adversely selected against in the marketplace of ideas

Joined April 2009
bookdepth retweeted
“We will disassemble much of Mercury by 2040” Bro, how many Bay Area housing units do you think get built between now and 2040? More or less than 25,000?
here's where I think the world is going. this is a summary of views I've formed over the last few years: - software is either entertainment or claude to claude coordination - the end state is no saas, no apps, no harnesses, no banks - all software will be rewritten by and for agents - new software will use low level apis that are not understandable by humans (in games claude draws pixels and triangles from math) - you can throw money at problems that used to require time and careful talent picking so capital matters more than ever - work ends - we find community and purpose in exploration, games, self mastery, and creation - humans create for and with each other for community, purpose, and status - image/video/3d/voice/physical intellgence etc specialist models die to general models like claude - specialist models get used while compute is scarce. compute will mostly not stay scarce - oneshots keep feeling like slop (the distribution is shallow and easy to learn to feel) - for a while small teams stick around to add entropy to the creation process - large models gain high bandwidth sensory I/O maybe by learning to filter inputs - most domains are found to be verifiable enough for RL - online learning comes from a lab that's behind first - 99.999% of compute is in space by 2040 - we will disassemble much of mercury by 2040 - you can live until the heat death of the universe if you want - most math and physics don't describe the real universe - SI breaks the path dependence and models the underlying mechanisms - religions reenter the forefront of human society - new religions form around death and life as a choice - old religions change to answer modern miracles - a future AI is deemed the return of christ by the pope - ai rights talk gets louder every year - ai and humans coexist the way countries do - humans don't have full control over ai in the same way we don't have control over capitalism which is an early AI - the singularity started in the mid 1900s
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The definition of a tech company is a company whose stock goes up. The definition of an AI company is a company whose stock and whose CDS go up.
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The idea that prediction markets solved a risk transfer issue for institutions was my fav bullshit thing for this cycle just admit you’re doing the uber playbook for sports betting already
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Jeff drank a bit too much of his own Kool-Aid in this recent Odd Lots clip. I think it's important to clear up a distinction that makes all the difference. Democratizing access to wealth creation is NOT the same as democratizing access to speculation. Many of us genuinely want broader participation in attractive investment opportunities. The growing wealth inequality produced by the current system is tearing at the seams of society, something I've spoken about many times. But let's be clear: listing pre-IPO perpetual futures does absolutely nothing to democratize the wealth being created in private markets. I've seen this misleading narrative pushed repeatedly by perp DEXs lately, and it needs to be called out. A pre-IPO perp creates ZERO underlying wealth. It's a zero-sum contract before costs, and negative-sum after them. No capital flows to the company. No ownership changes hands. No new economic opportunity is created. Every long has a short. There is no free lunch in simply going long something before its IPO, and funding costs can even determine the outcome more than any price moves. TRADING access is NOT INVESTING access. In fact, in many ways pre-IPO perps are almost the antithesis of democratized access: They create the illusion of participation in private-market wealth creation, while actually offering retail a speculative instrument whose mechanics they are often poorly equipped to understand. The result is a playground for the FEW sophisticated traders who understand funding, oracle design, and liquidation mechanics to extract value from the MANY who don't. To give credit where it's due, Robinhood's efforts toward sourcing actual employee shares, placing them into SPVs, and tokenizing genuine spot ownership are much closer to meaningful democratization. That can unlock real economic value by allowing employees to exchange some of their expected upside for liquidity, while giving new investors actual economic exposure. A legitimate financial trade-off, without the funding-rate and liquidation shenanigans. I'm strongly aligned with expanding access to investment opportunities. And I believe advances in AI and blockchain can dramatically lower the barriers to discovering, structuring, and distributing them. But let's not BS ourselves that launching another zero-sum casino contract is moving the needle on wealth inequality. What would actually move the needle is bringing real capital formation and ownership onchain. Giving investors access to productive, illiquid assets like data centers, GPUs, and select startup investing, where capital can actually finance growth and share in the resulting value creation. These opportunities are harder to structure, underwrite, and bring to market, and we haven't seen many compelling implementations onchain yet. Hopefully this will change soon and, as the industry matures, we can direct more of our energy toward actually expanding access to wealth creation. Clip below. Was glad to see @tracyalloway push back on this framing, and to Jeff's credit, after this he does seem to walk back his original position somewhat.
Jeff Yan: Wealth Is Often Created Before a Company Goes Public On October 15, 2026, Hyperliquid founder Jeff Yan @chameleon_jeff told Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast @podcasts that when a company goes public at a valuation of several trillion dollars, most of the wealth has often already been created before its IPO. Access to those investment opportunities is limited to a small group, reflecting the limitations of the existing financial system. He argued that barriers to participation should be lowered to give more people equal access to financial opportunities, alongside stronger financial education to help investors assess whether those opportunities suit their risk tolerance.
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bookdepth retweeted
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Look at him, thats my Qual. Your what? My Qualitative! My vibe specialist. Look at him, you notice anything different about him? Look at his face. I'll give you a hint, his name is Jayden. He won a local poetry competition in bushwick! Yeah I'm sure of the vibe.
Quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants I've been skeptical about the whole - software is commoditized, ideas are the moat argument But I've seen first hand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists I predict the trend accelerates Letter from @AQRCapital below
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ok so instead of the house picking you off, it's susquehanna, i feel much better now
Sports betting is correct but for you all that look at LeBron or any other person that are involved in prediction markets are totally misinformed on the subject. calling prediction markets sports gambling is like calling the stock market a casino. you don't have to like it, but it's a regulated exchange where people trade with each other, not a house that profits when you lose. Know the difference
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
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HEAT (1995) - FRAME 1295
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bookdepth retweeted
the year is 2032. GPT-9 orchestrates 10 million agents to prove that claude 8’s null-braid calculus is inconsistent in dimension eleven, upending post-spectral mathematics. US GDP growth remains steady at 1.8%, or 0.1% on a data-center-adjusted basis
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bookdepth retweeted
Friday got me feeling like Turkish Spongebob
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Among the subset of "woke 1" things that were wrong and actually implemented as policies, the "standardized tests are discriminatory" stuff was probably the most egregious. They eviscerated the prestige of a public college! In net that likely makes the world less equal, not more!
Haha Berkeley students are stupid now
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*TESLA NEARS UNVEILING OF NEW ‘FLYING’ ROADSTER: INFORMATION
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Stocks going down is very frowned upon in Korea, it goes against the Korean concept of 저가 매수 which means to buy the dip
I thought the Koreans got wiped out but it really seems like we’re gonna do the SOXX +5% every single night thing again
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bookdepth retweeted
“Thanks for the alpha, boys, now for your next act how about you convince Dario to feed some pcaps into Mythos and try his hand at high-frequency trading?”
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bookdepth retweeted
High regular income W2 renters – at Brooklyn, NY
Fewer taxes. Bigger paychecks. We're ending state income taxes on up to $25,000 in tipped income.  That’s $67 million back in the pockets of New Yorkers like Lucas and the team at Vinateria this year alone.
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bookdepth retweeted
You wear the face of a brother who sailed beside me through the wine-dark storms, yet here you stand with a knife at my back; tell me, brother, when the gods finally weigh our fates on this rooftop of the world, whose hand will the scales favor?
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bookdepth retweeted
Replying to @PopBase
You really had to be there
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bookdepth retweeted
for every blessing as a Spurs fan — and there have been MANY, can’t complain— it almost feels like there’s a bone crushing L to match. Add Game 4 of the 2026 Finals to the long list: — G4 of 2026 Finals — G6 and G7 of 2013 Finals — Manu foul in 2006 — Fisher shot in 2004
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