Data-driven former CPA, CA and current Toronto REALTOR® offering balanced views of the market — not an "only goes up" industry hype man
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Joined June 2009
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Freehold MOI has been flat the last 3 weeks. However, under the hood there, both listings (now 100 below the fall peak from 4 weeks ago) and sales (fall peak appears to have been 1 week ago. They are just ⬇️at the same rate so no MOI change.
Condo sales also peaked 1 week ago, but the ⬇️ in sales was > the fall in listings so MOI ⬆️. /3
Weekly 416 Active Listings and MOI update 🧵
There's a lot of flat happening right now. Condos have been between 6508 and 6537 in the last 4 weeks. /1
RECO setting out some guidance on AI. Fourth one is "who would ever do this?" to me, but maybe I'm being naive.
Weekly look at 416 Active Listings and MOI.🧵
With Freeholds, the 4199 is ⬆️+73, after two down weeks (leading up to and after Thanksgiving). Below the 2026 peak of 4,247 from 3 weeks ago, but give it a week or two and it might reach it (judging by last year's pattern). /1
MOI held constant for Freeholds, at 3.8 like early July. For Condos it dipped below 6 for the first time in 6 weeks.
Surprisingly to me, Condo rolling 30 sales grew 6.5% week over week, compared to just 1.6% for Freeholds (which may have reached its fall peak after 7 consecutive weekly increases. /3
Scott Ingram REALTOR® retweeted
🎂 Babies born on leap day (February 29) had the least common birthday in Canada from 1995 to 2025, while those born on September 20 had the most common.
Learn more: www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1…
ALT How common is your birthday? Heat map showing birthdates, ranked from least to most common, based on the daily number of live births in Canada from 1995 to 2025. February 29 is the least common birthday, and September 20 is the most common.
Active Listings were ⬇️49 on Freeholds. Not sure yet if that's just low after Thanksgiving, or seasonal decline has started. Let's wait until next week.
Levels sitting below 2025 for the past couple of weeks. /2
Weekly 416 Active Listings and MOI charts.
Rolling 30 days of Sales are growing so we've good noticeable MOI ⬇️for both property types. 🧵/1
Scott Ingram REALTOR® retweeted
I did some number crunching this weekend.
In 2012, Ontario filed roughly as many bankruptcies as consumer proposals.
Today, it’s 79% proposals to 21% bankruptcies, and in August, bankruptcies grew six times faster than proposals.
Homeowners filing a consumer proposal with us who owe more than the house is worth:
2015: about 1 in 15
2022: zero
2026: more than 1 in 5
Share of insolvent Ontarians in our offices who owned a home:
2022: one in sixty
2026: one in nine
Homeowners avoided insolvency for a decade.
They’re coming back.
TRREB voting soon on some new fees (shoved in with other things). Barriers to entry upping, with a proposed entrance fee of nearly $800.
Admin fees for transferring brokerages and coming back to TRREB would go up also.
So the drops in listings, combined with increases in rolling 30 days of sales (a large +11.8% for Freeholds, more modest +1.8% for Condos) has led to MOI ⬇️for both. /3
