Albert | Call the Map (@callthemap) header
Albert | Call the Map (@callthemap) profile picture

I built Call the Map: an independent forecast of every 2026 House, Senate and governor race. Method published in full. Free, no ads.

Joined June 2026
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Nevada's polls close at 10 PM ET, and in 2024 the state had counted none of its vote by 11 PM. Clark County, 69% of the state, wasn't past 90% in the archived feed until the evening of Nov. 6. If your Tuesday plan includes a Nevada governor result before bed, I'd get a second plan. Those are 2024 numbers, 2026 may count differently.
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Washoe, the second biggest county, was at 64% by 1 AM. Every county's clock, and why Nevada's count takes days, is on the page: callthemap.com/when-will-we-…
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Nevada's polls close at 10 PM ET, and in 2024 the state had counted none of its vote by 11 PM. Clark County, 69% of the state, wasn't past 90% in the archived feed until the evening of Nov. 6. If your Tuesday plan includes a Nevada governor result before bed, I'd get a second plan. Those are 2024 numbers, 2026 may count differently.
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Colorado is the state to bring snacks for. In 2024 it had 71% of its final count in by 11 PM ET, then only 74% by 1 AM, and the first archived copy past 95% is from midnight ET on Nov. 11. Those are 2024 numbers, and 2026 may count differently.
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alaska is the state not to wait up for. in 2024 none of its vote was counted by 1 AM ET, 75% was by the evening of Nov 6 and 99% by Nov 22, with overseas ballots counted 15 days after the election. 2026 can run on a different clock, but I wouldn't plan on knowing it Tuesday night
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Waiting up for Pennsylvania on Tuesday? In 2024 about 15% of the vote was counted by 9 PM ET, 67% by 11 PM and 91% by 1 AM, and Bucks and Chester were still under 90% at 2:37 AM, the last overnight copy in the archive. A midterm can run on a different clock.
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The most likely Senate result in my forecast is 51 Democratic-aligned seats, and it shows up on only 10.7% of simulated nights. 80% of them land somewhere between 47 and 56. What's your number?
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Trailing by 2 points with half the vote counted means the other half has to go your way by 2. Trailing by 2 with 90% counted, the last tenth has to go your way by 18. That's why "who's up right now" matters less on Tuesday night than "which votes are still out". The math is on the last page of our printable county guide.
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The guide is free and prints on 8 pages, with county benchmarks in poll-close order and a page on how to read the night: callthemap.com/election-nigh…
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Six House races are inside 0.3 points on my board, and VA-01 is the closest at Taylor +0.1, literally 50 in 100. The other five are TX-35, FL-25, NY-17, MO-02 and IA-02. Which one do you think breaks first Tuesday night?
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Texas Senate polls from the last ten days: Quantus has Paxton up 1, CNN/SSRS has Talarico up 6, YouGov Blue has him up 8. My average of the 70 it counts is D+2.5. The forecast lands lower, D+1.1, partly because it shifts Senate polls 1.6 points toward Republicans after past polling misses. Which of the three do you trust?
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every Texas Senate poll and how much each one counts: callthemap.com/senate/texas?…
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my Senate odds went 55, 56, 57, 60 over the last four updates, Tuesday to today. expected seats barely moved, 51.0 to 51.3. big jump for a small change, because 51 is both the middle night in my sims and the number you need
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