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Educational Thread Overview 📚
Below, you can find all my educational threads about subjects like Profit Taking, Risk Management and others. 👇
$BTC With how this is shaping up, I am expecting volatility to remain high and for a decision to be made soon.
Locally, $75K & $77K are the levels to watch. I do believe a break of either of those, could accelerate quickly and make for another ~5% move.
There isn't much stopping the move in either direction until that ~$72K-$73K zone and above it would be back to ~$80K.
$ETH Sitting right at its bull market support band. These past few candles have been trying to hold on to the retest.
ETH first broke below the bull market support band back in October 2025, after which it rejected on all its tests.
August was when ETH finally broke above in violent fashion, now the bulls need to hold on to it as support to create a higher low. Eyes on the closes.
$ETH Nasty rejection here too. But on the high timeframe the levels that matter are $2.1K & $2.8K.
Zooming out is your best friend in these situations.
$BTC Is about to close its 5th consecutive weekly candle in the red.
The last time we hit 5+ was this February when it topped at 6.
The only other time before that was all the way in 2022 when we saw 9 consecutive red weekly candles.
So to see 5 in a row is quite a rare sighting. The other two streaks happened in middle of a bear market and when price traded below the bull market support band in a bearish structure.
Next week is going to be interesting as I suspect we will get a resolution on this either way. Eyes on the weekly closes.
$BTC After the volatile mid-week, price has been sideways for the past two days.
This makes it so there's a lot of positions that have built up on both sides.
Decent chance there will be a liquidity grab for both sides at some point.
Demand for privacy and security grows every day. Across the world, and especially in crypto.
$AF lets you send crypto to a @ name, and every transfer lands on a one-time stealth address that only the sender and receiver can see.
They’re also adding quantum-resistant signing that protects your wallet without requiring a new address.
Privacy and quantum security in one project. Two narratives the market keeps coming back which makes it interesting to me. I’ve invested in @Americanfort_io. Launching soon.
Our CEO @MehowHacks spoke to @Forbes on what the $6.3B Binance hack means for banks heading into stablecoin issuance under the GENIUS Act.
The short version: the attackers didn’t break code. They compromised three people.
At a bank there are no cryptographic proofs at all, only more people in the way. The fix isn’t more approvals but a system where withdrawals can’t happen unless the user authorises them, and nobody can withdraw what they can’t prove they deposited.
That’s what we’ve built. Full piece ↓
The market can stay boring for much longer than most traders can stay patient.
That’s usually where accounts get chipped away. Not in the volatile periods, but in the quiet ones.
Risk management is especially important because it can be easy to size up because volatility is low, only to take a lot of unnecessary losses in doing so.
$BTC Had been following roughly the same path as 2022/2023 for the past couple of months.
The banking crisis in 2023 caused the first big dip after the initial rally.
We just had some big events like the Binance hack & AI stocks taking a big hit. But the price action has been much more slow and orderly this time.
Anyways, figured I'd update again, was interesting to follow.
$BTC Has mirrored the 2023 price action extremely well.
I do still believe that if you were to see some bigger flush due to a headline or bond market breaking for example, that it would be an interesting spot to watch.
Will keep track on how the fractal evolves. Keep in mind, this is just a comparison. Different market, different times, but always interesting to compare similar price action.
$BTC Holding on to the $75.5K support after that massive flush which swept the September low.
Above, that $81K level has been important. Main level for the bulls to break to get the momentum back.
Survival first, profits second.
Every trader who’s been around for a few cycles eventually learns it in that order.
$BTC Now with its largest drawdown since the $58K to $87K rally.
I don't have to tell you that corrections like these are normal for Bitcoin. Volatility in general has actually already been much lower than prior years.
But for the high timeframe structure to have some proper bullish momentum again, you'd need to see a break back above $80K.
Below this $73K-$76K zone is the big high timeframe support region to watch.
The Total Altcoin Market Cap is now sitting back at the Daily 200MA and .618 fibonacci retracement level.
It has been grinding lower since topping out in September where every rally has been sold off quickly.
Key area here to watch. If it can retake the red zone, which has been acting as a strong support/resistance level for years, that is the sign of strength the bulls wants.
If this sees no reaction here and just grinds lower then that is a sign of weakness.
Fire sale being bought up today. Likely lots of short covering too.
Going to be an interesting trading day today into the weekend.
I've not been a fan of the bottleneck AI companies as they were already clearly seeing capital rotating from them into the rest of the market since the Summer.
But this is a crazy sell off, even in the new political picture we're in now.
Not sure where these bottom out but NVDA is now trading at a 13x forward P/E (or 19 for 2027) which is crazy low even if you think the datacenter build out slows down drastically. Obviously you could get some P/E compression if these the earnings really slow down but still, a lot of froth was already taken out of them.
Anyways, my long term stock holdings are mostly in ETFs with some individual names on the side like $AMZN, $META etc. These are multi year holds so nothing changes there.
But I will be closely looking at how this (primarily) AI bottleneck company sell off continues and might start shopping at some point.
Many of these were hot & overextended this year, yes. But still very bullish AI in general for the next decade ahead. So if you get some fire sale discounts it's always good to watch closely.
NFA, just sharing my thoughts on the market.
$ETH Currently caught in between some big levels.
Right on the big .618 Fibonacci retracement level and the Daily 200MA.
But the Daily 200EMA and $2350 horizontal area have been causing trouble.
You'd want to see a move back above $2350 for a proper sign of strength that the bullish momentum is back. Below, that ~$2150 level is key otherwise this just keeps bleeding lower and starts giving back a lot of that breakout candle.
Would recommend to play this level by level to not get chopped up in the middle.
There's the relief bounce.
$BTC and crypto lagging behind for now.
Big question will be of course, did the likes of $NVDA etc set a bottom here on the back of all the forced selling and liquidations? Or is it just a short covering bounce.
I do believe as my friend @0xmock also mentioned that people underestimate how well these big tech corporations can handle different macro/political environments.
We also know politicians generally underdeliver massively on their promises once they are elected.
So all the fear that is in the market now with the "Anti AI/Datacenter" narrative is likely at least somewhat inflated.
I've not been a fan of the bottleneck AI companies as they were already clearly seeing capital rotating from them into the rest of the market since the Summer.
But this is a crazy sell off, even in the new political picture we're in now.
Not sure where these bottom out but NVDA is now trading at a 13x forward P/E (or 19 for 2027) which is crazy low even if you think the datacenter build out slows down drastically. Obviously you could get some P/E compression if these the earnings really slow down but still, a lot of froth was already taken out of them.
Anyways, my long term stock holdings are mostly in ETFs with some individual names on the side like $AMZN, $META etc. These are multi year holds so nothing changes there.
But I will be closely looking at how this (primarily) AI bottleneck company sell off continues and might start shopping at some point.
Many of these were hot & overextended this year, yes. But still very bullish AI in general for the next decade ahead. So if you get some fire sale discounts it's always good to watch closely.
NFA, just sharing my thoughts on the market.
$ENA One of those coins that is very sensitive to momentum.
During up trends, it tends to outperform. During down trends, it underperforms. Very momentum heavy coin.
With that said, I initially caught a nice spot bag move on this. I bought somewhere around ~$0.085 in the summer and sold it slightly early in that circle around $0.22. Good trade nonetheless.
Since then I been patiently waiting for a sizeable correction to get back in this. I think we are now at that zone where this gets interesting to me again. Below $0.14, which was the previous range high, I have no interest in touching it anymore. But between $0.14-$0.16 I do see this as a solid value zone for ENA as a longer term spot bag. Wicks below into the Daily 200MA would still be ok, but I want to see the daily closes maintain above the $0.14 level.
I will say that it is perfectly fine to wait to buy these kind of coins after the momentum turns, instead of knife catching. You would miss some initial of the move but have a smaller chance of getting caught as the down trend continues. Could even wait for some low timeframe market structure flip to bullish again before considering any buys at all. That is usually when I buy into new spot bags.
Fact is, the market as it is now is still very sketchy, BTC at a big support and we just had a massive down day. So for me the plan is to just start slowly scaling in and try to get as low a cost basis as possible. Then sit it out for another 3-6 months as hopefully the market creates a higher low and rallies from there.
On perps I would not easily be able to do this personally as the swings you'd have to endure in between are pretty tough and it is easy to get wicked out on your stop loss for example.
Just sharing some thoughts. Keep an eye on this region.
Large volatility days come with a lot of emotions.
Things always seem and feel worse than they are. This is usually clear just days or weeks later.
Especially when zooming out on charts the moves are much less extreme than when you’re experiencing them live during the day.
With that said, it is good to take it slow, don't try to make back losses by doing dumb things and just focus on the larger timeframe ahead.
Good luck out there friends. We've battled worse storms 🤝
$BTC Technically we're still at a decent price on the weekly, it is the same place as yesterday after all.
But the low timeframe looks horrendous right now with those two daily candles, we can agree on that.
This is the area where bulls need to make a stand. The weekly candle close is important to watch.
Technically here all the way down to $73K is high timeframe support. Lose that and the high timeframe starts looking iffy.
But one level at a time.
I've not been a fan of the bottleneck AI companies as they were already clearly seeing capital rotating from them into the rest of the market since the Summer.
But this is a crazy sell off, even in the new political picture we're in now.
Not sure where these bottom out but NVDA is now trading at a 13x forward P/E (or 19 for 2027) which is crazy low even if you think the datacenter build out slows down drastically. Obviously you could get some P/E compression if these the earnings really slow down but still, a lot of froth was already taken out of them.
Anyways, my long term stock holdings are mostly in ETFs with some individual names on the side like $AMZN, $META etc. These are multi year holds so nothing changes there.
But I will be closely looking at how this (primarily) AI bottleneck company sell off continues and might start shopping at some point.
Many of these were hot & overextended this year, yes. But still very bullish AI in general for the next decade ahead. So if you get some fire sale discounts it's always good to watch closely.
NFA, just sharing my thoughts on the market.
