阳阳 retweeted
开店两周破 2000 单！趁着今天把 Muse 310亿成品号干到 ¥32.5、Gemini 18个月干到 ¥8.2，给推上的兄弟们发波福利：
转+评随便留句话，抽 5 个兄弟直接送 MuseAI 50亿额度！🎁
顺便给找号的兄弟交个底——店里所有标价均为真现货秒发：
✅ Muse 310亿独享成品号 ¥32.5（付款即发，不搞预售排队，满额不缩水）
✅ Muse 手工代刷 ¥2.5
✅ Gemini 18个月 Pro ¥8.2
✅ GPT Plus / Claude / Grok 全系稳定现货
有问题随时找我。
自用看置顶进店，想长期分销赚钱的代理直接私信我对接 🤝
3D鹈鹕骑车SVG服不服🤣
Gemini 4 Argon is here.
To show you what it can do, here are 5 builds from our team 🧵 ↓ xitter.cf/fofrAI/status/21100430…
Karpathy大佬说的的漏斗图应该比较直观了（当然我没有具体数据，又懒得去找），不过窃以为它不是一条曲线，而是三把尺子的读数被画在了同一根轴上——暴露度、任务域、准入权限。第 1到第2层靠产品，2→3层靠"你手里有没有值得委托的大问题"，第3→4层不靠任何个人努力，靠门。 更该说的是：这条鸿沟不是"理解"的差，而是"可校验性"的差，所以它是个 U 形——底层无从下手，顶层无从复核，只有中间那 2000 万人还完整地在环里。 而他一句话带过的那个细节才是全部：环境混合由"收入潜力"驱动。所以漏斗的形状会跟着账单走，而不是跟着重要性走。管理层卡在第二层，不是因为他们保守，是因为他们的工作不在可被验证的那个子集里。 最后：能力和扩散第一次脱钩了。电力、互联网、手机，扩散即采用；这一次，能力在被算力和资本把守的核心垂直上升，扩散靠一个为别的目的设计的免费产品慢慢爬。这不是"还没到时候"，这是两件事同时在发生……
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
