Founded and built @loopinternet; acquired by Greenlight in 2025 and T-Mobile in 2026. Building more internet @ Layer1
Philly & Middle of Nowhere VA
Joined October 2008
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Chris Hacken retweeted
With AI stocks down 20% to 50%, I keep getting asked whether the AI trade is dead. I was in the market during the dot-com boom in my early twenties, so let me put the two side by side.
Duration first. The dot-com boom ran 5.3 years from Netscape in 1994 to the peak in 2000. The AI boom, counted from the ChatGPT moment in late 2022, is 3.9 years old. If it merely matches the dot-com in length, there are 1.4 more years to go.
Then magnitude. The Nasdaq 100 rose about 1,000% during the dot-com boom. In the AI boom so far it is up 137%, which is roughly 13% of the way there.
Now the poster boys. Cisco was the most important stock of the dot-com era, and at the 3.9-year mark it was up around 700%. It went on to peak at 4,200% on a forward P/E of 131 times. Nvidia at the same point is up about 1,000%, and its forward P/E is 17 times. Cisco was priced for perfection. Nvidia is priced like a mature industrial.
I am not forecasting that Nvidia goes 4x from here. I am saying that on both duration and valuation, this boom is nowhere near where the last one ended. That is why I treat these pullbacks as rotations within a bull market rather than the end of one.
Learn to invest and trade at piranhaprofits.com
Chris Hacken retweeted
Warren Buffett would pick $IREN. Its scarce power assets (key for AI data centers) provide a more tangible edge than pure GPU rentals, and the recent sharp drop creates a clearer margin of safety versus peers trading on richer multiples. He still dislikes the crypto roots and prefers proven cash flows, so none fully fit—but among these it best matches his undervalued-infrastructure bias.
Chris Hacken retweeted
Two prices for $IREN , and they're nowhere near each other.
In May, $NVDA signed for the right to buy in at 70 a share.
Up to 30 million shares over five years.
Friday's close was $24.91.
That's 64% below the price they signed for.
Either that price was a fantasy, or this selloff went too far.
November 5 will tell us. I hold it, so I'll be watching.
Chris Hacken retweeted
IREN’s @danroberts0101 speaks to @ArjunKharpal about AI financing and demand on CNBC.
Watch the full interview.
Chris Hacken retweeted
“Higher rates will kill $IREN"💀
I have heard that a lot lately. So I ran the numbers. Per MW.
Last quarter, IREN guided for $25–30bn of capex in FY27. Thats a lot of debt, and I get why it scares people.
Every time I have said the fundamentals have gotten better this year, I have gotten a lot of hate. Thats fair, and I understand it. Debt can be scary.
So in this post I will try to show why I say what I say. I built a model of the cost per MW and how higher rates actually change IREN’s profitability.
Step 1: $IREN’s own math
Recent 3-year contracts: >$20m revenue per MW (IT) per year.
Payback on the GPUs: ~2 years (revenue minus direct costs).
Work that backwards and you land at ~$35m of GPU capex per MW.
Step 2: put the debt on top
90% of GPU capex financed at 9% (Blue Owl / PIMCO)
Paid down over the 3-year contract
Data center debt on top of that
That’s ~$31m of GPU debt per MW. Sounds like a lot, right?
Here’s the thing people miss: the debt amortizes with the contract. The customer is literally paying it down.
Average interest ends up at ~$2.4m per MW per year. That’s ~12% of revenue.
Step 3: the stress test (the part the bears skip)
What does IREN need in revenue per MW to make the same profit if rates go up?
Debt at 12% → $21.0m/MW
Debt at 15% → $22.0m/MW
Debt at 18% → $23.0m/MW
And if they got zero extra pricing? At 15% they’d still sit at ~28% margin per MW.
Profit per MW only hits zero around ~34% interest. 👀
Step 4: now look at what pricing has done
While everyone has been worried about financing costs, compute pricing has gone the other way.
Just look at the GPU rental data from @silicondata: prices are up from ~$6 to ~$7.5 an hour since July. Over the same period, the stock has lost ~50% of its market cap.
IREN’s own contracts tell the same story:
MSFT deal: ~10-11m/MW
3-year pricing: up ~125% since November
NVIDIA deal (May): ~$14m/MW
Recent deals (September): ~$23m/MW
Active talks: ~$25m/MW and increasing🔥
At $25m/MW, IREN could pay ~24% on its debt and still make the same profit per MW as at $20m and 9% today.🤯
And I havent even counted the prepayments. Customers are paying 45–55% of the GPU capex up front. Interest-free.
“Starting to finance our build-out for us.”
Dan Roberts, on IREN’s customers
So what am I actually saying?
A 6pp rate hike costs IREN ~$2m per MW.
Going from $20m to $25m per MW is worth ~$5m per MW.
The debt has grown, yes.
The economics of every MW that debt is financing have grown faster.
TLDR= Pricing > rates
Chris Hacken retweeted
Feels like the public interpretation is all wrong…
I’m pretty sure $MSFT backing out on NScale deal is bullish for Neoclouds like $NBIS or even $IREN with energized capacity with Microsoft?
Pretend Microsoft just ate a bunch of Chipotle burittos:
- They order toilet paper delivery scheduled Q1 2027
- NScale says: sorry 3-4+ year delay of the toilet paper (into 2030’s) because of UK grid constraints
- Microsoft still urgently needs toilet paper so they will get it elsewhere
The cancellation does send warnings about what happens if a Neocloud can’t execute on contracted demand.
But that just makes the other toilet paper sellers more valuable since Microsoft will go elsewhere for supply.
Chris Hacken retweeted
Chief Design Officer @jgebbia officially unveils America.gov, the new online home for the United States of America
Chris Hacken retweeted
10 yrs ago I remember wishing for the life I have now. I did everything: work hard, pissed people off, took risks, became selfish, you name it - to make my dreams come true and I did. But the dreams were from 10 years ago. I have new dreams now, and I’ll make them come true too
Chris Hacken retweeted
Annual reminder: Bethlehem Steel was able to build a ship a day during WW2.
Chris Hacken retweeted
Why would you claim both that the AI can create a super-virus that will wipe out the entire world and also create a bio lab specifically to be used by the AI?
Anthropic has set up a wet lab in San Francisco, their bio research has advanced beyond in silico. They are now conducting physical research both in-house and with external partners. The NYT also broke the news this morning that Anth now plans to scale its compute to 5 GW by the end of the year, and 10 GW within the next 16 months. Bio is next after math, and I think we are going to see some medical announcements much sooner than people are expecting.
Chris Hacken retweeted
Anthropic: "AI will kill us all!"
Everyone: "How?"
Anthropic: "Because it is smart."
Everyone: "Can you be more specific?"
Anthropic: "We are going to build a bio lab for it."
Everyone: "..."
This is like an episode of Seinfeld.
ANTHROPIC BUILDS BIOLOGY LAB TO PUSH AI INTO DRUG DEVELOPMENT
Anthropic has quietly established a Bay Area wet lab, moving its life-sciences ambitions beyond computer simulations and into physical biological experiments.
The company wants Claude to direct laboratory robots with limited human intervention, potentially accelerating research into rare and traditionally “undruggable” diseases.
Anthropic says it will focus on preclinical research rather than clinical trials, avoiding direct competition with pharmaceutical companies.
Chris Hacken retweeted
Holy crap POTUS just phoned in @JensenHuang live on stage at All In Summit
We will not lose the ai race! And whatever Dario said this weekend won’t stop our progress
This made my morning!
$NVDA
Chris Hacken retweeted
This is what "pacing the frontier" meant for nuclear energy in America vs. China.
Chris Hacken retweeted
I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way.
And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition.
1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab.
-> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI.
-> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition.
Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself
2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown).
It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability.
Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons"
3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given.
It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes:
-> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China.
If they wanted to slow down, they could have done so themselves at any point in time:
Yet everyone is still fighting over the scarce resources to run AI as seen with memory procurement from Samsung going all the way to 2031.
Or the $NVDA / $AVGO supply constrained 70-100%+ Y/Y growth protections.
So I suggest people unfollow the clowns on X that predict AI stocks from $NVDA to $TSM to $MU will crash for engagement.
All this does is cause retail to panic short term and hand over the keys to the kingdom over to others.
