2% on October 16. At today's price it trades at about 40x 2026 earnings. A stock priced like that needs a raise, not just a beat.
OUR FOUR SIGNALS:
Earnings Quality: 3/6 NEUTRAL. The income statement turned. Net income went from a $109.4M loss to a $33.8M profit, operating income from a $53.7M loss to $157.8M, and cash flow ran $1.0B against that. The balance sheet held the score back: buybacks outran earnings and the tax line was a drag. Stock comp is down to 11.8% of revenue from 20.9% in 2022.
Disclosure Signal: NEUTRAL, leaning bearish on the annual filing. Tone in the 10-K is the weakest on record after a six-year slide, and litigious language more than doubled. The quarterly filings offset that: stable, with tone better than a year ago and well above 2021 to 2023. A weaker Q3 10-Q moves this to BEARISH.
Prediction Model: BEAT. 11 of 12 quarters.
Earnings Risk Signal: +/-14.0% NEUTRAL. IV spread -0.37, calls and puts priced even. Expected move about $33. The three-year average move is 13.0%. The last two were 23.8% and 24.9%. Options are pricing in a big move and still below what this stock delivered the last two times.
THE SETUP:
The last two reports were followed by five-day gains of 33.1% and 29.1%. After the August report the stock went from $193.20 to $241.28 in one session.
September-quarter reports have averaged +0.4% over the next five days across 10 reports. The recent pattern is stronger than the long one.
Short volume ratio averaged 51.2% over 20 days and hit 66.2% on October 20. That is at the high end of the 45% to 50% market makers usually run. Shorts have been active into the print.
WHAT TO WATCH:
Beat line: $1.55, the top street estimate.
Revenue vs the $1.515B top of the guide.
Organic growth vs the 11% to 12% guide.
The Q4 guide and any raise to full-year numbers.
Options range: about $205 to $272 from today's price.
$1.47 is the bar. The guide is conservative. The stock is priced for a raise. The Q4 guide decides which way it goes.
Not Investment Advice.
$TWLO $SPY
$INTC down 71.85-20.22(-21.96%).
The trading signal was pinned to our profile.
Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal 0/6 Bearish.
Every call goes up before the print. Every receipt goes up after.
Q2 2026, Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal:
0/6 BEARISH TSLA -14%
0/6 BEARISH INTC erased a 15% rally
0/6 BEARISH SNDK -7%
2/6 BEARISH JEF -10%
2/6 BEARISH CAR -10.19%
2/6 NEUTRAL TER beat called to the penny, sell-off called
3/6 NEUTRAL AAPL -9%
4/6 BULLISH AMZN +6%
5/6 BULLISH NOW +4.22%
5/6 BULLISH FFIV +11.4% off the low
Next up is NVDA, August 26 post-market. The call posts before it.
What else runs here: Institutional quality research that you will only find behind trading desks and prime brokerages.
The edge was never the data. It was who could afford the analysis. Q4 changes that.
Institutional and data licensing: [email protected]
Get on the list first: alphatica.io
$NVDA $SPY $QQQ
AMZN just reported. We called BEAT. It missed on EPS and came in line on revenue. The stock is down about 9% after hours.
Street EPS: $1.96
Alphatica EPS: $2.05
Actual EPS: $1.89 ❌
Street Revenue: $202.2B
Alphatica Revenue: $204.8B
Actual Revenue: $201.9B ❌
We were wrong on the call. EPS missed the street by 3.6% and came in 7.8% under ours. Revenue landed on the street and 1.4% under our number.
The part we got right: the operating line. We said Amazon would do about $27.5B of operating income against a $22.5B to $26.5B guide. A 13.9% margin on $201.9B is about $28.1B, above the top of the guide and above our number.
So the miss sits below the operating line. This morning we said the Anthropic mark was more likely a gain than a loss. Net income came in at $20.69B. That does not look like a gain. We will confirm what drove it when the full release posts.
The Q4 guide is $240B to $247B in sales and $28.5B to $33.5B in operating income. The sales midpoint sits below the street.
Our risk signal priced an 8.3% move. The first move is about 9%, just outside it.
Not Investment Advice.
$AMZN
AMZN reports tonight after the close.
Yesterday Alphabet's headline EPS missed by 30% while operating income grew 30%. We called that miss on the SpaceX mark. Amazon carries the same kind of risk with Anthropic. Here is why we think it cuts the other way tonight.
Street EPS: $1.96
Street Revenue: $202.2B
Alphatica Estimates:
EPS: $2.05
Revenue: $204.8B
OUR CALL: BEAT ✅
THE ANTHROPIC QUESTION:
Last quarter Amazon booked $53.4B of pre-tax other income, mostly from Anthropic. That took EPS to $5.75 against a $1.82 street number. The street's $1.96 for tonight leaves the marks out.
The difference from Alphabet: SpaceX is public, and it fell 11.7% in Q3. Anthropic is private. Amazon's stake mostly moves through earnings when there is a new priced deal. The big round was in May, inside Q2. We found no new priced round in Q3. And a footnote in Anthropic's S-1, filed this week, implies its common stock was worth around $1.2 trillion at September 30, above the $965 billion May round.
So the headline risk tonight is a surprise gain, not a loss. The one public mark we can see is Rivian, down 13.9% in the quarter. That is a small line for Amazon.
WHY THE BEAT:
Management guided operating income of $22.5B to $26.5B. Last quarter Amazon did $27.5B. We are at $27.5B again, which is where our $2.05 comes from.
Revenue guide is $197B to $202B. The street is already at the top. Amazon has beaten revenue in each of the last four quarters, by 1.0% to 2.5%. We are at $204.8B, 1.3% above the street and 14% above a year ago.
AWS did $42.2B last quarter, up 37%. The street expects growth around 35% this quarter.
THE WATCH ITEM:
Capex. Amazon spent $131.8B last year, 94% of operating cash flow. Free cash flow was about $7.7B on $77.7B of net income. The 2026 plan is about $220B.
OUR FOUR SIGNALS:
Earnings Quality: 5/6 BULLISH. Net income went from a $2.7B loss to $77.7B in three years. Operating margin rose from 2.4% to 11.2%. Cash flow ran 1.80x earnings. One caveat: $17.3B of last year's pretax income was non-operating. The one NEUTRAL is the tax line, not a red flag.
Disclosure Signal: NEUTRAL, on watch. Amazon's filings are among the most stable we score. Risk factors are essentially unchanged. The concern is quarterly tone, which has slipped year over year and now sits right at our bearish threshold. The Q3 10-Q decides it.
Prediction Model: BEAT on the operating number.
Earnings Risk Signal: +/-8.3% NEUTRAL. IV spread -0.29, calls and puts priced even. Expected move about $20. The three-year average move is 6.0%. The July report moved 15.3% the next day. Options are pricing more than the average, less than last time.
THE SETUP:
September-quarter reports have been Amazon's best, averaging +2.3% over the next five days across 23 reports.
The last four five-day moves: +9.1%, -10.4%, +4.5%, +15.6%.
Short volume ratio averaged 32.6% over 20 days. That is well below the 45% to 50% market makers usually run. Shorts are not pressing.
WHAT TO WATCH:
EPS vs $1.96 on the operating line.
Any Anthropic gain in other income.
AWS growth vs about 35%.
Operating income vs the $26.5B top of the guide.
The capex number and the Q4 guide.
Options range: about $225 to $266 from today's price near $246.
$1.96 is the bar. The operating beat is the call. Anthropic is the wild card, and tonight it is a wild card with upside.
Not Investment Advice.
$AMZN $SPY $QQQ
AMZN reports tonight after the close.
Yesterday Alphabet's headline EPS missed by 30% while operating income grew 30%. We called that miss on the SpaceX mark. Amazon carries the same kind of risk with Anthropic. Here is why we think it cuts the other way tonight.
Street EPS: $1.96
Street Revenue: $202.2B
Alphatica Estimates:
EPS: $2.05
Revenue: $204.8B
OUR CALL: BEAT ✅
THE ANTHROPIC QUESTION:
Last quarter Amazon booked $53.4B of pre-tax other income, mostly from Anthropic. That took EPS to $5.75 against a $1.82 street number. The street's $1.96 for tonight leaves the marks out.
The difference from Alphabet: SpaceX is public, and it fell 11.7% in Q3. Anthropic is private. Amazon's stake mostly moves through earnings when there is a new priced deal. The big round was in May, inside Q2. We found no new priced round in Q3. And a footnote in Anthropic's S-1, filed this week, implies its common stock was worth around $1.2 trillion at September 30, above the $965 billion May round.
So the headline risk tonight is a surprise gain, not a loss. The one public mark we can see is Rivian, down 13.9% in the quarter. That is a small line for Amazon.
WHY THE BEAT:
Management guided operating income of $22.5B to $26.5B. Last quarter Amazon did $27.5B. We are at $27.5B again, which is where our $2.05 comes from.
Revenue guide is $197B to $202B. The street is already at the top. Amazon has beaten revenue in each of the last four quarters, by 1.0% to 2.5%. We are at $204.8B, 1.3% above the street and 14% above a year ago.
AWS did $42.2B last quarter, up 37%. The street expects growth around 35% this quarter.
THE WATCH ITEM:
Capex. Amazon spent $131.8B last year, 94% of operating cash flow. Free cash flow was about $7.7B on $77.7B of net income. The 2026 plan is about $220B.
OUR FOUR SIGNALS:
Earnings Quality: 5/6 BULLISH. Net income went from a $2.7B loss to $77.7B in three years. Operating margin rose from 2.4% to 11.2%. Cash flow ran 1.80x earnings. One caveat: $17.3B of last year's pretax income was non-operating. The one NEUTRAL is the tax line, not a red flag.
Disclosure Signal: NEUTRAL, on watch. Amazon's filings are among the most stable we score. Risk factors are essentially unchanged. The concern is quarterly tone, which has slipped year over year and now sits right at our bearish threshold. The Q3 10-Q decides it.
Prediction Model: BEAT on the operating number.
Earnings Risk Signal: +/-8.3% NEUTRAL. IV spread -0.29, calls and puts priced even. Expected move about $20. The three-year average move is 6.0%. The July report moved 15.3% the next day. Options are pricing more than the average, less than last time.
THE SETUP:
September-quarter reports have been Amazon's best, averaging +2.3% over the next five days across 23 reports.
The last four five-day moves: +9.1%, -10.4%, +4.5%, +15.6%.
Short volume ratio averaged 32.6% over 20 days. That is well below the 45% to 50% market makers usually run. Shorts are not pressing.
WHAT TO WATCH:
EPS vs $1.96 on the operating line.
Any Anthropic gain in other income.
AWS growth vs about 35%.
Operating income vs the $26.5B top of the guide.
The capex number and the Q4 guide.
Options range: about $225 to $266 from today's price near $246.
$1.96 is the bar. The operating beat is the call. Anthropic is the wild card, and tonight it is a wild card with upside.
Not Investment Advice.
$AMZN $SPY $QQQ
TWLO reports tonight after the close.
Up 127% in a year. Joined the S&P 500 this month. Down 18% from its high going into the print, and trading near $239 today. The last two reports moved the stock 24% to 25% the next day.
Street EPS: $1.47
Street Revenue: $1.514B
Alphatica Estimates:
EPS: $1.62
Revenue: $1.56B
OUR CALL: BEAT ✅
WHY THE BEAT:
Management guided $1.42 to $1.47 on EPS and $1.505B to $1.515B on revenue. The street sits at the top of both. That looks like a high bar until you look at how Twilio guides.
Twilio has beaten EPS in 11 of the last 12 quarters, by an average of 13.6% over the last four. Revenue has beaten all four by 3.7% to 4.8%. Last quarter EPS beat by 11.4% and revenue by 4.8%, and full-year revenue growth guidance went up four points.
The Q3 guide has revenue roughly flat with Q2's $1.499B. Net expansion is 116%, up from 108% a year ago. We are at $1.56B, 3% above the street and 20% above a year ago. We are at $1.62 on EPS, a 10% beat.
WHY THE STOCK IS DOWN:
Twilio joined the S&P 500 on October 6 and fell 5.6% that day as holders took profits. It dropped another 11.2% on October 16. At today's price it trades at about 40x 2026 earnings. A stock priced like that needs a raise, not just a beat.
OUR FOUR SIGNALS:
Earnings Quality: 3/6 NEUTRAL. The income statement turned. Net income went from a $109.4M loss to a $33.8M profit, operating income from a $53.7M loss to $157.8M, and cash flow ran $1.0B against that. The balance sheet held the score back: buybacks outran earnings and the tax line was a drag. Stock comp is down to 11.8% of revenue from 20.9% in 2022.
Disclosure Signal: NEUTRAL, leaning bearish on the annual filing. Tone in the 10-K is the weakest on record after a six-year slide, and litigious language more than doubled. The quarterly filings offset that: stable, with tone better than a year ago and well above 2021 to 2023. A weaker Q3 10-Q moves this to BEARISH.
Prediction Model: BEAT. 11 of 12 quarters.
Earnings Risk Signal: +/-14.0% NEUTRAL. IV spread -0.37, calls and puts priced even. Expected move about $33. The three-year average move is 13.0%. The last two were 23.8% and 24.9%. Options are pricing in a big move and still below what this stock delivered the last two times.
THE SETUP:
The last two reports were followed by five-day gains of 33.1% and 29.1%. After the August report the stock went from $193.20 to $241.28 in one session.
September-quarter reports have averaged +0.4% over the next five days across 10 reports. The recent pattern is stronger than the long one.
Short volume ratio averaged 51.2% over 20 days and hit 66.2% on October 20. That is at the high end of the 45% to 50% market makers usually run. Shorts have been active into the print.
WHAT TO WATCH:
Beat line: $1.55, the top street estimate.
Revenue vs the $1.515B top of the guide.
Organic growth vs the 11% to 12% guide.
The Q4 guide and any raise to full-year numbers.
Options range: about $205 to $272 from today's price.
$1.47 is the bar. The guide is conservative. The stock is priced for a raise. The Q4 guide decides which way it goes.
Not Investment Advice.
$TWLO $SPY
SPY OPEN | Thursday October 29 | Day after the Fed
$769.69. Down 0.34%. The Fed held. SPY closed up. This morning it gave it back.
YESTERDAY:
At 10:09AM SPY was $770.54, sitting on the line before the Fed. The Fed held. SPY closed $772.31.
This morning it's back under $770.
WED 10:09AM → THU 11:13AM:
Price: $770.54 → $769.69
Composite: -8.3 → -11.2 (neutral)
Options surface: -$528M → -$1.03B
Engine: -2M → -2M
Net premium: +$294M → +$263M
Premium: 71% calls → 63% calls
Worse underneath. The surface nearly doubled in negative gamma. Price slipped below $770 and $770 itself turned negative.
THE FED PREMIUM CAME OUT:
ATM IV: 14.9% calls, 14.7% puts. Down from 16.2/16.1 yesterday morning.
Realized vol: 9.1%.
The event passed and the premium came out. New calls are opening 6 to 1 over closing again, up from 1 to 1 yesterday morning.
WHERE PRICE IS SITTING:
Just below a thin positive zone.
Above:
$770 (-$43M)
$775 (+$47M)
$780 (+$105M), the first real magnet
$800 (+$172M), the biggest positive strike on the board
Positive gamma from $770 to $790: about $410M, down from $657M yesterday.
THE MONTH-END CLIFF:
$765 (-$271M). Now the biggest strike on the board. Max pain.
-$200M of it expires tomorrow, the last trading day of October.
Price is $4.69 above it.
BELOW:
$767 (-$115M)
$765 (-$271M)
$760 (-$162M)
$750 (-$207M)
About $1.4B of negative gamma from $740 to $771.
$775 is the line. $769.69 is price. $765 is max pain and the cliff. $780 is the magnet.
The Fed is out of the way. What's left is month-end, and the biggest strike on the board sits $5 under price with most of it expiring tomorrow.
$SPY $QQQ
$LLY raised FY26 revenue guidance by $5.5B. The implied Q4 EPS is about $11.09 vs $10.21 consensus, so Q4 estimates need to rise about 9% just to match guidance. The stock is through its $1,300 range ceiling at about 30x FY27 EPS. The watch item: realized prices fell 15% while volume grew 53%.
Short Interest is elevated as well which is delusional thinking in our opinion.
Analysts are behind. They are going to raise the price (again).
