University of Illinois research lab where stats meet baseball history. Creators of peer-reviewed era-adjusted WAR. Featured in NYT. Babe Ruth is not the GOAT.
Joined May 2025
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The stats you use to compare baseball players across eras are not era-adjusted, even if they say they are.
WAR, OPS+, ERA+, etc do not account for changes to the talent pool and competition.
A 10-WAR season in 1925 is treated as identical to a 10-WAR season in 2025. It is not.
How good was Yordan Alvarez's bat in 2026?
Babe Ruth put up 255 OPS+ in 1920. That's his best season and it is well ahead of Alvarez's 190.
Now look at the leaderboards:
-Alvarez led 2nd place by 34 OPS+
-Ruth led 2nd place in the NL/AL* by 70 OPS+
Ruth's advantage was nearly double.
But look closer:
The OPS+ gap between 2nd and 10th was a paltry 13 points in 2026. It was greater than double that in 1920!
That is important. It means that the distribution of achievement was heavier tailed in 1920. Thus, large outliers were more common then.
All this is before you consider that the talent pool was much smaller in 1921.
So how good was Alvarez's bat in 2026?
@yordanknowball @mlb_agent @EvolvSportsMgmt
Major Update:
Era-adjusted baseball stats have been compiled for the 2026 season.
There are going to be some major results!
Hint: how good do you think PCA and Yordan Alvarez's seasons will rank?
Keep in mind that the distance from 2nd place has an effect on how our stats are calculated (see attached screenshots).
Stay tuned for our release after the World Series.
Current stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
How good was PCA in 2026?
Babe Ruth put up 14.1 WAR in 1923. That's his best season and it is well ahead of PCA's 9.8.
Now look at the leaderboards:
PCA leads 2nd place by 2.5 WAR
Ruth leads 2nd place by 4.8 WAR
That is still an advantage for Ruth.
But look closer:
The WAR gap between 2nd and 10th was 1.5 in 2026. It was 3.7 in 1923! That is important. It means that the distribution of achievement is heavy tailed, supporting the idea that outlying performance was systematically more likely in 1923.
Tail behavior at the extreme end of performance influences how our stats are computed for each season's stat leaders.
All this is before you consider that the talent pool was much smaller in 1923.
So how good was PCA in 2026?
Major Update:
Era-adjusted baseball stats have been compiled for the 2026 season.
There are going to be some major results!
Hint: how good do you think PCA and Yordan Alvarez's seasons will rank?
Keep in mind that the distance from 2nd place has an effect on how our stats are calculated (see attached screenshots).
Stay tuned for our release after the World Series.
Current stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
Major Update:
Era-adjusted baseball stats have been compiled for the 2026 season.
There are going to be some major results!
Hint: how good do you think PCA and Yordan Alvarez's seasons will rank?
Keep in mind that the distance from 2nd place has an effect on how our stats are calculated (see attached screenshots).
Stay tuned for our release after the World Series.
Current stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
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In case you missed it, @sabr has a call for abstracts out for next year's SABR Analytics Conference!
You can learn more here: sabr.org/latest/submit-your-…
Agreed!
Also worth noting that Kiner was one of the most prolific home run hitters ever!
He ranks 8th in home run rate (min 5000 PAs) when you adjust for talent pool, competitive environment, and stadium.
He's ahead of Bonds, Schwarber, Killebrew, Foxx, Greenberg, Gehrig and many others!
You can see era-adjusted stats and content here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
Not enough people talk about Ralph Kiner
• .279/.398/.548 (.946 OPS), 149 OPS+
• 6x AS, 7x NL HR Champ (led MLB 6x)
• Unprecedented 7 straight HR titles
• (Even George Ruth never did that)
• Reached 40 HR 5x & 100 RBI 6x
• But he only played 10 seasons!
• Back injury forced retirement
• Thrice led the league in walks
• Also thrice in SLG, OPS, OPS+
• Scored 100+ runs 6x in 7 years
• 8 walk-off HR, 2 in extra innings
• Career 41 HR & 112 RBI per 162 G
• Most HR ever at Forbes Field (175)
• Appeared on FIFTEEN HOF ballots
• Served as a Navy pilot during WWII
• (Enlisted the day after Pearl Harbor)
• Second cousin twice removed of IKF
• A most beloved figure in Mets history
• Top BR Similarity Score: David Justice
• Mets broadcaster from 1962 thru 2013
• Hosted "Kiner's Korner" postgame show
• A most genuine and charming gentleman
• Was a legend for his on-air malapropisms
• Like Yogi, was extremely fun and quotable
• Most HR through first 8 MLB seasons (329)
• Went on a date with Elizabeth Taylor in 1949
• (Set up by Bing Crosby, then a Pirates owner)
• Ralph Kiner is the only player in MLB history to lead the league in home runs in 7 consecutive seasons, doing so in the first 7 years of his big league career; Babe Ruth’s 12 home run titles are the most ever, but his longest unbroken streak of years leading the league was 6.
Love Willie! His place is well deserved among The Beloveds.
But he’s also a what if?
Using era-adjusted stats we can estimate what Stargell’s career would look like on an even playing field.
With Forbes Field, the extending pitching era of 1962-1968, and talent pool accounted for, Stargell’s standing jumps dramatically:
- 10th in home runs, easily clearing 500.
- 6th in home run rate.
- 21st in OPS.
As always, you can see era-adjusted stats and leader boards here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
@Datadagoat made an excellent video about Willie Stargell through the lens of era-adjusted stats
m.youtube.com/watch?v=HGljho…
Cool to see Carl Yaz here!
He seems really under appreciated for a guy with two top-10 seasons by era-adjusted WAR.
Even when you don’t adjust for eras, his 1967 season is the best non-Ruth season by bWAR.
Don’t like WAR? In 1967 Yaz won a triple crown, hit .400 with 3 HR in the World Series, and only grounded into 5 double plays all year.
Era-adjusted stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
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I think the “era-adjusted” terminology used for WAR, wrc+, ERA+, etc. has made it very easy to NOT understand it.
One of my favorite baseball cards came in the mail today: David Cone’s 1997 Metal Universe card, complete with a literal cannon arm.
I never had this card as a kid. Always wanted one. Now I do!
And with the Yankees down 2–0 to the Rays, I am reminded that Cone won 5 World Series rings (4 with the Yankees) and my frustration over his first-ballot HOF rejection has been rejuvenated.
I didn’t understand it then. I understand it even less now.
Cone finished with 61.6 WAR, a 194–126 record, 3.46 ERA (121 ERA+), and 2,668 strikeouts. He led his league in K/9 four straight years. He won a Cy Young award.
He also did awesome things likes throw a perfect game and pitch an immaculate inning!
And his case only gets stronger when you use era-adjusted metrics that account for changes in the talent pool and competitive environment.
By era-adjusted JAWS, Cone ranks 43rd among pitchers, ahead of HOFers Jim Bunning, Dennis Eckersley, Don Drysdale, Kid Nichols, and Sandy Koufax, and teammate Andy Pettitte.
He barely trails John Smoltz, who accumulated his totals over 500+ more innings. On a rate eWAR basis, Cone was better. Smoltz is in the HOF. And Cone fell off the ballot after one year.
Maybe it is the awesomeness of the Metal Universe card talking, but give me Cone.
See era-adjusted stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
@dcone36
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Making one final push for applications to the Summer Analyst position. This is a chance to work in a major league front office and develop quantitative/predictive methods in a setting where the work can directly impact decisions.
Also open to Master’s and PhD students!
