Poker Player, Coach and Content Creator. Part-time Streamer, Full-time Lover. Gestor da Academia da EndBoss https://xitter.gq/t.co/j6Gr4MxM1p
Oeiras, Lisboa - Portugal
Joined January 2014
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d33p 🐺 retweeted
Me falaram que Portugal tinha “acabado”.
Cheguei aqui e qualquer lugar da cidade é 100X melhor do que a parte considerada boa de qualquer capital brasileira.
Essa call “Europa acabou” é pra quem vive na Escandinávia.
Pra brasileiro é paraíso.
d33p 🐺 retweeted
There was only one call to make 📞
Welcome to GGTeam, @LexVeldhuis
d33p 🐺 retweeted
Why do short-stacked players have a theoretical edge in poker?
Suppose we're playing a 3-handed cash game (no ICM), two players have 300bb, the third has 20bb.
The short-stacked player knows--with absolute certainty--that they're playing 20bb effective, so they can optimize their strategy for that stack depth.
The deep-stacked players don't know if the hand will be 20 or 300bb effective, so they must compromise between deep-stacked and short-stacked strategy.
So as with most structural advantages in poker, it comes down to information asymmetry.
Short-stacked cash game strategies are wildly underrated in tough games for three reasons:
1) Shorter stacks mean lower variance. That means fwer less brutal downswings. Most people play worse when after running bad, so this improves your results from a performance standpoint.
2) Better risk-adjusted return improves optionality, and lower variance means you can shot-take higher stakes more aggressively (40bb eff = roughly half the bankroll requirements of 100bb) according to the Kelly criterion.
3) Cash game regs have no idea how to play vs a shortstack. Take them into a deep dark forest where 1+1=3, and the path out is only wide enough for one.
4) If everyone else is deep, over the course of one orbit the lone short-stacked player has a significant theoretical edge. A big stack can be an advantage, but it can also be a liability.
Here I measure the GTO winrate of a short-stacked (25bb) player when everyone else is deep (200bb), with 5% rake and a 1bb cap. The shortstack strategy outperforms the full-stacked one by 8.7bb per orbit!
Now, practically speaking I think you should play deep in soft games since a lot of your edge comes from fish stacking off too wide. But in tougher lineups there's a real argument to be made for playing short.
d33p 🐺 retweeted
Binance's initial investigation suggests that the security incident may involve a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawal transactions. We have found no evidence of any wallet private key leak. We will share a detailed technical post-mortem once the investigation is complete and the facts are fully verified.
The estimated total impact sits at around $6.3B. We have worked with blockchain partners to freeze affected assets, with ~$3 billion frozen on-chain so far.
Binance will cover all losses from the SAFU fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe. We will also publish an updated Proof of Reserves once the remediation is complete.
As an immediate precaution, Binance has:
- temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals while security checks are completed;
- revoked the affected address authorisation;
- engaged law enforcement and blockchain intelligence partners to trace and recover funds.
Our teams are working around the clock to resolve this issue safely and thoroughly. We are working closely with our law enforcement partners to confirm the identity of these criminals and bring them to justice.
Please rely only on official Binance channels for updates. Please feel free to contact Binance Customer Support if you have any further questions.
binance.com/en/support/annou…
d33p 🐺 retweeted
Deveríamos pedir desculpas a Portugal pela independência e devolver o país pra eles.
Ganhamos o melhor lote de terra do mundo e construimos uma bosta de país. Uma zona.
Perdão, Portugal, podem vir aqui pegar de volta.
Nosso Exército é uma bosta! Vai ser fácil, fácil.
d33p 🐺 retweeted
BREAKING: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents operating inside customer accounts, with some agents attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, per Axios
d33p 🐺 retweeted
Last night, Michael Stipe sang R.E.M.’s “E-Bow The Letter” and his Big Red Machine collab “No Time For Love Like Now” with the National’s Matt Berninger and Aaron and Bryce Dessner. It was part of AB100, a two-day festival celebrating the Dessners’ 50th birthday in the Basque region. Stipe hadn’t performed “E-Bow,” originally recorded with Patti Smith, in 17 years. Last week he said his long-awaited debut solo album will come in 2027, with the first single dropping minutes into the new year.
[📹: Atabal Biarritz]
d33p 🐺 retweeted
🇩🇪 Alemanha: o motor gripou. 🇫🇷 França: a caixa entrou em safe mode. 🇮🇹 Itália: o chassis está preso com arames e dívida. 🇪🇸 Espanha: o turbo funciona a turistas e sangria. 🇵🇹 Portugal, vai a reboque, mas paga portagens de luxo. 🇬🇷 Grécia: já foi à sucata, voltou com peças usadas. 🇧🇪 Bélgica: três mecânicos, nenhum se entende. 🇳🇱 Holanda: cobra estacionamento até ao reboque. 🇵🇱 Polónia: monta blindagem enquanto os outros discutem emissões. 🇮🇪 Irlanda: a centralina está registada num paraíso fiscal.
🇪🇺 Bruxelas: o carro está a arder, mas exige inspeção às emissões.
E o BCE? Aumenta o preço do combustível e recomenda condução económica.
Destino: Eurozuela. GPS: “A recalcular rota desde 2008…”
d33p 🐺 retweeted
True poverty is being superrich but having to drive a car with bulletproof glass
d33p 🐺 retweeted
🇧🇷Cenário de hoje: 🇧🇷
Flávio Bolsonaro 50.6% (-0.6pp)
Lula da Silva 49.4% (+0.6pp).
Não sei o que se passa, mas o momentum de Flávio está um desastre completo.
As pesquisas também mostram recuperação de Lula da Silva.
Não há margem para manter os valores de avanço de Flávio.
d33p 🐺 retweeted
First look @CoinPoker_OFF's new default heads up rake: >20 bb/100 🤯
5% rake with 3 bb cap at NL1K-NL5K, which = 18 bb/100 in my calculator, but they are also adding rake preflop for 3bet+ pots (another ~3 bb/100 rake) and increasing the ante
This excludes jackpot / splash pot fees!
d33p 🐺 retweeted
BREAKING: Google announces a major breakthrough in quantum computing, achieving 99.99% accuracy in a key quantum operation.
d33p 🐺 retweeted
THE BATTLE FOR EUROPE
Lufthansa just won TAP Air Portugal, and I think it’s the worst-run of Europe’s three big airline groups. Portugal picked its all-cash offer over Air France-KLM’s, less than two years after Lufthansa bought into Rome’s ITA.
Everyone wanted TAP because Lisbon is Europe's door to Brazil. TAP flies to 15 Brazilian cities, and most of them have no other nonstop to Europe. IAG walked away in April because Portugal is only selling 44.9%.
Lufthansa has collected more flag carriers than anyone: Swiss, Austrian, Brussels, ITA, and now TAP. IAG has BA, Iberia, Aer Lingus, and Vueling. Air France-KLM is still Air France and KLM, plus a stake in SAS.
Lufthansa is the biggest group, but IAG is by far the most profitable. It made €5 billion of operating profit last year, about 2.5 times what Lufthansa or Air France-KLM made.
Lufthansa's problem is Lufthansa. Swiss made a 9.3% margin, and Lufthansa's own airline made 0.9%. The fleet is a mess: 13 widebody types, 747-400s and A340s still flying, and new 787s that flew for six months with only 4 of 28 business seats sellable. I think it has underinvested in Austrian and Brussels too, and I hope it doesn't do the same to ITA.
IAG is ruthless, and it pays. BA cut up to 12,000 jobs in 2020 and only started its £7 billion plan to fix the product in 2024. Iberia is the star, with a 16% margin and some of Europe's most punctual flights.
Air France-KLM is the group I'd rather fly. Ben Smith took over in 2018 in the middle of strikes and rebuilt the product, with new La Première suites, new business seats, and free Starlink Wi-Fi. The weak spot is money: investors value the group at about $3 billion, against $26 billion for IAG.
I think Lufthansa wins these auctions because it can pay cash, and I don't think it's because it runs airlines well. Now it has to fix TAP while it's still fixing Lufthansa.
ALT Map of Europe titled Lufthansa just added Portugal. Countries are shaded by airline group, darker where the group owns the flag carrier and lighter for minority stakes. Lufthansa Group: Germany (Lufthansa, Frankfurt and Munich), Switzerland (SWISS), Austria (Austrian), Belgium (Brussels Airlines), Italy (ITA, 41%), and Portugal (TAP, 44.9%). IAG: UK (British Airways), Ireland (Aer Lingus), Spain (Iberia and Vueling). Air France-KLM: France (Air France), Netherlands (KLM), and Scandinavia (SAS, 19.9%).
ALT Map of TAP Air Portugal's flights from Lisbon to 15 Brazilian cities this winter, with a table of weekly flights and aircraft: Sao Paulo 18 (A330neo), Rio de Janeiro 12 (A330neo), Recife 10 (A330, A321LR), Fortaleza 9 (A330, A321LR), Belo Horizonte 7 (A330), Natal 7 (A321LR), Salvador 7 (A330), Belem 6 (A321LR), Brasilia 6 (A330neo), Curitiba 3 (A330, new), Florianopolis 3 (A330), Maceio 3 via Natal (A321LR), Manaus 3 via Belem (A321LR), Porto Alegre 3 (A330neo), Sao Luis 2 (A321LR, new).
ALT Timeline of how each group was built. Lufthansa Group: SWISS 2005, Austrian 2009, Brussels 2017, ITA 41% in 2025, TAP 44.9% won in 2026. IAG: British Airways and Iberia 2011, Vueling 2013, Aer Lingus 2015; greyed out, Air Europa dropped in 2024 and TAP withdrawn in 2026. Air France-KLM: Air France and KLM 2004, SAS 19.9% in 2024; greyed out, TAP lost in 2026.
ALT Bar chart of 2025 revenue and operating profit. Lufthansa Group: 39.6 billion euros revenue, 2.0 billion profit, 4.9% margin. IAG: 33.2 billion revenue, 5.0 billion profit, 15.1% margin. Air France-KLM: 33.0 billion revenue, 2.0 billion profit, 6.1% margin. Each group's headline operating measure.
d33p 🐺 retweeted
72% chance Google leads the AI race at month's end.
poly.market/qvsalpf
d33p 🐺 retweeted
Bildiğim Tek Birşey Var.
KURT ASLA UNUTMAZ..
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