Debt-fueled AI boom risks leasing-style bust.

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Fresh capital is flowing into Bitcoin. This only happens in bull markets.

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Bitcoin miners are no longer under pressure to sell. MARA, the largest publicly traded miner, has an average mining cost of $59,774 per BTC, well below market price. Hash rate has been rising for 2 months after a 9-month decline. More mining rigs = miners are bullish.

Lending platforms are seeing a surge in $10M+ loans. According to CoinRabbit, USDT borrowing by users posting $10M+ in BTC jumped 83% last month. Whales are borrowing against BTC to buy more crypto or other assets. They are not betting on another major drawdown. Risk on.

I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market. When Bitcoin was smaller and retail dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes. Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside. The PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, reflects this: less extreme cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels. This cycle, MVRV never fell below 1. Even at the lows, BTC stayed above holders' average on-chain cost basis. Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater. Meanwhile: → Rising realized cap signals fresh capital inflows. → OG whales have stopped selling. → Futures whales built large longs near the bottom. Even the PnL Index's 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now. None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money. The road here was messy and nothing like a straight line, but the destination may be closer to what Satoshi described than the speculative years ever were: an asset stable enough to actually be used as money. The vision shared by Satoshi and generations of Bitcoiners, once called a self-fulfilling prophecy, may finally be becoming reality. Once Bitcoin grows mature enough to serve as real money, internet-native capital could reshape the world in ways far beyond what you imagine.