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$ASTS: 🚨CLEAR STREET REITERATES BUY RATING AND $115 PRICE TARGET AST Moves Toward Full Integration Summary While the market is overly focused on launch bottlenecks, AST's announcement of its own reusable 20-ton rocket, Blacklift, moves it toward full vertical integration and addresses the longer-term concern. Powered by Firefly Aerospace's (NASDAQ: FLY, NC) Miranda and Vira engines, Blacklift targets first flights in late 2028 with up to five BlueBirds per launch. Key points heading into 3Q26 earnings Monday, November 9, after the close: Full integration: Blacklift would complete AST's end-to-end model Near-term relief: Watch for AST's 2027E–2028E launch outlook Sovereignty: Expect updates on sovereign deals as governments seek network control. Spectrum: Separate from earnings, FCC action on Ligado's pending SkyTerra Next application could come at any time. We reiterate our Buy rating and $115 price target (20x 2029E adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.1B vs. ~6x at $30 today). Key Points Full integration costs ~$1.3B. Blacklift would complete AST's end-to-end model and cut reliance on Falcon 9, with SpaceX (SPCX, Buy) reportedly turning away new bookings beyond 2028 (Bloomberg). The Firefly deal includes ~$800M upfront ($400M cash; 10–14M Class A shares) for a perpetual engine license, $250M for the first three rockets' engines, and $250M for three years of engineering support. That is ~$900M in cash and ~3% dilution, vs. $3.7B in pro forma 2Q26 cash and restricted cash. Near-term relief depends on two rockets returning. ULA's Vulcan targets a return to flight Friday, November 13, after a nine-month grounding. A successful flight would indirectly help AST by freeing Falcon 9 capacity, though AST has not publicly confirmed Vulcan contracts. A December New Glenn return would restore AST's high-capacity option at up to eight BlueBirds per launch. Sovereignty is a growing tailwind. Vodafone's (NASDAQ: VOD, NC) Tim Boddy said at Network X in Vienna that the AST venture is a stronger sovereign option than Starlink or Amazon, as its core network and radio infrastructure sit in Europe under the Luxembourg JV deal (Light Reading). Spectrum is the opportunity the market is missing. AST's Ligado agreement gives it 80+ years of rights to up to 45 MHz (40 MHz of L-band) for $550M at closing, pending FCC approval. SkyTerra Next would put L-band payloads on 96 AST satellites. Iridium (IRDM, Neutral) opposes, alleging spectrum hoarding; Ligado disputes it. At 45 MHz x 340M POPs x $1.10 per MHz-pop (SpaceX paid ~$1.00 for EchoStar's 50 MHz, ~$17B), approval implies up to $16.8B in value, vs. an ~$11.7B market cap at $30.