interstice (@an_interstice) header
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Baby you light my fire

Joined September 2015
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New IMPORTANT blog post: THE GIANT MEASUREMENT AT THE END OF TIME In which I give an overview of my preferred solution to the problem of defining wavefunction branches, namely, taking a big measurement late in time and projecting the results backwards. thermontology.com/posts/phys…
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the democrats are more pro-AI-regulation so this is me xitter.gq/jdcmedlock/status/2117…
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what can you trust in this world if not ceramics-based anecdotes?
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We at AIFP are spooked by this information. IF (big IF) Anthropic really is imminently about to meet the RSP threshold of 2x acceleration over baseline, then it seems timelines to full RSI and superintelligence may be very short indeed. For example if we naively optimize the AIFM parameters to achieve 2x acceleration over baseline progress in Jan 2027, we get superintelligence sooner than depicted in AI 2027. We are thinking harder and longer about this now and will hopefully have a lengthier update on our thinking to share in the next week.
Anthropic updated its S1 this morning. Notable additions re automated AI R&D and human oversight of it: "[...] our internal estimates and our expectations regarding future models, rather than our current models, indicate that we may imminently meet our Responsible Scaling Policy’s definition of 'dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.' We have not designated any of our current models as exceeding this threshold, and we continue to assess the underlying data. We are also evaluating the implications of meeting the AI research and development capability threshold and will release further reports in the future as we set forth in our Responsible Scaling Policy." "We are also considering additional measures, including updates to our Responsible Scaling Policy, to require human review and approval of certain decisions in our research and development processes as our models perform an increasing share of that work." "We believe our investments in safety techniques will enable us to manage these risks and responsibly realize substantially more leverage from Claude than we do today in developing AI models. However, we do not anticipate being able to safely use Claude to fully autonomously design and build successive generations of frontier models without meaningful human supervision or understanding, if and when that becomes technically possible. Accordingly, we are considering updates to our Responsible Scaling Policy to keep humans in control of frontier model development at Anthropic." sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
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Bousso and Susskind instead define a branching relation by defining a set of partial measurements by only going part-way up the future causal diamond boundary. This corresponds to photons that escape earlier VS later.
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This concludes my treatement of the quantum measurement problem. Next I'll finish my physics posts by talking about locality, holographic entropy bounds, and heat death. LW crosspost: lesswrong.com/s/Dh5iSYhABXWe…
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