Andrew England (@cornishft) profile picture

Middle East editor at Financial Times. Former Southern Africa Bureau Chief; Middle East correspondent, East Africa correspondent. Views My Own

London town
Joined October 2009
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Andrew England retweeted
Every word of this is 💯💯💯
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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Andrew England retweeted
Important, thoughtful and dignified article.
I was a very fortunate kid. My dad's GP surgery sat between the Dell and Hampshire's County Ground, so at weekends I could go to a game and get a lift home afterwards. It left me with a passion for both sports and a belief that sport opens a window onto who we are. When I was growing up, the Tebbit test was a matter of intense debate. Which side did you cheer for at the cricket? For all the criticism it received, it was a test anyone could pass. If you supported England because you saw it as home, you were part of the team regardless of the colour of your skin. Born in Southampton, 10 year old me passed it without even knowing about it. Giving the @MCCOfficial's Cowdrey Lecture on Thursday made me think about cricket's place in our national life and the current arguments about identity. In Britain we've built the world's most successful multi-faith, multi-ethnic democracy. I was a beneficiary of it. Whatever issues people had with me as PM (and there was no shortage) my race and religion weren't among them. I could read a lesson at the King's coronation or light Diwali diyas on Downing Street with my daughters without controversy. Foreign leaders assumed these must be huge symbolic moments. For most Brits, they just weren't that big a deal. But Britain's democratic achievement is now under strain. Some of the challenges are ones I've written about before, like Islamism, and the failure of governments, including the one I led, to adequately control immigration. But something else is going on - a risk that we start equating skin colour with nationality. After I left office, a debate kicked off here on @X about whether I was English at all, because I was a "brown Hindu". During the election campaign I'd been shocked when footage was broadcast of someone calling me a "Paki." It was shocking precisely because it was so unusual. That kind of abuse had simply not been a feature of my political life. But the Englishness argument was stranger still. Call it the reverse Tebbit test. If you're not white, it no longer matters who you support at the cricket, because you can never be English. It's a test no non-white person can ever pass. I have no truck with people who offend our sense of fairness and come here illegally; I spent half my premiership trying to deport them to Rwanda. I think the bar for legal migration should be high. It is entirely possible to want a radical reduction in immigration and a far more robust approach to integration, and still totally reject the attempt to turn Britishness into a DNA test. If you're born and brought up in England and view it as home, what are you other than English? Denying people their Englishness or their Britishness because of the colour of their skin is a recipe for alienation and a two-tier society. How are children who hear this meant to feel? Sport can play a small but significant role here. Cricket is played by nearly every major ethnic group in this country. Ask what my largely white rural constituents in the Dales and the British-Asian kids in Bradford have in common, and the answer is cricket. If cricket can produce England teams in which every kid can see themselves, the impact reaches far beyond the boundary. As I write in @thetimes today, we must all be on the same side, cheering for the same team. We cannot allow race to be reintroduced into our politics. We cannot allow Briton to be set against Briton.
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Andrew England retweeted
My remarks published in @FT by @cornishft: Mohammed al-Basha, founder of the Basha Report, a US-based risk advisory, says al-Houthi — who communicates his messages through lengthy video statements — has morphed into a “megalomaniac”, increasingly isolated from the outside world, but who “genuinely believes he’s going to liberate Palestine”. He describes “Houthism” as a mixture of Zaydism and jihadism, laced with “the secrecy of the Muslim Brotherhood”. ft.com/content/bb47c76c-1a41…
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Andrew England retweeted
Wow
Centcom just released an estimate of Iran war costs: $43.6 billion. Monday, the DoD IG released a cost estimate that was $10 billion less than this, but covered two fewer months. Translation: Ongoing Iran war costs have been ~$5 billion/month, much higher than we've been told.
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Andrew England retweeted
Exclusive: Lebanon and France are seeking to extend the UNIFIL peacekeeping force's mandate in south Lebanon beyond the end of this year, when it's set to end. UN Security Council members are supportive, Israel opposes the move - crucially, unclear if US will veto extension. ft.com/content/681a9df8-ab39…
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“Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet their Iranian counterpart in a push by Oman and Iran to secure buy-in for a deal temporarily managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.” Important scoop by @cornishft. Gift link: giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
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Andrew England retweeted
My press comments published by Financial Times @FT's Andrew England @cornishft: Mohammed Al-Basha, founder of the US-based risk advisory firm Basha Report, said the [Yemen Army] counteroffensive has put the Houthis under the most significant pressure since 2022. But, he added, the rebels would “fight tooth and nail rather than simply fold”. “This is the beginning of the full-scale war and it’s going to be a protracted conflict, there’s not going to be a quick win,” Albasha said. “All sides have been preparing for years.” ft.com/content/07e5851c-5e3b…
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Rabbi Jeremy Gordon of the New London Synagogue has written an important column about the UK government’s sanctions against the unlawful Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories: “I do not share with those who feel that lovers of Israel, and supporters of Jewish life in this country must oppose, as a matter of course, sanctions designed to limit and draw attention to the damage caused by settler extremists. The British Government is saying they are not prepared to legitimise terrorism, settlements and policies that eliminate the possibility of a political resolution. That should be a cause we should support.”
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Andy Burnham is set to announce new sanctions on West Bank settlements in the coming days, Israel vows there will be a "response". “This could escalate and escalate and there’s no one to stop the slide.” How UK-Israel relations reached their worst point in decades. Me + @PickardJE @FT ft.com/content/b0ea5b66-73f4…
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Exclusive: Israel is considering expelling British officials from the postwar Gaza coordination center as retaliation against the Burnham government’s toughening positions. Germany and Italy may be next as well. Our story @FT ft.com/content/e9312df9-8bbf…
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Andrew England retweeted
My press comments published by @FT's @cornishft: Mohammed al-Basha, founder of the US-based risk advisory firm Basha Report, said Saudi Arabia has little choice but to get dragged back into a war it had spent the past four years trying to exit. “They either give the Houthis $5bn and allow them to fly directly to Tehran, allow them to dock any ship at their ports, and hope they are not going to come back in a few years and ask for $10bn,” al-Basha said. “Or you use that $5bn to support your anti-Houthi coalition of Yemenis to push the Houthis to get down from their high horse and negotiate.” ft.com/content/17583c3f-f8f4…
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