For the entire year we've been heads down building. Today I can finally tell you what it is. It's called Forecaster. The whole thing started from something that has always bugged me: You can follow the timeline all day and still not know who's actually right. Everyone sounds certain. Nobody keeps score. So we built the place that does. Every call in the open, win or lose. Find out who's actually right. Then back them. We're calling it skill markets. That's all I'll say for now. More soon on @Forecaster_gg.

Been thinking about why it's so hard to know who to listen to on here. Getting attention and being right are two totally different skills. But pretty much everything on this app ranks you by the first one. And everyone kinda knows it. Most traders on here have a couple of small accounts, under a thousand followers, that they check first thing every morning. You just can't keep track of every caller yourself, so we all end up scrolling with one eyebrow up. I've spent most of this year working on a version where the ranking comes from being right. Mostly because I'd love to stop scrolling with one eyebrow up lol.

Everyone’s bearish because this bull market isn’t playing out the way they expected - not because price is actually bad.

Options are the hot new thing in crypto. Yet everything I read suggests they’re more degen than perps and 90% of buyers lose money. What if there was a new synthetic that costs nothing and pays you if you’re right? Probably sounds too good to be true, right? Well we’re building it anyway. @forecaster_gg

It's deeply ironic that every market participant loves making predictions, yet prediction markets are not how they choose to express them. There has to be another way.

Higher.

Seeing a lot of gigabrain threads on how @papertrade_xyz can be exploited. Building new crypto primitives is insanely hard, mad respect to the team for trying. It’s like building an MMO where you have to anticipate every economic attack vector. Game studios hire macroeconomist PhDs to model this. The missing section in the Web3 builder curriculum is using game theory to understand how a game can be exploited, then reverse game theory to design more durable ones. This is why we haven’t seen much crypto innovation since DeFi summer. Intuitively we understand this, but it's time we write a new framework for building in Web3. The good news is AI makes these attack vectors much easier to identify. The article below introduces mechanism design as a framework for building more durable crypto games. If you’re a builder, check it out.

Crypto is firmly in its P/E ratio phase aka the revenue/FDV meta. The mistake is judging startups by current revenue instead of future potential. A good heuristic is to look at the startup and decide if you’re investing in a cash-generating machine today or a world-beating tech company tomorrow. It's why some startups command very high revenue/FDV multiples and some have criminally low multiples despite great revenue. That’s essentially the difference between buying something like $HYPE and another gacha project.

The problem with the “long degeneration” thesis, whereby young people can’t save for a house fiat mining so they’ll speculate and gamble their way there, is that it treats every asset the same. Sure, younger generations are more likely to start investing early to escape the underclass. But do you really think they’re buying $KIMCHI or playing prediction markets instead of longing the shiny new AI stock?

Hot take: PnL is the worst way to rank people for socialFi. People worship the guys at the top of the leaderboard because they think it will lead them to riches, but PnL measures outcomes, not calls. PnL tells you how much a caller made, but it ignores size, timing, and hit rate. It doesn’t tell you if those people got a headstart (aka insiders). It doesn't tell you whether anyone following them actually made anything. So the leaderboard ends up rewarding whoever is best positioned to sell to their own followers.

Up.

Generally think sentiment is a piss poor signal and permabulls convinced we’re going up because sentiment is so bad should also ask themselves what fundamental reason there is to go up - given headwinds like the Dems winning the midterms, more rate hikes and geopolitical tensions. That said, I remain bullish in the short term.

You can feel the anger on the timeline. So many people have been led to despair following the wrong people - buying coins that have gone -75% in the middle of a bull market. “This time it’s different,” you told yourself. It never is. We saw the same thing with AI agents. The narratives change, the outcome doesn’t. What is different this time is the distrust in KOLs has reached boiling point. The social layer is broken and it’s becoming impossible to ignore. The solution is an app where everyone’s track record is visible and those who are actually good rise to the top. This is the most pressing issue we must solve in crypto today.

Very on-brand for BTC to start the day bullish, reverse and liquidate the bulls, then end the day bullish again - all on an illiquid Sunday. Lol.

End the week above 82.8k to confirm the bear trap then run it back to new highs, inshallah.

You will never hear a KOL talk about risk management. Yet watch any interview with someone who's made it over decades across different markets and that's all they ever talk about. Why? Because risk management doesn't sell dreams. It doesn't get clicks. But ask yourself this: are you going to trust someone who's proven over decades, or someone who's popular but whose track record you have zero clue about? Eventually every CT participant comes to this conclusion.