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Joined May 2009
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In 2025, @jonbma and I did something terrifying
We already had 7-figures of ARR and growing
But something didn't feel right
We wanted to do something....crazier
We shared a memo with our team changing the direction of the company
Half of them left
But in July 2026, we onboarded 20+ institutions onto our investment research AI
Below is the memo we shared
Ad astra per aspera 🚀
Anthony Yim retweeted
To early-stage founders, bet on yourselves!
Ben Horowitz's message to early-stage founders on betting on yourself, the doubts that do the most damage, and why fear means you're doing it right:
"Your job is to make your bet pay off. You believed in yourself enough to do it. There are gonna be many times when you question that bet and you question that belief, but that gets you nothing."
"The doubts are gonna be there. Ignore the doubts. The worst doubts aren't the ones people put on you. It's the ones that you put on yourself. Every entrepreneur has them."
"I spent a lot of time with Mark Zuckerberg when he was 22 years old and he had a tremendous doubt about whether he was gonna make it."
"It's not what you feel. It's what you do. You're gonna feel scared. If your guts aren't boiling, you're not even trying at this thing."
@bhorowitz w/ @speedrun GP @andrewchen
Anthony Yim retweeted
Anthropic's IPO was filed on October 26, 2026, and I value it's equity at about $1.475 trillion, which will inform my decision on whether to buy or sell its shares. To make your Anthropic choice, though, you should value it yourself, and I will provide a story and input structure to help you. bit.ly/3UTo3Gj
Anthony Yim retweeted
All this hand-wringing over capex from Facebook, Microsoft, Google and other new entrants is unnecessary.
When products are this good and improving this fast, we won't overbuild; if anything, we'll be constrained by physics and regulation.
And these machines will last a decade, as software gets relentlessly more efficient and we find creative uses for older clusters.
Earnings will be absurd in the next five years, as companies like Microsoft, Uber, Tesla, Robinhood, and Meta have revenue per employee DOUBLE every 3-4 years.
Pay attention to revenue and earnings per employee.
Anthony Yim retweeted
So they pay you a $150K salary just to be a middleman between Claude and your boss?
Anthony Yim retweeted
"The best founders are worldbuilders. They are able to envision a future world that doesn’t exist yet and share the intense excitement of that vision with investors."
Anthony Yim retweeted
Patrick Collison on the excuse founders hear every single decade
▫️ 80s: Japan will win everything
▫️ 90s: Microsoft will dominate
▫️ 2000s: the dotcom crash
▫️ 2010s: Google, Facebook, funding is about to dry up
▫️ now: the AI labs
for almost 50 years it was empirically a great time to start a company
via @0x_mjaka
Is the AI labs fear any different?
Anthony Yim retweeted
Reminder: Anthropic S-1 dropping will be a nothing burger to markets because it’s BACKWARDS looking.
Look at @arakharazian and @tryramp AI spend on Ant / OpenAI as closer leading indicator of Anthropic ARR spend ramp.
Or alt data trackers like @tickerplus
To add, it’s extra tricky to spot the problem sometimes because guardians can sound smart and reasonable but are actually hurtful to the fighting and max risk-on spirit
Startups should staff themselves with Warriors, and root out Guardians or Caretakers.
Bad performance is easy to spot. Mediocre performance and complacency is harder to spot. Mediocre performers will never achieve greatness. They will always be Guardians at best.
Warriors become complacent when high performance shifts to autopilot. Metrics may still look strong, but the commitment is no longer the same, and the changes in behavior are subtle. Meeting goals doesn’t mean someone isn’t complacent. Complacent Warriors lose the will to fight and become Guardians themselves.
Startups operate in a highly competitive environment. You are battling both incumbents and other startups, so you need to recruit, retain, and reward Warriors. Send the Guardians and Caretakers to your competitors.
Why hasn't the term "Eval Driven Development" been popularized yet?
Take the best practices from XP/TDD but instead of tests, define the outcome and just let agents do their thing.
I know people have been doing this for months but haven't seen this term used in this way
SF anthropological study ep 1
No tokenmaxxing still
Subject behaving in self-harm activities by playing some 2010s-style FarmVille game
Won’t survive AI apocalypse
Anthony Yim retweeted
Largely agree.
1/ Agentic commerce's impact on $AMZN
Ads rev ($100B rev, or est. 50% of operating profit): real disintermediation risk.
GMV: depends. If $AMZN is truly "cheaper, faster, better", an objective agent should send more GMV to $AMZN. But I personally doubt $AMZN’s GMV share grows meaningfully in an agentic world. Just look at the $50B in marketing exp. $AMZN throws out today - large platforms have an "unfair advantage" bc they can afford higher CAC.
Long-term value / customer ownership: intrinsic value should go down if $AMZN loses the top of the funnel. You may still get the trx and the buyer’s info, but you lose browsing behavior, retargeting, cross-sell opps, and ultimately the customer relationship.
Potential upside: $AMZN can open up its best-in-class logistics backbone to other merchants = new rev stream (which it is already doing a little).
The risk feels more skewed to the downside, imho: top of funnel → infrastructure layer.
2/ What happens to ads as an industry
Under agentic commerce, ad spend and take rate - which ppl historically think of as distinct business models - will converge.
In a fully agentic world, ads as an industry could theoretically "disappear." But that doesn’t mean the ad dollars (~$300B in the US) disappear. Sellers will still need (and want) to pay digital tax on distribution. Whether that comes in the form of ads or a take rate is largely semantic.
Take OTAs ($BKNG $EXPE) as an example. Say half of their bookings and traffic are direct, and the other half indirect, mostly through $Google. For the indirect portion, the companies basically break even given the high CPCs they pay $Google. Take rate on the direct portion is ~15%. So even though the cost is paid in the form of ads, the equivalent take rate OTAs pay Google is effectively ~15%.
An agent charging 2%, 5%, or eventually 10%+ of GMV is therefore not necessarily introducing a new cost. It may simply be repackaging an existing acquisition cost from CPC into CPA / take rate. And agents @Muse will probably start cheap.
3/ What holds true no matter what (pre- or post-agentic world):
A. Owning top-of-funnel customer intent = pricing power. Losing direct traffic means losing much more than the immediate transaction.
B. Commerce winning formula (is always) = cheaper, faster, better.
++
A more verbose version: robonomics.substack.com/p/ag…
Amazon is right to block Muse.
“One, you do not get any revenue from your ad business, and Amazon’s ad business is now larger than their e-commerce profits.
The second thing is the basket size gets reduced. If I do this, I just order the thing.
If I block them, they will probably come to me anyway, because I am Amazon. So I have leverage.” @rodriscoll
Love to hear your thoughts @juokaz @FredaDuan @scotwingo @harleyf
Anthony Yim retweeted
Every single normie review of AI agents is basically “wow it manages my emails and cancels my subscriptions”
Still so early
Anthony Yim retweeted
Get ready for all of the investors in frontier model companies to suddenly flip to regulatory capture mode today
Their investments in frontier model companies are currently at risk/capped because the biggest buyers of tokens are embracing open-source models: vertical AI companies, the government and enterprises
That’s all this is about: stopping open source — which I’ve been saying on the pod for two years
If you want safety, you want disclosure — and open source is the ultimate disclosure process
BREAKING: @AnthropicAI S1 is dropping tomorrow and @jonbma just released his full financial model in anticipation of the release.
Tweak to your heart's content!
HERE'S THE ANTHROPIC MODEL: Anthropic will go public at $2T in Oct '26 and will be a $1T ARR company and $10T+ company Dec' 2030 as the winner of AI.
Here's how Anthropic gets to $1T ARR in 2030:
- 2026E: $125B ARR +14x YoY w/ 5 GW live
- 2027E: $266B ARR + 114% YoY w/ 10 GW live
- 2028E: $462B ARR +73% YoY w/ 16 GW live
- 2029E: $700B ARR +52% YoY w/ 23 GW live
- 2030E: $1T ARR + 42% YoY w/ 30 GW live
I'm dropping my full Excel model modeling out:
- ARR by business model (e.g Consumer, B2B, Enterprise, API)
- API business broken down by model type (e.g Fable 5.1, Mythos, Opus, Sonnet)
- Training costs and inference cost as a % of revenue
- Gross Margin ($ ARR per MW and Cost of Compute per MW) as well as forecasting GW secured.
- Net ARR (vs Gross ARR reported by trackers) removing marketplace pay out, Meta, Chinese AI labs
- and more
I also share the @artemis thesis for WHY Anthropic is the AWS of AI and winner of AI in the enterprise (and open source and ANT / OpenAI can win)
Get the full model here: artemis.ai/anthropic-thesis
Full Disclosure: I don't have inside information. I took what's publicly available from the July '26 @SemiAnalysis_ model and added my own judgement based on public information and my own world views. I've spent a life time modeling as a former HF and VC analyst. I'll update the model as soon as the S-1 drops.
Anthony Yim retweeted
BREAKING: Anthropic estimated Net ARR (removing Meta, payout to MSFT / AMZN / GCP) is $41B Q2'26, $62B Q3'26, $82B Q4'26 from @jonbma.
HERE'S ANTHROPIC NET ARR: Anthropic Gross ARR reported to be $65B in July '26 and at $10B net new ARR / month you get $85B Q3'26 and $115B Q4'26.
If you remove:
- Meta ($5B ARR)
- Payout to AWS Bedrock / GCP (20-25% API volume assume 20% take rate
- 2% of all API volume is Chinese labd distilling.
You get to:
$62B Net ARR Q3'26
$82B Net ARR Q4'26.
At 20x EV/ARR that implies $1.3T Q3'26 numbers and $1.6T Q4'26.
Makes the pre-IPO price of $1.4T on @prestocks make sense.
