raheel.dev

Here is a quick 2-minute commentary on my view of the Indian markets currently and what I will be doing moving forward: The realistic worse-case scenario that I see in Nifty is a 3-5% correction from current levels. This could be the case if: 1. US-Iran talks stay stuck and Brent goes back above $110. Higher crude negatively impacts our rupee and leads to higher inflation. 2. The rupee breaks its 96.96 record low. FPIs keep selling. They've already pulled out over ₹3 lakh cr this year. 3. September CPI comes in hot and RBI signals another hike in December. Repo is 5.50% but RBI itself sees Q3 inflation at 6%. 4. The Fed hikes again on 28 Oct and the US 10Y stays near 5%. 5. Q2 earnings disappoint (likely that the impact of heightened crude will show up in the form of compressed business margins this quarter). Why I don't see worse than that: - Nifty is at ~18x FY27 earnings, below its long-term average - DIIs have been net buyers for 38 straight months - FPI ownership is at a record low, so there's little left to sell - Earnings are still growing: Nifty profits were up 18% YoY in Q1 Here's my game plan: - I have controlled my leverage for now. This is not the time to go crazy. - Part of my portfolio allocation sits in Gold and Silver in the US so that I am not exposed to duty cut risks. - I have already begun aggregating fundamentally strong stocks that I believe will bounce back the quickest once the macro environment gets better. - I have also deployed some of my cash reserves during this week's fall for the same. - The last and final 10% of my cash reserves will only be deployed if Nifty breaches its current lows and goes down further.

Over the next 5 years, these are the 4 sectors I’m most bullish on in India: ⚡ Power & Electrification AI, data centres, EVs, manufacturing and renewables all need one thing: more electricity. I believe this could be one of the strongest structural themes of the decade. Companies worth researching: • Hitachi Energy India • Siemens India • Polycab India • CG Power 🏗️ Capital Goods & Industrials India’s capex cycle still looks like it’s in its early stages. Automation, engineering and industrial manufacturing should continue to benefit. Companies worth researching: • Larsen & Toubro • ABB India • Thermax • Cummins India 🏦 Financials As India’s economy grows and household savings continue shifting towards financial assets, quality financial institutions should remain long-term beneficiaries. Companies worth researching: • HDFC Bank • ICICI Bank • CDSL • BSE 🏥 Healthcare An ageing population, rising healthcare spending and global pharma outsourcing make this a compelling structural story. Companies worth researching: • Apollo Hospitals • Divi’s Laboratories • Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories • Max Healthcare I believe investors who identify the right businesses within these sectors have a strong chance of generating meaningful alpha over the next few years.