Crypto is macro (TA and more), Free opinions, NFA.
Joined April 2025
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The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
2nd reminder 👇😆
(= +/- 72.5k $BTC)
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
AI Bubble Burst? Bitcoin to Zero? Hedge Funds Wrecked? Sounds Like a Bottom is Near
In this week's video: youtu.be/CjquP0fupG4
On many measures this is one of the largest hedge fund equity deleveraging events in the last 30 years without economic deleveraging.
For equities parallels to the 2007 Quant Quake are striking. AI positions built over 18 months are being unwound in 75 days.
This is concentration rather than factors.
But here's what matters:
Corporate profits are still growing ~20% YoY.
AI compute demand continues to exceed supply.
The S&P 500 has barely moved despite the liquidation.
Contagion has spread into credit, multistrats, and European bonds.
This is hedge fund deleveraging, NOT economic deleveraging.
And I believe based on positioning we're in the final innings.
I also cover why AI is accelerating breakthroughs in healthcare, why cybersecurity could drive tokenization, and why the convergence of AI and crypto is just beginning.
The world is changing faster than traditional leverage and risk management can handle.
The real bubble may have been in the assumption that investors still had time.
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
I like what i see.
$BTC
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
#Stablecoins chart does not predict the future
But it confirms the positive & organic correlation with $BTC which drives sentiment on the way down (back to stable or out of the ecosystem entirely), while stablecoin minting drives PA on the way up
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
E190: @RaoulGMI: The Crypto and AI Supercycle and It Doesn’t Stop till 2030
0:00 - Intro
03:31 - The BANANA ZONE that never happened
04:07 - How To Allocate Better In Crypto
04:52 - How Compounding Actually Works
09:25 - Early vs Wrong: How To Tell
12:54 - The Belief Raoul Totally Reversed
15:46 - What Liquidity Charts Say About Crypto
19:01 - Sponsor: @variational_io , @Bitwise
20:08 - The Biggest Thing Markets Are Mispricing Today
22:12 - The Belief Raoul Wishes Was Wrong
29:46 - How Long Does This Bull Run Last?
34:23 - The Next Obvious Crypto Narrative
36:50 - Is Bitcoin Still Primarily Money?
38:08 - Infrastructure vs Narrative: What Separates Them
39:16 - What Crypto Networks are at a Tipping Point?
40:19 - Are We Underestimating AI's Speed?
44:14 - If AI Makes Everything Abundant, What's Scarce?
50:53 - Sponsor: @KASTxyz
51:41 - Will Crypto Ever Be Exciting Again?
59:49 - Is Success Being Smart Or Pain Tolerance?
1:03:27 - KR1: A Raoul Crypto Bet That didn't work
1:06:36 - Has Raoul Actually Made Money On $SUI so far?
1:09:22 - Thoughts on being Overweight SUI While HYPE And $ZEC Run
1:11:02 - When will The SUI Thesis Pay Off?
1:13:20 - What Brought Raoul Back To $ETH
1:16:40 - The $SOL Comeback Thesis
1:17:37 - Getting Mocked Online Over ZEC and Zcash
1:19:59 - The Zcash Thesis
1:20:24 - Is Zcash A Trade Or A ZODL?
1:21:44 - How Big Can ZEC Get?
1:22:53 - Sponsor: @JupiterExchange , @ethena
1:23:35 - Why Real Vision's Analyst @Jamie1Coutts is bullish on $NEAR
1:25:16 - What Is Money For?
1:26:45 - Optimizing For More Than Wealth
1:29:35 - The Most Asked Question To His Palvatar
1:33:31 - The Secret to Raoul's Great Looks
1:35:03 - Looksmaxxing: How Deep Is Raoul In?
1:36:08 - Paying his Ex Wife back with Smoking Chicken Fish
1:37:46 - Was Telling Everyone About SUI a Wise Idea?
1:39:22 - Facing The Millions of People Who Followed him on The SUI Trade
1:42:53 - Was the 70% SUI Position Sizing Wrong?
1:44:13 - Does Raoul Still Believe In Hold And Do Nothing?
1:44:48 - The One Major Shift Left To Witness
1:48:46 - How Good Is AI Today?
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
In the drawdown from last year’s highs, SUI fell about 80%, SOL about 70%, ETH about 60%. Brutal.
But the charts missed what was underneath. On all three, economic density didn’t move. Users left, as they always do in a bear market, but the capital each remaining user had deployed stayed exactly where it was... the tourists and the bots went, and the people who stayed kept doing what they’d been doing.
I spent a lot of time measuring this: stablecoin float, DeFi TVL and applications shipped per daily user, across every major L1. Why? Because I think it’s the truest measure of longevity there is.
Every other L1 I measured lost density along with price. Adoption hadn’t taken hold yet. Doesn’t mean it won’t, but it hasn’t...
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
$BTC
In an Uptrend this PA typically punishes late High Leverage Longs creating the pullbacks = selling pressure
Then the late High Lev Shorts are getting squeezed allowing for sudden and violent markups = buying pressure
Pain is still North
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
HTF | Market Snapshot
Last watch was BTC holding 82.5K on the daily close. It didn’t, closing near 81.7K.
Medium and long-term trends are still long, with BTC’s long-term reading fully bullish.
Regime is still trending, but it weakened today and flow has turned sell-side.
Two of my three band reads are still long. Volatility is the one that’s turned defensive.
This is a test of the trend, not a break yet. The internals just aren’t backing it right now.
Watching: a BTC daily close back above 82.5K by Sunday. Without it, the mid-70s come into play.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Crypto #Macro
HTF | Market Snapshot
Last watch: open interest kept building, but price didn't go sideways. It broke lower and flow got worse.
Medium and long-term trend: still long on BTC and the total market.
The regime is trending and unchanged on the day. It hasn't registered the drop yet.
One of three trend bands turned defensive at the 8 Oct close. Volume momentum slipped below its signal too.
Trend up, internals weakening.
Watching: whether BTC holds the low of its two-week range near $82.5K on a daily close.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Crypto #Macro
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
The only thing you have to do:
Buy 6 months ago
Wait til 2027
And don't worry about price in between
it can rain in summer and you can have a splendid winter day, yet both events will not change the weather pattern of the season
The rest is noise
!
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
HTF | Market Snapshot
Last watch: the regime stalled. Flat at the 6 Oct close after one day of rising.
Medium and long-term trend: long across the board, on BTC and the total market.
One internal now disagrees. Daily derivatives flow turned sell-side: price, open interest and CVD all fell with a negative Coinbase premium. That was Monday's leverage flush.
ETH's daily volume flow turned back to long at the same close, after about a week out.
Trend up, with caution on flow.
Watching: whether flow recovers this week, or a second internal joins it.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Crypto #Macro
HTF | Market Snapshot
Last watch: still open, early lean up. The regime rose at the 5 Oct close after cooling through last week.
Medium and long-term trend: long across the board, on BTC and the total market.
The regime is trending and firmer on the day. Macro liquidity is still below average.
ETH volatility is still in the bottom 10% of its range, even after the breakout.
Trend up, but price is now high in its trend bands.
Watching: whether the regime keeps rising through midweek or stalls.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Crypto #Macro
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
You will never see me comparing current PA with the past
It's like saying it's gonna rain on may 15 bc it rained last year on that day
Those comparing 2026 with 2022 are out of their mind
Worse event the world has ever known vs Expansion of biggest trade in human history : AI
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
$BTC on a thin thread rn
Funny part is that none of the next probable move allows to determine exactly where we are:
If↘️:
Could be already starting wave 2 at higher degree
Could also play out 4/1
If↗️:
Could be ending 5/1
Could be starting 5/1
⏳
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
It’s mind-blowing how the timeline remains ignorant of the new economy unfolding before us
Posts abt oil, Fed rates, bond yields are increasingly irrelevant
The indicators to measure the agentic economy aren't invented yet, but the asset to invest in it is
Focus
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
Global M2 money supply Just hit an all-time high of $125 Trillion.
US and China combined M2 money supply surged by $7.9 trillion YoY in August, reaching a record $76.4 trillion. That figure has now more than doubled over the past 10 years.
China’s M2 has climbed to $53.1 trillion, while US M2 has reached $23.3 trillion both at ATHs. US and China M2 has now grown by more than $7T YoY for 8 straight months.
For comparison, before the 2020 pandemic, US and China’s combined M2 increased by around $3 trillion per year on average less than half of the current pace.
The last time liquidity expanded this aggressively, we saw a massive #crypto bull run. Bitcoin rose over 15x, and #Ethereum over 50x, and some #Altcoins delivered 100x to 1,000x and even more.
We’re already seeing the impact in US stocks, but Bitcoin and crypto haven’t moved nearly as much.
Historically, #Bitcoin has followed global liquidity trends, so we could see Bitcoin catch up this time as well.
What do you think? What’s your point of view?
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
China added more solar last year than the entire worlds standing stock of solar.
This is Wright's Law doing what it always does... every time cumulative production doubles, the cost falls by a fixed percentage. Solar has sat on that curve for decades. China just poured scale into it.
So the cost of creating energy is collapsing. Meanwhile compute costs are collapsing too. The per token cost of intelligence is on its own Wright's Law curve.
The input, energy, and the output, intelligence, are both falling in cost at once... a double exponential. Cheaper energy makes cheaper compute. Cheaper compute makes more intelligence, which makes energy cheaper again. That flywheel is The Exponential Age... technologies feeding each other rather than advancing alone.
It is scary how fast it is already. We aint seen nothing yet.
The Individual Crypto Investor🤘 retweeted
$BTC ending september in Green
(we've switched to Bull mode ppl, focus)
