📈 FT Independent Trader & Investor | Quantitative Methods | Founder of Algo Succession concepts.
The Moon
Joined August 2022
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5% = done ✅
1. We’ve accomplished PB’s of 10.8%, 4.72%, 2.36%, 3.82%. Add them up. Annual average is ~26%. We’ve got ~5% left to go this year.
2. When this is accomplished, market will go on what I’m calling the “Denial Rally.” Your substack doomer boomer bros who can barely navigate TradingView will be in shambles.
3. Right now, if we end the year at the current rate for algo-succession, we will setup at max, a 10% S&P500 correction next year. Likely less. Which is nothing. Again, doomer boomers will be in shambles.
The market is more efficient than old street gives it credit for. And I can quantify it, I could show them and they’ll still be in denial. Don’t care. Results will speak for itself.
Anyway, let the doomer boomer substack bros live in their delusions. They have no idea when, nor how much markets will correct at any given time, nor the duration as such.
Quantify everything.
.exe "Denial Rally"
We’ve got about 10-11% in corrections left for this year for $SPY . Either one big correction, or two 5-6% corrections.
We don’t have quantitative exhaustion yet, so most likely we will end up going on a nice “denial rally” towards 776-826 EOY.
By then, everyone who’s bearish will transition from their “denial” stage of grief, towards acceptance. And at that point, bears will be bullish again.
My thesis is it’ll take 2 months (Sep 1) to get the quantitative data ready for quantitative exhaustion, leading to 10-11% in corrections heading into November. Once quantitative exhaustion is triggered, it takes about a month to complete the correction, and another month to recover at new ATH’s.
Until then, market will likely grind higher July and August. Monthly quantitative data will be ripe for correction conditions, and then we let it happen.
