Chris Delaney (@csdelan) header
Chris Delaney (@csdelan) profile picture

Software engineer, Professional Trader. My free substack site and discord have trade setups and analysis.

Joined June 2009
Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)Photo by Chris Delaney (@csdelan)
Here is my current take on the very long term gold chart, with EW and LT cycle counts included. If there are any major changes to this chart, I will post it. But for now, I think we have many years of upside ahead of us. Of course, nothing ever goes in a straight line, but that major breakout level in the 2000 range should really hold from hereon out.
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Chris Delaney retweeted
I’m convinced that 90% of the people who are aggressively anti-AI have never actually used Claude Opus 5.5. And I guarantee that if you sat them down, gave them access to it, and let them use it properly for a few hours, the overwhelming majority would completely change their minds. Because there’s a massive difference between reading about what AI can do and actually experiencing it. The moment you realize you can turn almost any idea into reality, solve problems you never thought you could solve, and accomplish things that previously required entire teams of experts, your entire perspective changes. You stop seeing AI as a threat and start seeing it as the greatest opportunity humanity has ever had. I genuinely believe most anti-AI sentiment comes from people who have absolutely no idea what they’re opposing.
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Chris Delaney retweeted
Socialists want the prosperity, abundance, innovation, rising wages, and higher living standards that capitalism makes possible, while demanding the abolition of the very incentives, property rights, and freedoms that produce them. They want the fruits while destroying the roots.
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Replying to @tomfgoodwin
Take a look at the avalanche of cyber security issues discovered by AI over the past few months. Now imagine an alternative universe where the government of China was the only entity on the planet with AI that powerful because we banned it here.
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AI is underrated by 95+% of folks
“AI is a tool for the rich.” It’s $20 a month. Hiring a lawyer is $300 an hour. A tutor is $60. A developer is $10,000 a project. The rich always had access to expert help. AI is the first time everyone else does too.
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If the democrats successfully pass a ban on Superintelligence, this will have negative ramifications that will ripple out for the next 100 years: 1) The final stock market top is in, possibly for several decades to come 2) China will win the AI race, and Chinese cultural influence will spread like wildfire 3) China will become the sole super power of the world 4) The US will be guaranteed to have a financial apocalypse in the coming years that will be the biggest in the country's history. Massive exponential AI growth was the only way to avoid it, and that is the last straw. 5) The DSA will probably win in 2028, and the US will sink into full socialism, and eventually Communism. Civil war possible, break up of the nation possible. The SuperIntelligence ban is the dumbest proposal ever proposed by anyone. It's completely destructive on every level, and is fueled by social media and news media fear mongering.
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That list is only the first batch. There's a lot of other negative effects, such as a delaying of massive new benefits for humanity such as curing all diseases, streamlining government bureaucracy. AI is the ultimate economic leveling tool, 1000x more effective than socialism.
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China: 80% of citizens are pro-AI. US: (because of media brainwashing and fear mongering): 20% pro-AI
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I think at least 2 of 3 of those would happen, and probably other things too. It's literally existential to the country as we know it.
My biggest concern is that if there is a clean sweep by Democrats of the House, Senate and Presidency in 2028, they will: 1. Make DC and Puerto Rico states to gain a strong majority in the Senate. 2. Open the borders and legalize everyone living in America illegally to cement a permanent majority. 3. Increase the size of the Supreme Court to gain an immediate majority. This would result in America becoming a permanent one-party state and the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word. All that is needed to ensure this doesn’t happen is 51 Republican senators in 2029. That is why you should vote for Republican senators this election. Other reasons are irrelevant compared to this one.
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US: The longer we keep money in politics, the longer we will be guaranteed a dysfunctional government.  The other half is accountability enforcement of all programs in government. If fails to deliver, it's gone, by law.
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The US is heavily dependent on income tax for its revenue. What happens when the unemployment rate starts to increase at a more dramatic rate from AI job displacement?
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Chris Delaney retweeted
🚨 I spend an enormous amount of time trying to understand the chaos we're living through. Not the headlines. The machine behind them. 🚨 If you want to understand what Elon Musk is really fighting, and who is really fighting him, this is the clearest map I can give you. Expensive houses. Expensive schools. Expensive healthcare. Taxes that rise every year while everything gets worse. Borders nobody voted to open. Speech rules nobody voted for. Most people look at this and blame capitalism. The market failed, they say, so the state has to step in and fix it. They have it exactly backwards. What they want to fix it with is what broke it. This isn't chaos, and it isn't capitalism. It has a direction, a method, and a hundred-year history. Let me reverse-engineer it. In 1926, Mussolini's regime threw Antonio Gramsci, co-founder of the Italian Communist Party, into prison. From his cell he asked the question that would shape the next century: why did the revolution win in Russia but fail in the West, where Marx said it was inevitable? His answer: in Russia, the state was everything, so seizing it was enough. In the West, the state was only the outer wall. Behind it stood the real fortress: the church, the family, the school, the press, the culture. Western workers never revolted because the culture held them. So the conclusion was simple. Don't storm the palace. Capture the culture. Win the institutions and you never have to win the argument, because you decide which arguments are allowed. In 1967, the German student leader Rudi Dutschke gave it a slogan: the long march through the institutions. Paris supplied the intellectual software, and I've already apologized for my country's part in that. Then came the most patient operation in modern history. The students of the 60s became the professors of the 80s. Their students became the journalists, judges, civil servants and HR directors of the 2000s. Their students now run the foundations, the NGOs and the agencies. No single step looked like a revolution. That's exactly why it worked. The method was communist. The ambition became global. And it grew like a cancer. A cancer never attacks the body head-on. It hijacks the body's own cells and feeds on the body's own resources. This system never had to defeat the West. It just had to make the West pay for it. In America, the machine found a political home: the Democratic Party. Not the millions of decent people who vote for it. The apparatus. The donor networks, the activist groups, the consultants, the captured agencies that keep moving in the same direction whoever wins. In Europe, it found something even better. The EU's founders, Schuman, Adenauer, De Gasperi, were Catholic anti-communists who wanted to make war impossible. But they built exactly what the long march dreams of: power that never has to face a voter. A Commission nobody directly elects holds the right to propose laws for 450 million people. Chat Control. The digital euro. Speech rules written in Brussels. Nobody stormed anything. They just drafted it. Add the World Economic Forum, the UN agencies and the global foundation circuit, and you have the full map. You don't need a secret meeting when everyone went to the same schools, reads the same papers, funds the same NGOs and flies to the same conference in Davos every January. It's not a conspiracy. It's a class with shared incentives. That's harder to fight, because there's no headquarters to raid. And the billionaires? Most people who became the richest in the world got absorbed. They built something real, then traded it for an aura. Bill Gates is the perfect example: he built the software that ran the world, then became the bankroller of global health bureaucracies and the funder of newsrooms covering his own causes. Laurene Powell Jobs bought The Atlantic. Benioff bought Time. You're not buying a business. You're buying the right to be called good by the people who decide who is good. That's the corruption. Not suitcases of cash. Money for aura, grants for loyalty, NGOs for policy. All legal. All invisible. Here's the proof it's one system and not a hundred separate problems. Look at what happened to prices over the last 25 years. Everything exposed to markets and technology got cheaper: TVs, software, phones, clothing. Everything controlled by institutions exploded: college, healthcare, childcare. And housing, where you need a committee's permission to build anything. Same country, same economy, same decades. The difference isn't the product. It's who controls it. Taxes go up and services get worse, because the money doesn't reach the services. It feeds the layers. Immigration happens at a scale no electorate clearly chose, because for a system that lives on managing problems, more problems means more budget. And a two-income family today can't buy the house their parents bought on one salary. That's real poverty, manufactured by a machine that is rewarded for looking good, never for being good. MAGA isn't the cause of the chaos. It's the immune response. Brexit, the farmers' revolts, the votes shaking every European capital: same thing. The body finally noticed the tumor. So what we're living through is not a normal political cycle. It's a fight to the death between two models. One runs on the perception of goodness. The other runs on reality. And it had to be the richest man in the world. Anyone smaller would have been bought, sued or cancelled. Every billionaire before him took the deal. Elon walked out of the club and turned the lights on. He bought Twitter for $44 billion, opened the Twitter Files and gave the world back a public square where any narrative can be checked in real time. He went inside the government and helped shut down USAID. Now Politico announces that the Democrats' gavels are coming for him. His answer: he'll find out who is really pulling the strings and go after them, not just their puppets. He has one line he keeps coming back to: he cares about the reality of goodness, not the perception of it. That sentence is the whole war. Now the part that makes me certain of how it ends. A lie is expensive to maintain. It needs gatekeepers, censors, fact-checkers, friendly journalists, a budget, and constant repairs every time reality contradicts it. The truth costs nothing to maintain. It just keeps being true. AI is driving the cost of checking anything toward zero. Any budget, any study, any statistic, any promise, audited in seconds by anyone with a phone. Yes, AI can generate lies at scale too. But producing a lie is cheap. Defending it against a billion instant audits is impossible. That's what acceleration really means. It doesn't pick sides. It speeds up feedback loops. Systems aligned with reality compound. Systems built on lies hit the wall faster. And you cannot build rockets, design chips or cure diseases with a false model of the world. Physics doesn't read op-eds. The more intelligence we pour into the world, the more expensive every lie becomes. You cannot scale a lie. You can only scale what's true. We are close to the collapse of the old order and the birth of a new one. Not the one from the WEF's own 2016 video, "you'll own nothing and you'll be happy." The opposite. An order built on truth-seeking, efficiency, science, private property and free markets. You will own things. You will build things. And you'll be happy, because it will be real. Gramsci's long march took a century. Its collapse will take years. History will remember this moment. A man walked into the most powerful machine ever built, refused the deal everyone else took, and chose reality over perception. I have never been more optimistic.
🤖 Made with AI
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Chris Delaney retweeted
Banger
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Chris Delaney retweeted
Replying to @sethharpesq
Trucks are a scam because they exert a huge amount of horsepower, but no matter how hard you look and look, you'll never find a horse in them. So let's keep using real horses to haul stuff instead.
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Must read by every American. Please retweet.
My post about France went viral. Thousands of likes. Many Americans told me: "Democrats aren't socialists. America will never be France." I want to answer that seriously, step by step. Start with a simple observation. Look at what has gotten cheaper in America over the last 25 years: TVs, phones, software, clothes, toys. Now look at what has exploded: college tuition, healthcare, childcare, housing. What separates the two lists? The first lives in competitive markets. The second is exactly where government is most involved: subsidies, mandates, licensing, zoning, regulation. College. Washington lends students almost unlimited money. Universities know the money will always come, so they raise tuition and hire more administrators. The student pays the bill for twenty years. More government money, higher prices. Housing. Why can't a nurse buy a home in the city where she works? Not because of capitalism. Because of zoning laws, permits, environmental reviews, years of procedure to build a single building. The most expensive places to live in America are the places where it's hardest to build. When building is nearly illegal, prices explode. Healthcare. The patient almost never sees the price. A third party pays, regulations limit who can compete, and costs climb year after year with no one able to say no. So here is the trap. The problems you suffer from are not the failure of free markets. They are the places where the market has already been replaced by the state. And the solution you're being offered is more of the same. That's the Trojan horse. It always works the same way. A real problem. A generous-sounding promise. A program that makes things worse. Then the failure of that program becomes the argument for the next one. People who lived under communism in Poland learned to recognize the lie and the mask the lie wears. The lie never presents itself as a lie. It presents itself as compassion. In France we are at the end of that road. Debt we can never repay. Young people who can't afford a home. Our best people leaving. And every few years our cities burn. Nobody voted for this. They voted for one more generous promise, fifty years in a row. If you're a Republican, share this with the Democrat in your life. Not to win an argument. To start a conversation. If you're a Democrat, I'm not asking you to switch teams. I'm asking you to look at the pattern. Wherever the state took over, life became unaffordable. Don't fix the failures of government with more government. Stay American. Ask for less state, not more.
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This is the most accurate cartoon yet. This is epic level of insanity.
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Chris Delaney retweeted
Bernie… 1 trillionaire 989 billionaires Take all their assets you get $8.4 trillion. $8.4 trillion once. Then its gone. We spend $7 trillion a year. 1/2 is fraud. So commies like Bernie who want to tax the rich dont want to fix anything. They want to control everything.
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If you don't watch Peter Diamandis's #AI podcast "Moonshots", I highly recommend it. This is the biggest moment in the history of mankind. Don't miss it by falling into fear mongering. Join the optimists and the builders of the next generation society. youtube.com/@peterdiamandis
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How bad is our immigration problem for the long term health of the US? Think about this: In Singapore, to become a permanent resident, you need to either marry into a citizen, or be a proven serial entrepreneur with 10s of millions of dollars to invest in Singporean businesses, and hire Singaporean citizens. They only accept Top Notch contributors. In the US: Do you have a pulse? Yes? You're IN! What, you murdered a few people? no problem. You are a communist and want to kill all freedoms? We want you! Which country has a brighter future with current trajectories?
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Chris Delaneys are very wise
I have no problem with universal healthcare. I just don’t trust the government to manage it.
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People think "free" healthcare is a good thing. But EVERYONE pays for it, including the poor, in different ways. Quality and throughput time decline. It's a massive cost this is hugely underrated.
Our socialist “Medicare for All” plan is very advanced, comrade ☭
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