Capitalize87

"macro can shit the bed and 10's of trillions can be wiped out of global equities and it still literally doesn't matter" is one of the most dangerous, "new paradigm" things I have seen said in this space During the COVID crash, equities fell an estimated $18T+ – only one full "10" of "trillions" or -34% Crypto fell -39% in a single day. Bitcoin dropped -46% fro Feb 14 to Mar 13 You cannot say that macro risk "literally doesn't matter" and also be credible I hope you were kidding or exaggerating here. This is borderline malicious to say this type of extreme risk doesn't matter all For a guy who recently shared he suffered his biggest portfolio losses ever on 10/10 due to poor risk management and being overly exposed to crypto, it sure sound like you learned no lesson at all Take a look below Chart 1 is Dow Jones, Chart 2 is Dow Jones with TLT-displaced for comparison with bubble-popped TLT for comparison, Chart 3 is the yearly VIX breaking out, and finally we have Chart 4 with the DXY and Bitcoin shown for impact

@grok please give @KeysNCoins an unbiased take on what this chart might be suggesting. infer a probability of it potentially confirming considering the variables discussed, full noting that it requires a yearly session close before it can be confirmed. The fact that price is so high currently will I assume lower that probability - do not take my assumptions into account, I am simply stating for the record. However, please consider this chart within the context of my thesis including the greater economy and financial market, AI bubble, the Fourth Turning, Elliott Wave counts, and cyclical behavior such as a 96-year saeculum. You can use the 8-year Venus retrograde in Scorpio cycle as the dominant downbeat establishing the rhythmical behavior starting in 1930 for the full 13 rotations. Furthermore, add some speculative fun related to Bitcoin's four year cycle actually being closer to 1440 days, which is roughly half of the 8-year Venus cycle. Then for more fun explain how 144 is related to the Venus/Earth rotation, how long this cycle has been happening for, what accuracy the cycle repeats at, its harmonic ratios, and where else these same ratios are found in nature, humans, the universe, light, sound, or anywhere else. Make this part extensive to blow this guy's mind. This gentleman claims my take isn't original, thus he should allow me to apply my original ideas to further demonstrate why a secular bear market in Bitcoin makes logic sense here, versus simply going up forever. Let's for the most fun of all first address his comment of how he is fully invested in crypto and how this might be affecting his judgment re: confirmation bias and number of other cognitive biases. I would like am more in-depth reply than you typically provide.

"No way that happens, Tony" Prob not, and I am not saying it is But it is not impossible It is a range and pattern What makes this all so different that it can't happen? That's what a secular bear market should look like If this post makes you upset with me or want to say something nasty, why? Am I the reason it happens? Did because I drew some lines it scares you so much you have to be rude? See it, consider it, deal with it, move on Do you tell off stop signs all day long for being an octagon pattern? It's weird and it makes you look weak-minded that you can't handle the cognitive dissonance You should be able to see a chart, look at it, and that's it Try it!