Markets, money and modern life illustrated in charts you won’t see anywhere else📊 Can you guess today’s mystery chart👇 https://xitter.gq/t.co/73auWr4Cqn
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A year ago this month, Oklo closed at $174. Today it closed at $27.
Nuclear and quantum were 2025's favorite stories. In 2026, with the S&P 500 up 13%, they're two of the worst places to have been.
NUCLEAR: -47% YTD
(Oklo, NuScale, Nano Nuclear, Centrus, Cameco)
→ The basket was +41% on Jan 28. It's lost more than 60% since.
→ NuScale is 89% off its high and still has no binding power deal.
→ $OKLO opened a fresh $1B at-the-market share program in September. Analysts see ~$6.5B of burn through 2030.
QUANTUM: -40% YTD
(IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, Quantum Computing Inc)
→ Peaked at +29% on Jun 2. Down 53% since.
→ Within three days in October, IonQ agreed to an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3B, then priced a $2B stock sale.
→ D-Wave still trades near 67x forward sales and now faces a class action.
Same knife for both: the 10-year yield hit 5.26% on Oct 14. Far-off profits are worth less when bonds pay 5%.
The case for a rebound
Nuclear
Big Tech keeps signing. On Oct 6, Google signed a 20-year deal for 890 MW of new nuclear capacity from Constellation.
Uranium's long-term contract price hit $96.50/lb in September, topping the 2007 peak.
Five test reactors went critical under DOE's pilot this year, Oklo's included. Meta signed on to prepay for power from Oklo's 1.2 GW Ohio campus.
Quantum
$IONQ grew Q2 sales 287% to $80.1M and raised its 2026 guide to $280-290M.
DARPA moved IonQ into the final stage of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative on Oct 7.
Washington is buying in: up to $100M CHIPS awards each for D-Wave and Rigetti (for government equity stakes), plus two quantum executive orders in June.
The honest risk
Nuclear: almost no revenue until reactors run. Oklo's first Ohio power is targeted for 2030 at the earliest.
Quantum: the cash comes from new shares. IonQ's two deals could lift its share count by close to half.
Next test: IonQ and NuScale both report Nov 5.
If you could only own one from here, is it the reactors or the qubits?
Boo-yah! #Halloween is headed for a record $13.5B. Costumes $4.4B, decor $4.3B, candy $4.1B. 4.6M kids are going as Spider-Man, and pets get $920M in costumes, pumpkin on top. That's 4x the 2005 haul. $HSY
They don't need SpaceX to fail. They need it to grow slower than Google.
Even at Google speed, 20% a year, $SPCX still hits $30T. Just five years late. 🐢
So which is it: absurd, or the floor? 👇
$30 TRILLION SpaceX? 🚀 Wall Street is laughing.
Wall Street laughed last time too. 😏
Ron Baron called it: $20T, $30T, $50T.
Then Elon stepped to the line: over $100T in under 10 years. "Unless there's a major world war." Casual.
Absurd? Let's go to the tape. 📼
From $1.95T today, $30T in 10 years takes 31% a year.
Not a miracle. Just a good decade.
$NVDA: 63% a year 🔥
$TSLA: 49%
SpaceX itself: 56% since 2015
The "impossible" number is running SLOWER than all three.
That's not a moonshot. That's the slow lane. 🐢
Rewind to 2016. Fortune: a $1T Apple is "far from reach."
Apple today: $5T.
Far from reach? It reached. Then it reached four more times. 🍎
Jim Chanos on Tesla: "We think the equity is worthless."
Worthless is now worth $1.6T. 💀
"But nobody grows like that from $2T!"
Says who? The trillion-dollar club didn't exist until 2018.
Nvidia walked in at $1T in 2023. It's 5x since. In three years.
The bear case is real ⚠️ SpaceX is burning cash on rockets and AI chips, and S&P sees no positive cash flow until 2029.
Fine. Slow it down to Google speed, 20% a year.
It STILL gets to $30T. Just in 15 years instead of 10.
The doubters don't need SpaceX to fail.
They need it to grow slower than Google. 🎤
So who's got this one wrong:
the people calling $30T absurd, or the people calling it the floor? 👇
$SPCX
$30 TRILLION SpaceX? 🚀 Wall Street is laughing.
Wall Street laughed last time too. 😏
Ron Baron called it: $20T, $30T, $50T.
Then Elon stepped to the line: over $100T in under 10 years. "Unless there's a major world war." Casual.
Absurd? Let's go to the tape. 📼
From $1.95T today, $30T in 10 years takes 31% a year.
Not a miracle. Just a good decade.
$NVDA: 63% a year 🔥
$TSLA: 49%
SpaceX itself: 56% since 2015
The "impossible" number is running SLOWER than all three.
That's not a moonshot. That's the slow lane. 🐢
Rewind to 2016. Fortune: a $1T Apple is "far from reach."
Apple today: $5T.
Far from reach? It reached. Then it reached four more times. 🍎
Jim Chanos on Tesla: "We think the equity is worthless."
Worthless is now worth $1.6T. 💀
"But nobody grows like that from $2T!"
Says who? The trillion-dollar club didn't exist until 2018.
Nvidia walked in at $1T in 2023. It's 5x since. In three years.
The bear case is real ⚠️ SpaceX is burning cash on rockets and AI chips, and S&P sees no positive cash flow until 2029.
Fine. Slow it down to Google speed, 20% a year.
It STILL gets to $30T. Just in 15 years instead of 10.
The doubters don't need SpaceX to fail.
They need it to grow slower than Google. 🎤
So who's got this one wrong:
the people calling $30T absurd, or the people calling it the floor? 👇
$SPCX
AWS grew 39%, its fastest in about five years, and the stock still fell. The number that did it: $77.3B of capex in a single quarter, up from $44.2B in Q1. Trailing free cash flow is now -$42.4B. $AMZN
The market needs to hear from @GavinSBaker at Atreides and Brad Gerstner @altcap (2 of the largest shareholders) to stop the bleeding on $CBRS regarding the short report from Culper
Before you trade Culper's $CBRS short, know the shop. Tecnoglass, Gorilla and LifeMD all sued it, and two AppLovin-related defamation suits are still pending. It says it may trade after publishing. Its misses: AAOI +198%, IREN +113%, AXSM +98%.
Monday it was ₩60.5T in Q2. Q3 just landed:
$SKHY quarterly operating profit
Q3 last year: ₩11.4T
Q3 now: ₩83.3T
An 80% margin on memory chips, plus ~₩100T (~$75B) going back to shareholders this year.
KOSPI jumped 6.6% to 6,012 and still sits about a third below its June record.
$GOOGL closed at $320.58 into tonight's earnings, 21.5% off its May high and just above $314.90, the low after July earnings. The 50-day sits only $0.66 over the 200-day. At a flat price they cross Thursday.
Does $315 hold, or does the death cross print?
Robinhood's CFO says he doesn't "over-index on any one month." October still headlined the outlook: $13B+ in deposits, $6B of it one Dell family gift. Q3 deposits slid to $15.7B from $21.7B and $HOOD fell 7.4% after hours. Is October the signal or the asterisk?
