Atalantis7

Inside the Billionaire Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund. Run by a 24-Year-Old. Camilo Saravia (@curiouscamilo), founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic prediction markets fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital. "I don't want more capital. I'm extremely long our equity." We cover: - Why insider trading in prediction markets is terrible for liquidity and GOOD for society - Prediction markets as cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop and disinformation - Why he turned down the allocator question entirely, and the "Goldilocks zone" that makes a fund this size work - His research team's actual mission statement: "collapse the entropy of the internet into signal" - Trading Spotify streams and measuring how fast Mamdani viralizes vs Cuomo on TikTok - Why beating earnings has almost no correlation with the stock going up, and why only testing reveals that - Mention markets as literal next-word prediction, and how makers got sniped out - Hiring missionaries with a mercenary work style, and why every hire takes a pay cut vs Citadel, Jane Street, Wintermute - Daniel Howard's mandate: faster, more risk, more aggression. "They haven't backed me to print 7% APY" - The abundance mindset, from a kid with immigrant parents sitting across from generational wealth - A venture mindset applied to public equities: pulling the thread from free cash flow down to Glassdoor culture - Why you never need to be binarily right: buy at 20, sell at 40, never wait for resolution Highlights: (00:00) Intro (00:56) Taker vs maker, reflexive vs proactive: the strategy map (03:08) What makes an event contract different from an equity (04:53) Insider trading in prediction markets: bug or feature (08:18) Cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop (12:43) Where edge actually comes from (14:19) The dataset: billions of records a day (17:44) Building a money management business from an empty office (21:34) Why asset management competes with software as a business model (23:51) How to underwrite elite talent (25:50) Missionaries vs mercenaries, and why the tension is the point (30:54) Recruiting against Citadel money (and losing on salary every time) (37:32) "We can't compromise speed": the Daniel Howard mandate (44:45) The abundance mindset (48:28) "Why should I invest?" / "I don't want more capital" (50:12) Collapsing the entropy of the internet (51:04) Spotify streams, TikTok virality, and mention markets (53:17) The one data provider he'd long if he could (55:49) There's a business behind everything (01:00:07) How to find the real drivers in any market (01:04:04) A venture mindset applied to public equities (01:10:06) Prediction markets 101: where to actually start (01:12:05) Why you don't need to be binarily right (01:13:19) Final question: building personal edge against the models

$2 Trillion has been ERASED from the U.S. stock market today.

"The best setup in our entire arsenal is named "avoid." We do nothing with it by definition of the category.” Forswear the Filter (03 of 06) (link below)

The first ten min carry the best message I’ve heard in a long time

"The Next Bottleneck After HBM Is HBF"... A Computing Pioneer's Prediction "I have been consistently paying close attention to High Bandwidth Flash (HBF). I'm also collaborating with semiconductor companies on this. HBF is highly likely to stand at the center of the next bottleneck — a surge in demand." David Patterson, professor at UC Berkeley, Turing Award laureate, and widely recognized as the architect of RISC (Reduced Instruction Set Computing — an approach that simplifies instructions to improve processing efficiency), made these remarks on April 30 (local time) when he met with reporters in San Francisco immediately after delivering a keynote at the Dreamy Next event. Asked about what comes after HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which is currently in a supply-constrained bottleneck, Professor Patterson answered that HBF will emerge as the next focus. Specifically, he said, "Although a number of technical challenges still remain, the HBF being developed by companies such as SK hynix and SanDisk is a meaningful alternative in that it can deliver large capacity with low power consumption," adding, "Going forward, how efficiently data can be stored and delivered will become the critical variable." This past March, SK hynix announced that it had joined hands with U.S. flash memory company SanDisk to drive the global standardization of HBF. Unlike HBM, which stacks DRAM, HBF is built by stacking NAND flash — a non-volatile memory. Their roles are also distinct. While HBM serves as a fast computation aid, HBF is focused on storing the vast amounts of data that AI processes at high capacity. HBF is drawing attention as the AI inference market grows. The AI market is broadly divided into learning (training) and inference. Training is the process of feeding massive amounts of data to teach an AI model. Inference is the stage in which results are derived based on the trained data. In inference AI, the ability to continuously store and retrieve vast amounts of intermediate data — such as prior conversations, judgment outcomes, and task context — is crucial. This is because AI carries out reasoning by remembering context and building upon it. The problem is that all of this data is difficult to fit into HBM. Since HBM is optimized for handling data used immediately, its capacity itself is inherently limited. Moreover, given its high price, processing the enormous amounts of context data generated during inference using HBM alone would impose significant cost burdens. As a result, an environment has formed in which both HBM and HBF are needed simultaneously — a kind of division of labor. Domestic experts in Korea also anticipate that the importance of HBF will grow going forward. At an HBF research and technology development strategy briefing held this past February, Kim Jung-ho, professor in the School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering at KAIST, stated, "If the central processing unit (CPU) was the core in the PC era and low-power technology was the core in the smartphone era, memory will be the core of the AI era," adding, "What determines speed is HBM, and what determines capacity is HBF." He further predicted, "From 2038 onward, demand for HBF will surpass that of HBM."

Crypto traders, time to pivot your skillset? selfishly hope you don’t

This is one of the most reliable post-earnings setups in the market, and it's invisible to anyone not watching the skew. Setup: a stock is rallying into earnings. Skew shifts hard toward calls. Implied vol on upside strikes is bid. Retail and momentum funds are piling into upside calls. What's happening underneath: dealers are short those calls. To hedge, they buy stock. Lots of it. The stock keeps grinding higher, partly because of the dealer demand. Earnings prints. Even if the number is decent, vol gets smashed. That's mechanical — earnings vol always resets. Now the dealers have a problem. The calls they're short have just lost their Greeks. The delta on those calls is collapsing ... so what was a 30-delta call yesterday is a 10-delta call this morning. The stock they bought to hedge those calls? They no longer need it. So they sell. If the earnings number wasn't strong enough to push the stock through those call strikes and keep the deltas alive, the unwind cascades. Vol crushed. Delta crushed. Dealer hedges dumped into the tape. The stock rolls over even though the report wasn't bad. This is why "good earnings" stocks sometimes drop 8% the next day. It isn't the news. It's the structural unwind. If you see skew piling into upside before a print, you know the setup is loaded. Whether to fade it is a separate question. But the mechanics are real, and shows up over and over. We saw it with $TSLA and are seeing it with $MSFT overnight.

The KelpDAO hack is a clear bottom signal or the entire industry goes to zero no in between

STRC: good foresight from Cat that the next logical iteration are weekly dividend payments. my fear is that this will further subdue BTC's volatility and we may just remain in an endless range for longer. sometimes i just wish he would sell and let it sink to make it a 100 vol asset again.