There’s a unique pitch in baseball right now, and Dylan Cease is leading the charge: The rising changeup. Typically thrown by high-slot pronators, the top 10 highest-IVB changeups come from pitchers averaging 96% spin efficiency on their four-seamers. The results have been mixed. It’s usually a third pitch and breaks the mold of a traditional changeup, so stuff models don’t always love it however, there is real upside. We see this with Tanner Bibee and Rico Garcia, who are generating whiff rates of 42.0% and 60.9%, respectively. The goal isn’t necessarily dominance with the pitch but a different look to make the rest of the arsenal play up. In Cease’s case, it gives lefties one more thing to think about. The graph shows no real relationship between IVB and run value, reinforcing that changeups come in many shapes. Their success depends on how they fit within a pitcher’s arsenal. That doesn’t mean pitchers should aim for a high-ride changeup, this profile is usually the result of an inability to kill vertical break, not something that’s intentionally created. I am simply highlighting how unique this pitch is.

5 Players I Think Will Have A Strong Finish To The MLB Season: 1. Cam Smith Cam Smith was a big-name prospect who was one of the headliners of the Kyle Tucker trade back in 2024. He currently has an 83 wRC+ and a .655 OPS on a middling Astros team. The 23-year-old was the 14th overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and raked everywhere he played before reaching the majors. I expect that to change soon. He has 98th percentile bat speed, which ranks fifth-best in the league. Bat speed isn't everything, but it's definitely something. Compared to last season, he's improved his K rate, xSLG, xwOBA, hard-hit rate and several other underlying numbers, and his strikeout rate has come down every single month this year. His biggest issues are a low 13.9% pull-air rate and a BABIP that has dropped from .320 to .244. It is not a crazy take to believe Cam Smith will eventually be good. It's just a matter of when. This is his profile compared to Jordan Walker, who is also a bat-speed monster in the middle of a breakout year. Cam Smith can do the same. If it does not happen this year, maybe it happens next year.

5 Weird Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez BABIP Cristopher Sanchez broke out last year as one of the game’s top 5 starting pitchers as he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. This year, he has a similar FIP at 2.61 and ERA at 2.94 in 33.2 IP. He is having success; however, he is running the highest BABIP in the league and of his career at .423. He is managing to outpitch his bad luck, showing how elite of a pitcher he is. This is because of his elite 21.6 K-BB% (better than last year). He is elite.