BlackLonelyCat

Dear Solana: Solana is my favorite blockchain to transact on. It is still one of my favorite assets to trade. And when price is attractive, I still think there is a good case for accumulating it. But I am less bullish on SOL’s next-cycle price targets than I was last time. Last cycle, while everyone was calling for $500+ SOL, I publicly said I planned to be out before $250. Solana’s ATH came earlier than BTC and much of the market, but that call ended up being pretty damn close. This time, unless I see a real fundamental shift, I will probably be lowering my targets. As things stand now, I would likely be out before $200 next cycle. That is not because I hate Solana. I don’t. But love is not a sound investment thesis. The reasons are pretty straightforward. Pump fun has historically made up a meaningful chunk of Solana volume, and I believe the pump (and broader memecoin casino) meta is dying. Maybe it evolves. Maybe something replaces it. But pretending that was not a significant driver of activity feels dishonest. Solana DeFi has also taken a serious hit. A lot of Solana DeFi was tied into Drift, and the damage there impacted dozens of protocols. It hurt the broader perception of Solana DeFi. Then there is the capital markets side. A lot of Solana DATs were formed at some of the worst possible price points, then unwound, restructured, or de-risked at some of the worst possible price points. CT forgets everything in 72 hours but institutional capital does not. If a bunch of institutions got dragged into Solana exposure near the highs, then unwound for losses, that leaves a mark. It does not mean they will never touch SOL again. But it does mean the next wave of institutional appetite may not be as easy, clean, or deep as people assume. Then there is the cultural layer. Solana feels disjointed right now. Some of the most prominent Solana voices have spent an incredible amount of time relentlessly shilling an entirely different blockchain. Yes, ZEC is it's own Layer 1. It does not exactly scream focus on Solana itself. It reads as devs thinking their bag is cooked and so they start pumping their next bag. Only now does there finally seem to be real traction around addressing the inflation issue, which should have been more meaningfully a long time ago. But what really read as desperation to me was the @PhoenixTrade push. That moment actually influenced my vision more than any of the others. Look, I have traded over $5B in perps across various protocols. I have tested or used almost every “perp DEX” worth testing. And Phoenix is about as basic as it gets. Yes, the engineering under the hood is interesting. Fine. Mad respect to the builders. But traders do not ultimately care about engineering. They care about three things: Does it work? Can I make money there? Is it safe? And right now, the best Solana-adjacent perps venue is @pacifica_fi . I say Solana-adjacent because it is mostly the stables on-ramp and Solana TVL. It is not generating massive activity for the Solana network itself. And even Pacifica has already talked about building its own L1. (A decision I'm skeptical about, even as a fan) My exact reaction to the huge marketing push on one of the most basic perp dexs I've ever traded on was: they are so very desperate for something to gain traction on Solana it actually scares me. Solana talks a lot about what it wants to be when it grows up. And to be clear, the vision is compelling. The ambition is real. The talent is definitely real. But ambition is not maturity. Every kid wants to be a doctor, an astronaut, or a superhero when they grow up. I care more about what something actually is than what it says it wants to become. So what is my favorite new blockchain? Solana. Because you can still love something and still be rational about it. 🫡 From the depths — The White Whale 🐋