Börjesson

I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions. The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’ bargaining power continues to rise. Strikes abound, with more likely to come as successful walkouts achieve substantial wage gains. Energy prices are rising rapidly. Not refilling the SPR was a misguided and dangerous mistake. Our strategic assets should never be used to achieve short-term political objectives. Now we must refill the SPR while OPEC and Russia cut production. The green energy transition is and will remain incalculably expensive. And higher gas prices will raise inflationary expectations. Just ask your average American. They see the prices at the pump and in the grocery store and don’t believe inflation is moderating. Our national debt is $33 trillion and rising rapidly. There is no sign of fiscal discipline by either party or by the presumptive presidential nominees. And each debt ceiling is an opportunity for our divided government and its most extreme actors to get media attention, and for our nation to threaten default. This is not a good way to recruit the many new buyers we need for our bonds. The government is selling hundreds of billions of bills, notes and bonds weekly. China and other foreign nations, historically major buyers of our debt, are now selling. And the QT unwind experiment has barely begun. Imagine trying to do a massive IPO where the underwriter, insiders and short sellers are all selling at once, competing to hit every bid on the way down while the analysts downgrade their ratings to ‘Sell.’ Our economy is outperforming expectations. Major infrastructure spending is beginning to contribute to economic growth and the supply of additional debt. Recession predictions have been pushed out beyond 2024. The long-term inflation rate is not going back to 2% no matter how many times Chairman Powell reiterates it as his target. It was arbitrarily set at 2% after the financial crisis in a world very different from the one we live in now. I bumped into the CIO of one of the world’s largest fixed income asset managers the other night and asked him how it was going. He looked like he had had a tough day. He greeted me by saying: ‘There are just too many bonds’ — a veritable tsunami of new issuance each week. I asked him what he was going to do about it. He said: ‘The only thing you can do is step away.’ I have been surprised at how low long-term rates are. I think the best explanation is that bond investors thought of 4% as a high rate of interest because rates hadn’t breached 4% for nearly 15 years. When investors saw the ‘opportunity’ to lock in 4% for 30 years, they grabbed it as a ‘once-in-their-career opportunity,’ but today’s world is very different from the one they have experienced up until now. The long-term inflation rate plus the real rate of interest plus term premium suggests that 5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys. And query whether 0.5% is a sufficient real long term rate in an increasingly risky world. And the technicals could cause yields to go even higher, particularly in the short term. We saw the beginnings of that today. It wasn’t that long ago that a previous generation thought five percent was a low rate of interest for a long-term, fixed-rate obligation. But I could be wrong. AI might save us.

Jamie Dimon is one of the world's most respected business leaders. Politically he is a centrist. He is pro-business and pro-free enterprise, but also supportive of well-designed social programs and rational tax policies that can help the less fortunate. He is extremely smart, thoughtful, and pragmatic, and he knows how to bring opposing parties together. He is highly respected by the Right, the Left, and the Center. Jamie is beloved by his 240,000+ employees, highly respected by our military as well as by the global political and business leaders that matter. He has superbly managed @jpmorgan through every crisis, and has built the world's best, large, global financial institution working for clients from startups and mom and pops, to global institutions and countries. Our country is at risk with $32T of debt with no end to massive deficits in sight, heading into a recession at a time of great political uncertainty. We need an exemplary business, financial, and global leader to manage through what is likely to be a critically important decade for our country in determining our destiny. Jamie Dimon is that leader. Jamie is of exemplary and unimpeachable character. He is a no bullshit, straight-talking, charismatic leader with an enormous grasp of the world's issues and how to address them. He is a great communicator that makes everyone who hears his words feel respected and inspired. He has enormous energy, vigor, and drive. He is a wonderful father, friend, husband, and son. In sum, he is the kind of person our country deserves as our next leader. And clearly he is thinking about running: finance.yahoo.com/news/dimon… I can't imagine a better time for him to do so. @POTUS is extremely weak and in cognitive decline. 70% of Democrats don't want him to run. Biden's weakness sets up a large opening for a qualified outsider to run as a Democrat. Jamie can beat Biden in the primary and @realDonaldTrump in the general election, but he needs to start now and build name recognition among the broad electorate. He will easily raise billions of dollars from Democrats and Republicans to fund his campaign, and he knows how to build support. Each year, Jamie gets on a bus and travels around the country meeting with tellers, branch managers, and other employees to spread the culture and inspire the JPM team; great preparation for a presidential run. He will also be incredible on the debate stage. And there is nothing more for him to achieve at JPM. He has already been crowned the world's best banker. JPM stock will go up even more when he becomes POTUS as he can do more for the bank and our economy as President than he can as Chairman and CEO of JPM. The bank will be in great shape since he has built a deep succession bench that is more than ready to step up. There is only one better job for Jamie than CEO of JPM and that's POTUS. Jamie just needs a push from people he respects and from the broader electorate. If you agree that he should be our next POTUS, give him a call, send him an email or go see him, and like and retweet this tweet. This will be one of the most important elections in our country's history. Jamie is more likely to run if we build a groundswell of support for him. Let's do our civic duty and make it happen. Our challenges as a nation are largely due to failures of leadership. America needs and deserves great leadership and we need it now.