Doshane Capital 🏦

Neoclouds are CRASHING 10% after Texas turned blue and its new governor threatened to pause data center construction. $NBIS has ZERO MW in Texas. Not online. Not in the pipeline. NOTHING. Its U.S. pipeline is elsewhere: • Independence, Missouri: 1.2 GW • Pennsylvania: up to 1.2 GW • Birmingham, Alabama: 300 MW • Vineland, New Jersey: 300 MW And it has something no other neocloud has: a real European footprint. Finland, France, the UK, Iceland, Israel, Spain. If the U.S. gets hostile to data centers, $NBIS is the hedge. In fact, a pause in Texas, home to 27% of planned U.S. data center capacity, is BULLISH for $NBIS. Less new supply = every MW already online is worth MORE. The market is selling the wrong stock.

My 2030 price target for $NBIS is $3,000. Here’s why. Nebius expects to have at least 5 GW of active compute capacity deployed by 2030. And the economics are getting stronger: • Annual revenue used to be around $10M per MW. • Long-term contracts are now closer to $20–25M per MW. • Short-term capacity can reach $40–50M per MW. And this is far from over. The imbalance between AI compute supply and demand is expected to keep widening for at least another 18–24 months. For 2030, I’m assuming $25M (conservatively) in annual revenue per MW. 5,000 MW × $25M = $125B in annual revenue. Now comes profitability. AWS currently operates at ~40% operating margins, implying an estimated net margin of around 30%. At scale, I’m modeling a 25% net margin for Nebius. $125B revenue × 25% = $31.25B in net income. And the growth won’t stop in 2030. Management expects to add at least 1.5–2 GW of incremental compute capacity annually. From a 5 GW base, that’s another 30–40% in annual capacity growth. A company generating over $31B in annual net income while expanding capacity at that pace deserves a premium valuation. I’m assigning it a 30x P/E. $31.25B × 30 = ~$940B market cap. I’m also factoring in approximately 25% additional share dilution by 2030 to account for the massive capital required to fund this expansion. That brings my price target to approximately $3,000 per share. A nearly $1 trillion company by 2030. And potentially still growing capacity by 30–40% annually. The market is massively underestimating what Nebius is building.

My 2030 price target for $NBIS is $3,000 per share. The math is simple: • 5 GW of active compute capacity • $25M annual revenue per MW • $125B in annual revenue • 25% net margin • ~$31B in net income • 30x P/E • ~25% dilution That gets me to roughly $3,000 per share. And the most interesting part is that $25M per MW isn’t an aggressive assumption. Nebius is already signing long-term capacity around $20–25M/MW, while short-term capacity can reach $40–50M/MW. AI demand can scale exponentially. Physical infrastructure can’t. That imbalance makes every MW of compute more valuable. I broke down my entire $NBIS valuation model and the path to $3,000 in my new video.