Portfolio Manager at Blockforce Capital and author of The Node Ahead newsletter
California, USA
Joined October 2013
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1/8
Bitcoin may have a much larger role in traditional investment portfolios than most investors currently appreciate.
The conventional comparison is with gold. But I think bitcoin's relationship with fixed income could ultimately be just as important.
Here's why. 🧵
7/8
The global bond market is roughly $160 trillion.
BTC doesn't need to replace bonds. Small allocation changes will have a meaningful impact on demand.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio may not disappear. But its composition could look very different over the next decade.
8/8
In my latest issue, I examine the changing economics of the Treasury market, why BTC may be more complementary to long-term fixed income than investors realize, and how even modest portfolio reallocations could have significant implications.
thenodeahead.substack.com/p/…
1/6
In March, with BTC down >50%, I published an analysis arguing BTC was in an attractive accumulation zone.
The thesis was based on onchain data, historical cycles and valuation, not a prediction of the exact bottom.
Bitcoin's subsequent Q3 rally validated that analysis.
🧵
5/6
BTC rallied roughly 43% in Q3, its strongest third quarter since 2017.
The March analysis shows how combining onchain data, market structure, historical cycles & valuation can help identify opportunities when sentiment is weak and the balance of risk and reward is shifting.
6/6
The objective isn't to call every top and bottom. It's to recognize when the probabilities shift, define an attractive range and act with a multi-year horizon.
thenodeahead.substack.com/p/…
1/6
BTC was up 43% in Q3, its best since 2017.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields surged, oil topped $100, & CLARITY stalled in the Senate.
Under the conventional macro framework, this should have been negative for BTC but the rally makes sense when you look beneath the surface.
🧵
5/6
These forces reinforced one another.
Fiscal concerns strengthened BTC's thesis. Seller exhaustion made the market more sensitive to new demand. A more developed financial ecosystem gave that capital more ways to participate.
The rally wasn't as irrational as it looked.
6/6
In the latest issue of The Node Ahead, I examine why bitcoin’s Q3 rally was more logical than it looked, and what it reveals about the structural changes underway in crypto.
Full analysis 👇
thenodeahead.substack.com/p/…