Cryptowriter

My thoughts currently: - Macro is extremely terrible. You can delay a recession/crash but at this point it’s unavoidable. - US government wants you believing Iran conflict is the reason for the current inflation + yields spike. This is not true. It’s adding fuel to the fire but the main culprit is AI capex crowding out government bonds. For the first time in history the private sector is crowding out the public sector for investor’s money. - Interest rates are hence going so much higher than anyone expects but will probably not cause the shock everyone is thinking they would cause by spiking up. - Although I said recession is possible I don’t believe a 2008 scenario is possible due to the simple fact that the banking sector is solid AF. So yes, the AI trade will blow up big and bad but banks are fine and no systemic issues will follow that collapse. Job losses could spike and an ugly stagflation environment could persist for a while but by no means will there be any systemic risk or massive collapse or any bear porn doomposting. It will be a huge buy the dip opportunity. - The era of the fed holding money hose aka QE and firing it at everybody is over. From now on, QE’s only job will either be to bail out the banking sector or stabilize it. Internal plumbing within the financial sector will be the move forward. Sound money isn’t coming back as governments have to fund ridiculously overblown budgets but neither will the free QE era of 2009-2022. - A massive energy shock is in the making and nobody has any idea how bad it will get or when it will end. That’s the biggest tailwind now. - AI capex is reaching its limits for now. This is wave 1 of early companies and 90% of them won’t survive to reap the rewards just like what happened with the dotcom bubble. All the AI is dangerous and will destroy us all advocates are a bunch of clowns. - Massive massive rehiring will come again in a couple of years tops. The biggest losers will be the companies who rushed to lay off their staff early on. They destroyed their public picture forever. - All markets are at a coinflip right now and the direction is 50/50 at best but considering all what I said and all this bearishness, tbh it makes sense that shitcoins pop like popcorn. The only counter argument I have here is what if they already had their scam pump and oblivion is upon us? I will play any dips we get but at best with 25% of my portfolio and will be happy with whatever 50-100% profit I make if any. - Unfollow the crypto will decouple a pump on its own crowd. Your better off without unless you wanna test losing all of your money before the real BTFD moment. Any bets here should never be made with 100% size neither on the bullish or bearish sides. - Shorting right now is dangerously destructive despite it being the best R/R in almost all markets except energy. - Key is to survive, make monthly income and stack $$$ as I believe whatever is coming will make plenty of new millionaires. - Finally, for freaking God’s sake ditch the fucking meme platforms before you lose everything you have you psychotic stupid fucks. Over and out.

The problem with the latest drop in btc is that it happened in the last hour of the weekly and 2W close, manipulating it to close BELOW the previous body candle and avoiding a SFP by a small margin. The close now looks ugly. Period. This didn’t happen in summer 2023 nor march 2023. The caveat or glimmer of hope is that usdt dom closed below and made sfp. They really don’t wanna giveaway their intentions. Meanwhile total1/2/3 and others all look uglier than btc not to mention the horrendous behavior on eth has no beautiful/positive way to look at it. One data point (usdt) looks optimistic and the rest look ugly AF. Dead cat bounce imo and we head lower. Got a long though so will eat a stop if wrong.

This guy gets it lol

Stop following anybody else’s calls but your own and you will start making money.

Plan for the upcoming period We go up above 80k =short to new lows with trailing stops We go down straight to 71-66k then buy the fear and most likely market bottomed (for now) I believe this could a prolonged bear where people go crazy. The real risk this time doesn’t come from crypto but tradfi. Anything in the middle then i play it short term for quick profits. Max pain scenario right now is that we go straight to 50k without a single retrace. Lots of ppl will get giga burned trying to buy dips including me.

Had gold and silver longs Gold printing while freaking silver took my stop and literally exploded lol

Even that he tacos on

I am a very light user of LLMs. I only chat with them. When I pay for a 20$/month subcription I thought I would never hit the limit but I just received a warning today for the first time ever that I hit 50% of my limit for the week. Luckily my premium plus sub ends mid December. After that, I am out of here. Will get a low tier subscription and that's it.