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Two Fed officials voted for a hike on Oct 28. Bettors now put 77.5% on one in December.
Buy Yes or No on this market in Nina. Or turn on a Sentry in the Nina App, and it pings you when the odds move or news breaks.
Hike or hold in December: what's your call?
Hundreds of prediction markets. Odds alone won't tell you which ones matter.
Read them in 4 steps in Nina's Predict tab:
1. Odds, volume and a one-line read on every event
2. Rank events by how much money is actually trading
3. Nina's analysis: what the odds already price in, and what would flip them
4. A Sentry that pings you when the odds move
Polymarket just opened a market on @AnthropicAI 's first day of trading.
It asks which day $ANT starts trading on Nasdaq: Nov 20 leads at 24%, Nov 19 at 23%, Nov 24 at 13.65%. No IPO by Nov 30: 10.5%. Anthropic hasn't set a date yet.
What's your pick?
The Fed decides Wednesday. @Polymarket gives a hold 93.65%.
Polymarket asks what the Fed does at its Oct 28 meeting: no change 93.65% (94.5% on Oct 26), a 25 bps hike 6.5% (5.5% on Oct 26).
That's about a 1-in-15 shot at a hike. Hold or hike: what's your call?
A stock just fell 12% in a week. Bargain, or the start of something worse?
Nina's stock page shows:
1. Distance to support (where buyers stepped in before) and resistance
2. RSI near 30, the usual oversold line
3. 50-day average vs. the 200-day
4. Days to earnings: a report can break any level
Not ready? Let set a Sentry.
Earnings week. When a report lands matters as much as what's in it.
Check before each one:
· Pre-market or after the close: that's when the move shows up
· The EPS (earnings per share) estimate
· Next-quarter guidance, which often moves the stock more than EPS
· How close the stock sits to support going in
A Sentry catches the reaction.
Most bad trades go wrong before you hit buy.
The path to a trade in Nina:
1. The feed says why each stock is there
2. Pick the product. A tokenized stock tracks the price. A TradFi perp adds leverage and can be liquidated.
3. Before you confirm: order type, margin mode, leverage, fees, liquidation price
Polymarket now gives a Fed rate hold 93.5% odds.
The Fed decides Oct 28. Odds of no change rose from 87.5% (Oct 22) to 93.5%, and a 25 bps hike fell from 11.5% to 5.5%.
Kalshi prices the hold at 94%.
Is there any data left that could flip it?
Buyers put $361.3M into $TSLA on report day. Then Tesla beat estimates ($0.48 a share vs $0.45 expected) and its @HyperliquidX perp slid 4.64%, from $386.47 to $368.54. $IBM also beat and slid 5.32%.
@Polymarket odds Netanyahu is PM after Israel’s Oct 27 vote: 26.5%, down from 30.5% (Oct 16).
Odds $BTC drops to $82,000 by Oct 25: 77.5%. BTC: $82,416.
The most-traded prediction market in Nina's feed today: will the Fed change rates on Oct 28? $1.61M traded.
Polymarket: 88.5% no change, 11.5% a 25 bps hike. The Fed already hiked in September.
December flips it: 77.5% for a hike.
Nina's Predict tab shows odds, volume, what could move them, and a Sentry that alerts you when they do.
$MU fell 0.98% Tuesday, yet buyers beat sellers by $173.0M, the most on Nina’s radar. $NVDA got the most selling: $365.5M.
$MU closed at $896.07, $38.07 above key support at $858.
Polymarket odds the Bank of Canada hikes rates Oct 28: 71.5%, up from 18.6% (Oct 16).
$BTC is $82,758. Odds it hits $85K in October: 60.5%. To drop to $80K: 55.5%.
$NVDA rose Monday, yet sellers beat buyers by $355.1M, the most on Nina's radar.
The most buying went to $TSLA: +$359.6M, a day before earnings (Oct 21).
Polymarket odds that $BTC falls to $80K in October: 69.5%, up from 65.0% (Oct 16). BTC is $81,719, 2.1% above.
Bolsonaro's odds to win Brazil's Oct 25 runoff: 76.95%, down from 82.95% (Oct 15).
Every chip name on Nina's radar fell Friday. But the money didn't leave evenly.
Net selling: $NVDA −$291.5M, $INTC −$194.0M, $AVGO −$187.5M
Net buying: $QCOM +$56.3M, $LRCX +$54.3M, $TSM +$51.6M
LRCX reports Oct 21 and closed just $0.80 above key support at $263.14.
Also: Fed October no-hike odds hit 87.5%. BTC holds near $82.7K.
PPI: +6.3% y/y vs. 5.3% expected. Fed October hike odds fell anyway: 23.5% → 14.5%.
Where the money went:
In: Crypto stocks +$374M, 17 of 20 up. AI hardware flipped to +$1.11B net buying, a day after −$2.13B.
Out: Energy −$103M, 0 of 8 up.
Three to watch:
$MU: from the pool's top net seller to its top net buyer (+$492M). Held support. Now $858.
$TSM: beat by 3.4%, fell 1.8%, closed under old support $423.39. Next: $407.13.
$DELL: net bought 11.3% of volume — and −6.8%. Support $452.42, 4.4% below.
Polymarket:
$BTC above $82K priced 17.5% → settled Yes (the day before: 89% → No). Today's line: 59.5%, spot $85 above.
