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Joined November 2013
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sss retweeted
The VIX has hit 28.5 -- our bear market warning level.
But this is also an area where many intermediate-term corrections have historically found a bottom. The key now is how the market responds.
If stocks canât rally convincingly from here and produce a legitimate follow-through day, expect more volatility. Even in the event of a follow-through action, before we could justify aggressive exposure, we would need to see a lack of distribution post follow-through AND stocks setting up in constructive bases offering buyable pivot points.
Bottom line: this level of volatility gets my attention --and my respect.
minervini.com
sss retweeted
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sss retweeted
SOXL's 13week return crossed below -67% today.
This is an exceptionally rare event, occurring only five times in the available history. While the sample size is small, the forward return profile has been remarkably consistent. Every prior occurrence produced a positive return from week 1 through week 10. Whether this instance follows the same path remains to be seen.
Historically, average returns accelerated from 28.6% after one week to 54.0% after three weeks, 81.0% after four weeks, and 117.5% after ten weeks. The median outcome was similarly impressive.
These signals have historically occurred during periods of extreme pessimism, forced liquidations, and trend exhaustion.
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sss retweeted
BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $100/barrel after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that President Trump prefers not to use military force and would like to resolve the Iran War âdiplomatically.â
sss retweeted
Eli Lilly's pipeline is out of control:
Q3 just dropped:
- retatrutide: ~28% body weight lost at 80 weeks, up to 30% at 2 years in the extension (phase 3, not approved yet)
- retatrutide vs ozempic's top dose in type 2 diabetes: more than 2x the weight loss
- foundayo, the weight loss pill: $184m in its launch quarter
- elora + tirzepatide beat tirzepatide's top dose in phase 2. phase 3 starts this quarter
- a once-weekly insulin got fda approved
- mounjaro is now approved to cut heart risk
- olumiant approved for kids 12+ with severe alopecia areata
- $24.4b revenue in one quarter, up 39%
what's coming:
- retatrutide trials in heart disease, knee osteoarthritis and sleep apnea
- olomorasib, a KRAS lung cancer drug, with durable first-line data
- a next-gen ADC for ovarian cancer, first human data just shown
- in vivo car-t, from the kelonia acquisition
- one-time gene editing for high cholesterol, from the verve acquisition
the number that matters: volume up 53%, price down 15%
my take is that obesity is now the cash machine, and lilly is spending it on everything else: gene editing, cell therapy, cancer.
the weight loss boom is paying for the next wave of drugs
bio/acc
sss retweeted
President Trump wants AI data center developers to pay local communities a âdividendâ and bring their own power as local opposition has reportedly stalled over $170B in projects.
That could actually favor $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $SPCX and $META because paying residents and building on-site power may be far cheaper than delaying billions in AI infrastructure for another year.
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sss retweeted
BREAKING: ðºðžð®ð· The US and Iran have reportedly agreed to a deal to end the war, per Al-Araby Al-Jadeed.
The deal was mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, and reportedly includes confidential IAEA inspections and a partial return of Iran's frozen funds.
sss retweeted
We are officially in the Bear trap phase of this AI supercycle boomâŠ
This is the true first extreme fear sign weâve seen during this rally.
Comparable to the dot-com bubble, 2026 is trading like 1999 with 2000 as the peak which means we squeeze into Q2 2027.
If you missed out on the AI rally this may be your last chance to join before itâs forever gone.
Targets for S&P 500 in 2027 is $10,000.
Donât miss outâŠ
sss retweeted
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Buy SpaceX ahead of earnings, says Evercore ISI cnbc.com/2026/10/16/spacex-eâŠ
sss retweeted
if you're wondering why the 10-year is down today even though CPI had a horrible print...which should be causing yields to go up because that means we have a higher chance of a rate hike due to more inflation...
i *think* it's because the bond market wants to see the stock market go down.
and not just stocks, but AI/semi/capex stocks in particular.
the theory i've had over the past couple of weeks is that as we see more issuance of corporate debt in order to fuel capex...that is obviously competing with the long end of the curve for US treasuries
i mean, one can even argue that bond yields we're going to go up regardless of the oil issues because those yields simply couldn't stay at 4% if meta/google/amzn/msft were offering 6-7% on their corporate debt
so the obvious answer now could be for there to be LESS competition with the US 10-year...but the only way for that to happen is for their to be lower-yielding debt from the hyperscalers that are issuing bonds to fuel their capex spend
well...the only way that happens is if the capex stops, slows down, or the cost to build these datacenters drop so that the borrowing costs drop
which is why we have seen yields RISE every day over the past few weeks when semis go up and we are seeing them go down when semis go down...it's like the credit market is saying "we will only buy bonds if you guys stop buying semis"
this doesn't mean that stocks writ-large have to go down, but it does mean that the credit markets are asking for something to break in the equity markets and its like they want semis to be the main culprit. if semis keep going to the moon, cool, but then so will yields and then maybe a 6% 10-year is what breaks everything?
not sure if this theory is right but the objectively true part is the competition between US corp debt and treasuries, if all that corp debt is going to buy semis then when semis go down, it makes sense for treasuries to go up
the easiest way to get SOME relief here is for Trump to end the war so gas/energy comes down and puts relief on inflation...but today's CPI showed the opposite and yields STILL went down because semis got hit
it's a very, very weird time to understand how the bond market is navigating the AI trade
sss retweeted
$FROG
Keep a close watch on this one this week as well.
Similar look to Datadog and on the verge of a larger breakout.
Personally, Iâm looking to trade this one two ways. Iâm open to shorter dated calls as well as shares.
From my experience, this one tends to move a bit slower, so shares may not be a bad idea in case the options donât move as well.
On watch!
sss retweeted
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