just happy to be here
Chicago, IL
Joined April 2021
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We are like 1 month away from people realizing that if we are constrained by Land/Power/Shell that it means we’ll have to tear out H100s to make space for Rubins which will decrease the useful life of GPUs and cause depreciation expense to increase.
Why would the house/senate have any impact on the speed of the AI data center buildout? This isn’t an edge network that needs to be geographically distributed near customers.
Data centers will just move out of the country, right?
This is an excellent post, and the core thesis on incremental demand is right, but I’d flip tiers A &B.
Only Meta has built an ad platform on cross-selling. Microsoft is a B2B play, Apple prides itself on privacy, Google intercepts people that are already searching for something
On Agentic:
Amazon used to say that when it reduced webpage load time by 10%, sales rose 10%: humans are incredibly sensitive to any friction, and removing it drives usage.
Internally, I've been sharing the view that the power of agents is not "please book me a flight next Tuesday using such and such criteria."
That is high friction: I am doing the work of asking, defining, etc. I may as well just do it myself.
Rather, the agent is useful when it finds you and prompts:
"Good morning, Compound. I saw you emailed @AndrewYAVB about visiting him in NYC next week. I've checked flights and your favorite hotels; here are some great options. Let me know if you want to book one or if you'd like me to use different criteria. Do you also want me to look at restaurants near your hotel for dinner?"
Or:
"Hi Compound, I saw you paid your September Verizon bill for $200 for four lines. Xfinity offers nearly identical service for $100 a month. I doubt you care who your phone provider is, and I can switch your whole family to Xfinity without you lifting a finger or noticing. I'll keep monitoring for even better deals down the road. Shall I proceed with switching?"
We want proactive AI that doesn't require you to ask it to do things. Rather, it anticipates your needs because you trust it with access to your information and it KNOWS you.
A few companies are natively well positioned for this:
Tier 1: Apple, Microsoft, Google
Tier 2: Meta
Tier 3: OpenAI, Anthropic, Amazon
Tier 1: companies that ALREADY see everything you are doing and have access to messaging, passwords, card data, addresses, contacts, calendar, purchase history, etc.
Tier 2: a ubiquitous company that passively knows a TON about you, but has much less ACCESS than Tier 1.
Tier 3: these aspire to move up and have a reasonable shot at doing so.
In Tier 1, Apple seemingly isn't even trying, which is mind-blowing. Apple might natively be the best-positioned company in the world, yet it seems ready to just ask Google to handle agentic for it.
Microsoft has a great position in enterprise, but Cowork remains Clippy, whereas Google has both enterprise and consumer.
That is also why all the AI companies want you to adopt devices you take everywhere you go, so they can monitor what you are doing and assess what you might need.
Given Apple seems to have forfeited, $GOOG probably has the pole position - it is Tier 1 AND has a world-class frontier lab.
The key is friction removal.
1/2
How long until @edzitron finally admits that Anthropic is actually producing tokens profitably (at present, given current compute/token prices)?
Don’t deflect by talking about future changes in the market from open source, they are profitable today (first 6 months of 2026)
Tobi and Zuck are close from IG/Facebook shopping collab. Smart move from Shopify is to lean into agents/muse and to turn Amazon into a distributor (Fulfillment by Amazon).
What are the odds that cap gains rate goes lower in the future? Feels like meaningful medium-term risk of a large increase as wealth gap continues to be a political sparkplug and deficit grows.
At what point should you think about selling now to lock in favorable tax treatment?
I’m not defending it entirely until I see the S1 - but this accounting debate feels unimportant. The question is whether the frontier labs are more like Uber or WeWork? One was able to transition from adjusted EBITDA to GAAP profitability, one wasn’t.
“A surprise I heard on a podcast this week with two 29yo roommates who live in SF”
OpenAI = Windows
Anthropic = MacOS
K3 = Linux
Vast majority of workloads in the future will be run open source. Closed models will still own consumer & enterprise IT markets
Vast majority of workloads that aren’t visible to consumers or avg knowledge worker will be run on open source - market is largely built on cost and avoiding vendor lock in
Nemotron/Chinese open source most likely to compete in this space, but infra/clouds are the big winner
Imagine Steve Jobs coming out on stage and saying that they’ve built a “blackberry-class” phone
Excited to release Grok 4.5 with @spacexai.
It's an Opus-class model that's fast and low cost. It's a significant step up over any model we've developed so far, including Composer 2.5, and has become the daily driver for many on our team.
First of many releases. More soon.
NJ government learns about supply & demand for $98 train tickets. I’m sure running these trains mostly-empty will totally save their tax payers a bunch of money
I think we’re still pretty early in this acceleration story.
Dashboards —> agents driving revenue acceleration today (doubly bullish if the agent driving usage is CoCo)
