The largest remaining fud for ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 is the looming unlocks
Vlad very clearly explains they are a non issue as
- There is no cliff. Most tokens get a huge 25% unlock on the 1st anniversary but LIT doesn't
- The unlocks are actually end of January not end of December as many thought
- They've spoken to the cap table and the majority are very long term investors that don't plan to sell
- For the small minority that want to sell, they already have large partners that want to allocate to LIT but can't because the current market isn't liquid enough. These large partners can simply buy out the vests from those that want to sell
Very good call, this was what we were looking for outside of the robinhood partnership and regulation stuff
note: dcf cap holds @Lighter_xyz
many of you have asked about unlocks
here is @vnovakovski discussing this on our 3Q investor update call
DCF GOD retweeted
Great research report on $GRASS published by @FalconXGlobal today.
In their base case analysis, they value Grass at $2.53 per token (249.7% above the current price) based on an average of crypto, big tech, and AI training data comps.
Looking just at major AI training data comps such as Scale AI, Surge AI, Mercor, Exa, Parallel, Firecrawl, and Tavily, $GRASS is valued at $3.69 (409.1% increase in price).
This all lines up very closely with my own internal model where I project fair value in the $4-5 range, driven by slightly higher long term projected revenue figures.
Definitely worth a read as @martin_gaspar1 does an awesome job laying out the business and growth opportunity.
Grass remains one of my two highest conviction AI tokens (along with $VVV). Great to see one of the top firms in digital assets also recognizing the strong setup here.
Not financial advice
Great article
TLDR: based on its revenues grass should trade at $1.86… based on its competitor’s valuations it should trade at over $3
But, it’s at $0.7 because it’s a equity like crypto token and not a high fomo exclusive sv raise only a few people can get in on
Higher
Note: dcf cap holds solana:Grass7B4RdKfBCjTKgSqnXkqjwiGvQyFbuSCUJr3XXjs
DCF GOD retweeted
Over the last 30 days, Derive has remained over 90% of the onchain options market. In that same time frame, we’ve done about 5% of Deribit’s options volumes, up from 0.1% a year ago.
It’s difficult to build momentum in this category because of the uniquely strong network effects around options markets. Users and market makers hold positions and collateral on exchange for the duration of an option, often many months. The difficulty and cost of integration are a liquidity provider is an order of magnitude higher than perps. Options markets are also the last vertical to mature in any asset class.
Onchain has finally broken the dam - and Derive, alongside all of our builders and partners, has a chance to redefine the options category, first in crypto, and then beyond.
The tailwinds are enormous, and still underappreciated by most people I speak with.
1. Bringing options liquidity onchain unlocks more functionality than any other vertical: programmable, composable building blocks for precise, tailored yield generation, hedging, and speculative trades. One click hedges embedded in every brokerage and fintech, yield generation strategies with verifiable backtests and transparent risk, on any asset, new social trading experiences built using the kinds of trades only options can support.
2. AI for UX: the biggest barrier to entry to trading options is understanding. 2026 has seen a step function change in how models reason about options. This has yet to filter through to UX, but is coming. People shouldn’t trade options if they don’t understand them. But - given they want to express an opinion about the market - they should be able to find the best way to translate that into a trade. Options are often the best way to do so.
3. AI for agentic trading: options give you thousands of ways to express a view across strikes, expiries and structures. For many traders this is overwhelming, but for agents, it’s a much more useful set of choices. My wager is that agents will prefer specificity and precision when executing trades: not just whether an asset goes up or down, but how far, by when, and with how much risk. Options are the answer.
These tailwinds are strengthening just as our liquidity hits an inflection point. Big integrations take time to come to fruition, but we’re seeing the results month by month, with many more in the pipeline. At the same time, we’ve completed our biggest infrastructure upgrade in 3 years, taking what was already a leading onchain product into what I believe is the best options infrastructure anywhere.
We have so much more work to do, and will be constantly taking feedback, iterating on the product, and ensuring that every dollar of liquidity that onboards to Derive is earned. But we really are only at the dawn of the last major trading vertical to move onchain, and in my opinion, it will be the largest.
DCF GOD retweeted
New Delphi Podcast with Andrej Radonjic @0xdrej, founder of Grass
To a website, Grass looks like normal users browsing. Behind it is millions of opted in residential nodes and a data platform that has delivered exabytes of web data to the frontier labs
We get into how AI flipped the hard part of search upside down. The index used to be the moat, and crawling was free. Now AI tooling makes the index cheap, while AI crawlers have pushed the web into blocking everything. The hard part is getting the page at all
Training data is already a profitable business for Grass with most of the top labs and multiple Mag 7 companies as customers. Crawling for that data also means mapping the entire internet, which is what puts Grass in a position to build search on top of it. Contents API is live, Search is next, and multimodal grounding follows
00:00 Intro
00:43 From Nuclear Physics to Web Scraping
03:38 The Pandemic Signal Everyone Missed
07:31 The Smart TV Proxy Scandal
09:10 Why the Internet Is Blocking AI
11:56 Training Data vs Live Data
16:05 Mapping the Entire Internet
18:03 Delivering Exabytes to AI Labs
21:48 What AI Labs Really Pay For
24:43 How Robots Learn From Web Video
33:02 When Labs Change Direction
35:57 One API Call for Any Website
41:58 AI Flipped Search Upside Down
47:03 Can the Network Keep Up?
49:52 The Defense Tech of AI Data
52:58 Why Data Is the Alpha
57:08 Why AI Labs Won’t Buy Slop
59:17 The Metric That Matters Most
01:02:35 The $100 Billion Data Market
01:05:07 Who Actually Owns Grass
01:08:18 What a Real Moat Looks Like
01:13:16 What Happens Next
Disclosure. Delphi Ventures holds $GRASS
Full episode
Holy sweet mother of revenue
Note: dcf cap holds solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp
Our biggest day yet: $24.3M in gross revenue in 24 hours.
123,425 packs opened... and counting.
Thank you to everyone opening packs with us and making this a record day.
DCF GOD retweeted
And here is onchain revenues, it really is going to be as simple as Buying and Holding good coins, do not overthink this
DCF GOD retweeted
$GRASS is going to be so much bigger than people realize. Most market participants don't even know they have expanded from pre-training to inference
You can just go to LCR.net and give your agents access to a fleet of 10s of thousands of browsers that have the ability to route requests through millions of real residential IP addresses.
Grass is in the process of ingesting over a trillion webpages
They will clone the internet and allow agents to access the web without being blocked by cloudflare
It’s real technology that is performing better than their multi b valuation competitors
Note: dcf cap holds solana:Grass7B4RdKfBCjTKgSqnXkqjwiGvQyFbuSCUJr3XXjs
You can just go to LCR.net and give your agents access to a fleet of 10s of thousands of browsers that have the ability to route requests through millions of real residential IP addresses.
DCF GOD retweeted
Median purchase on ether.fi cards: $12.19. Average: $80.22. That gap is how the billion got built. 62% of purchases were under $20, while the 1% of purchases over $1,000 carried half the dollars.
The small daily swipes are what make it someone's main card, and the big ones show people trust it with real money. You need both to go from 345 days for the first $100M to 22 days for the last one
xitter.cf/ether_fi/status/211154…
$1 BILLION spent!
199 countries, 131 currencies, and 12.6M+ purchases
Some things ether․fi cardholders bought along the way:
> 42,939 Starbucks orders
> 773,271 taxi rides
> 122,788 hotel stays
More fun stats here: ether.fi/one-billion
DCF GOD retweeted
we just ordered $8 million of new cards for @TiltRips
First $1 million is uploaded on the site now.
Enjoy the new chases!!
Senor
The first 100m took a year the last 100m took a month
Ethfi just broke $1b spent on their cards and they continue to grow revenue week / week consistently
This will soon be the largest crypto card and it’s still sub 0.7b fdv
Note: dcf cap holds $ETHFI
$1 BILLION spent!
199 countries, 131 currencies, and 12.6M+ purchases
Some things ether․fi cardholders bought along the way:
> 42,939 Starbucks orders
> 773,271 taxi rides
> 122,788 hotel stays
More fun stats here: ether.fi/one-billion
Great move - @senortilt has been killing it in the tcg space
Excited for this pivot
Note: dcf cap seeded monkeytilt
🚨Goodbye MonkeyTilt, Hello Tilt Rips🚨
After 6-8 months of planning, the executive team and I at Tilt have decided to focus FULLY on collectibles and wind down/spin-off/sell all non-core products in the business (casino, sportsbook, and a couple smaller divisions). The world does not need another crypto casino but it’s going to want the innovation we plan to bring to the collectibles space.
We made this decision with the support of our board, our team, our investors and our community. We made sure all day 1 employees from years ago and day 1 investors that had equity in Monkeytilt retain that same equity in our collectibles endeavors. The enterprise value of this has already exceeded everything we’ve built with Monkeytilt. But more importantly, the team is happier than it’s ever been. We all feel like kids again, building stuff that speaks to our souls and connects us with our children, our families and our communities in a deeper way.
I will write a much longer tweet later about mine and the team’s journey building everything that led to this, the speed bumps along the way, the multiple and inevitable pivots in any founder journey and how grateful everyone is to have been a part of this ongoing story.
My team is going to bring everything that makes us great product builders, gamers, developers and risk takers and fully invest that energy into bringing fresh and exciting product into the collectibles space. We cannot afford to have a minute of our bandwidth taken away from what we are doing. It is also the case that to fully explore the opportunities available to us in collectibles, we needed to divest of any non-core products that could interfere with liquidity options and upside for our investors and employees.
Stay tuned. We are just getting started.
Señor
DCF GOD retweeted
Adding to this, a lot of people missed in the recent Jeff interview that he explicitly advocates for the HIP4 style approach for on chain options because it makes both parties pre-fund their obligations. Binaries are always fixed win/loss by nature, and if you stack them they just function as call/put spreads.
This is a necessity to be compatible with the existing risk engine, not an intentional design decision. This all but confirms that native vanilla options are not coming any time soon for Hyperliquid, otherwise he wouldn't be leaning into this approach.
Perps first platforms are strapping on binaries as an afterthought because it's easy, but you're also seeing the adoption, or rather lack thereof, they are receiving.
People want not just path independence, but also the unbounded convexity and ability to long vol and tail events that only vanillas can provide.
@DeriveXYZ is purpose built for options. I'm shocked that people find it so hard to believe that the venue purpose built for options will have a strong moat given that Deribit has survived the competition from Binance, OKX, and Bybit after all these years.
The @Lighter_xyz announcement today is bullish $DRV, not bearish. If vanilla options were so easy to add, they'd have done it already rather than adding binaries, which nobody really wants.
I'm bullish $LIT here too but binary options are a misnomer and nothingburger. They'll probably generate <$10,000 revenue between now and EOY.
Because Binary options resolve to a fixed YES // NO typically at $1, the payoff is capped. So there's capped upside & less/different convexity. Vega, Gamma, & the other greeks also work differently for Binaries compared to Vanilla options (Derive)
All of this pretty much makes Binaries an inferior product. The pay-offs aren't as good, they're not as capital efficient for hedging, there's not really a concept of vol buying/selling, and you cannot construct as mature expressions of the market as you can with vanilla options
I think this alone explains a lot of the challenges we've seen in HIP-4 adoption (and challenges I expect lighter to have unless they incentivize these markets heavily). It is the case that perps are far simpler than options and it's easier to bootstrap liquidity, therefore they've had strong product market fit in crypto
HOWEVER, binaries options sit in a weird place. You still have the liquidity problems of vanilla options (you have to support liquidity at many strikes at many expiries) but an overall weaker payoff structure. This disincentives the creation of deep liquidity. It's just kinda not worth it for the more pro-tail to institutional type of traders who use options for what their actually intended for (mature expressions of path & volatility +plus some yield strategies). TLDR: Binaries are like an ugly middle child
The reason Hyperliquid & Lighter are starting with Binary options before moving to Vanilla options (if ever) is that the fact they resolve to the fixed $1 share amount, means they slot in easier into the existing risk & margin engines of the protocols. If you want to support true options then you need a risk engine built specifically with the convexity of options in mind rather than just linear returns like perps. I'm not an expert but everything I have learned so far & the experts I've talked to, are all adamant this would be a fundamental rewrite of risk engines and margining for Hyperliquid & Lighter - something I imagine both are reluctant to do, especially when they can still make a gazillion dollars by winning perps
^^ This also explains some of Crypto's centralized market structure as well. Binance & OKX have the most perps volume by a large margin, you'd expect them to also be leading in options but they aren't. The centralized options leaders are two entirely different exchanges Deribit and ByBit. Again, this is because market structure & risk engines are just a different thing for options. So we've seen the leaders in that space keep their lead despite well funded and talented competition. I don't think it's unfounded to believe that at least for the foreseeable future, Derive is in a position to keep it's lead and go toe-to-toe with the leading perps dexes at least in the domain of options.
TLDR: same reason I don't see Derive being competition to HL or LIT perps (it's just a complimentary part of their product offering) - I don't see HL or LIT being competition to Derive options (it's just a complimentary part of their product offering
All of this re-affirms why I'm so bullish on Derive ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be as they STILL have 90%+ of market share for onchain options premium (what people are actually willing to pay to use the product).
Love the look of the new roadster
But for the sake of actually using it… would want fsd, the convertible roof, back seats, and at least a bit of frunk/trunk space
Still keeping the pre order from last bull market tho 😂
The only thing I’ve ever seen him completely fail and give up on is working within government
The budget and government spending is so impossible to change it’s easier to make cars fly
