@cmrallday

Crypto since ’12 | Web3, XRP | Mostly thinking out loud

Joined April 2021
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  • Followers1.7K
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CMR
@cmralldayOct 18
Almost nobody's talking about this. The last two times the Fed hiked in September of a midterm year, Bitcoin did the EXACT same thing. It went quiet for about 50 days. Everyone got comfortable. Then it fell apart. 2018: day 50 was the week it broke $6K and crashed. 2022: day 50 was the FTX collapse. The Fed hiked in September again this year. Day 50 is November 5. And it all repeats if Bitcoin closes the week under 83K. That's the trigger. Bitcoin's at $81.6K right now. $1,400 under it, and the week closes tonight. Odds aren't looking good. Same setup. Same calendar. Different year. My call: $58K by Christmas.
Graph comparing Bitcoin's price movement after Fed rate hikes in September for 2018, 2022, and projected for 2026, highlighting potential declines.

ALT Graph comparing Bitcoin's price movement after Fed rate hikes in September for 2018, 2022, and projected for 2026, highlighting potential declines.

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CMR retweeted
CMR
@cmrallday11h
If you're lost on the Comey news, here's the simple version: 1. The DOJ just charged him under the Espionage Act, his third federal case. 2. They say he had FBI staff pass classified info to a New York Times reporter in 2016. 3. They filed it exactly 10 years to the day, the last day they legally could. 4. There's no grand jury indictment, so his lawyers say they missed the deadline anyway. 5. The story? Yahoo secretly scanning its users' emails for the feds. Everyone's yelling about Comey, number 5 should SCARE you.
James Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee, discussing matters related to federal investigations and classified information.

ALT James Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee, discussing matters related to federal investigations and classified information.

A laptop displays Yahoo's email login page, highlighting a report on the company's alleged role in U.S. email surveillance.

ALT A laptop displays Yahoo's email login page, highlighting a report on the company's alleged role in U.S. email surveillance.

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CMR retweeted
CMR
@cmrallday9h
Imagine spending FIVE YEARS fighting the SEC... Only to end up getting federal approval to build your own BANK. Same regulator as JPMorgan's. That's literally Ripple. From fighting regulators in court to getting the green light for a federally supervised trust bank. And now Swell is about to kick off in New York. If you hold XRP, I genuinely don't think you're ready for what's coming. This is a completely different Ripple than five years ago.
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CMR retweeted
CMR
@cmrallday13h
everyone's watching the fed on wednesday, but the decision might be the least interesting part here's why the fed hiked in september 94 out of 100 economists expect rates to stay unchanged this week but all 100 in reuters' latest poll expect another hike in december so wednesday isn't really about the rate decision it's about what warsh says afterwards one sentence that changes expectations for december and suddenly everyone's a long-term investor again
Schedule of key events affecting cryptocurrency from October 27 to November 3, highlighting deadlines and financial announcements.

ALT Schedule of key events affecting cryptocurrency from October 27 to November 3, highlighting deadlines and financial announcements.

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Imagine spending FIVE YEARS fighting the SEC... Only to end up getting federal approval to build your own BANK. Same regulator as JPMorgan's. That's literally Ripple. From fighting regulators in court to getting the green light for a federally supervised trust bank. And now Swell is about to kick off in New York. If you hold XRP, I genuinely don't think you're ready for what's coming. This is a completely different Ripple than five years ago.
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If you're lost on the Comey news, here's the simple version: 1. The DOJ just charged him under the Espionage Act, his third federal case. 2. They say he had FBI staff pass classified info to a New York Times reporter in 2016. 3. They filed it exactly 10 years to the day, the last day they legally could. 4. There's no grand jury indictment, so his lawyers say they missed the deadline anyway. 5. The story? Yahoo secretly scanning its users' emails for the feds. Everyone's yelling about Comey, number 5 should SCARE you.
James Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee, discussing matters related to federal investigations and classified information.

ALT James Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee, discussing matters related to federal investigations and classified information.

A laptop displays Yahoo's email login page, highlighting a report on the company's alleged role in U.S. email surveillance.

ALT A laptop displays Yahoo's email login page, highlighting a report on the company's alleged role in U.S. email surveillance.

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everyone's watching the fed on wednesday, but the decision might be the least interesting part here's why the fed hiked in september 94 out of 100 economists expect rates to stay unchanged this week but all 100 in reuters' latest poll expect another hike in december so wednesday isn't really about the rate decision it's about what warsh says afterwards one sentence that changes expectations for december and suddenly everyone's a long-term investor again
Schedule of key events affecting cryptocurrency from October 27 to November 3, highlighting deadlines and financial announcements.

ALT Schedule of key events affecting cryptocurrency from October 27 to November 3, highlighting deadlines and financial announcements.

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uptober has 5 days left to beat the fraud allegations bitcoin needs to close above $83,556 on saturday or we're getting back-to-back red octobers for the first time in 14 years and before that we've got the fed, big tech earnings and a massive options expiry all that chaos just to see if we can finish the month $1 in profit
Graph displays Bitcoin's October returns from 2013 to 2026, highlighting three negative months and current performance requirements for 2026.

ALT Graph displays Bitcoin's October returns from 2013 to 2026, highlighting three negative months and current performance requirements for 2026.

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people really managed to lose money on the stock market while the stock market was closed polymarket had flávio bolsonaro at 80% to win brazil's election traders were betting on brazilian stocks going up then lula won brazil's main stock ETF dropped almost 20% in after-hours trading we've officially found a way to lose monday's money on sunday
Polling predicted an 80% win for Bolsonaro, but Lula secured 51.8%. ETF values dropped 22% post-results announcement.

ALT Polling predicted an 80% win for Bolsonaro, but Lula secured 51.8%. ETF values dropped 22% post-results announcement.

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Last week I said a close under 83K was the trigger. Bitcoin just did it for the SECOND week in a row. Six weeks of chop. Same as 2018. Same as 2022. Both of those broke around day 50. The Fed decides Wednesday. Day 50 is NEXT week. Don't get comfortable.
CMR
@cmralldayOct 18
Almost nobody's talking about this. The last two times the Fed hiked in September of a midterm year, Bitcoin did the EXACT same thing. It went quiet for about 50 days. Everyone got comfortable. Then it fell apart. 2018: day 50 was the week it broke $6K and crashed. 2022: day 50 was the FTX collapse. The Fed hiked in September again this year. Day 50 is November 5. And it all repeats if Bitcoin closes the week under 83K. That's the trigger. Bitcoin's at $81.6K right now. $1,400 under it, and the week closes tonight. Odds aren't looking good. Same setup. Same calendar. Different year. My call: $58K by Christmas.
Graph comparing Bitcoin's price movement after Fed rate hikes in September for 2018, 2022, and projected for 2026, highlighting potential declines.

ALT Graph comparing Bitcoin's price movement after Fed rate hikes in September for 2018, 2022, and projected for 2026, highlighting potential declines.

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You genuinely couldn't make this up. A woman in China scams over 100,000 people, converts the money into Bitcoin and flees to London on a fake passport. British police eventually seize 61,000 BTC. Fast forward a few years and that Bitcoin is worth nearly $5 BILLION. Here's where it gets ridiculous. China bans crypto trading. Britain spends years warning people about crypto. Now there's $5 billion sitting in a wallet and suddenly everyone's very interested in who owns it. A London court just made it harder for the victims to claim the coins, potentially leaving the UK holding the bag. Except this time the bag is worth billions. Two governments that spent years treating Bitcoin like a problem now have a multibillion-dollar reason to fight over it. Turns out Bitcoin becomes a lot less dangerous when it's in your own wallet.
Three blocks detail a Ponzi scheme involving Bitcoin, highlighting legal battles in the UK, China's cryptocurrency ban, and victim losses.

ALT Three blocks detail a Ponzi scheme involving Bitcoin, highlighting legal battles in the UK, China's cryptocurrency ban, and victim losses.

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If gold can't pump during a war, what exactly is it hedging?
The chart displays weekly changes in commodity and asset prices, highlighting gold's decline of 3.5% amid significant market movements.

ALT The chart displays weekly changes in commodity and asset prices, highlighting gold's decline of 3.5% amid significant market movements.

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Trump asking "do I make a deal or do I finish them off" on live TV is the most villain arc sentence a president has ever said on a Sunday morning
Kalshi
@KalshiOct 25
JUST IN: Trump says he's thinking whether to make a deal with Iran or "finish them off"
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apologies for being nine and financially illiterate
Watcher.Guru
@WatcherGuruOct 25
POV: You invested just $10 a month into Bitcoin since it launched.
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Opening a leveraged long on a Saturday while the US is pulling people out of its embassies is the trading version of texting your ex at 3 AM. You knew how it ends
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good morning legends day 17 of putting the xrp logo where you least expect it, until $xrp hits $5
A large stadium displays an arranged pattern of dark and light seats forming an X, with a busy soccer match happening below.

ALT A large stadium displays an arranged pattern of dark and light seats forming an X, with a busy soccer match happening below.

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Everyone's celebrating Franklin Templeton putting another $150M on the XRP Ledger. But they're missing the most important detail. Franklin can freeze those tokens. Nobody can freeze $XRP. Banks can issue tokens. Funds can tokenize billions. Stablecoins can come and go. But issuer-controlled assets come with someone holding the keys. @XRP doesn't. Same ledger. Different rules. That's the part nobody's talking about.
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In 2021, Matt Damon told crypto that fortune favors the brave. Then the market crashed. Five years later, he's keynoting Ripple's Swell. XRP holders have been brave this entire time. Fortune, you're up.
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Between now and day 50, Bitcoin has to get through all of this: Two weekly closes with 82K on the line The Fed Big Tech earnings that same night PCE the very next morning Billions in options expiring The midterms Bulls need every single one to go right. Bears need ONE.
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US banks are finding AI agents inside people's accounts, some doing things the owner never asked for. Their fix? Block them. JPMorgan already did. But AI agents are going to need to pay for stuff whether banks like it or not. So where do they end up? A Crypto wallet. No bank needed.
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Keep your eyes on the counter. Every hit is a REAL hack from the last 48 hours. Banks. Governments. The code most of the internet runs on. And AI is just getting started. Would you rather have your money in a bank or in a cold wallet?
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