Deer Point Macro

Inflationary pressures remain relatively broad across PCE components, with 53.3% registering year-over-year price increases above 3%, compared with just 20% experiencing inflation below 1%. The distribution suggests that disinflation remains uneven, with elevated price pressures extending beyond a narrow subset of categories. From a monetary policy perspective, persistent inflation breadth complicates the Fed’s path toward its 2% target, even as aggregate inflation moderates. Unless price pressures narrow more meaningfully across components, the breadth of inflation could limit the scope for additional policy easing and reinforce a more cautious approach to rate normalization.

U.S. Q3 GDP | Domestic Demand Remains Resilient Real GDP accelerated to 3.4% annualized in Q3, up from 2.2% in Q2, supported by resilient consumer spending, a sharp acceleration in private investment, and stronger federal expenditures. Consumption advanced 3.8%, with services growth reaching 4.1%, while private investment surged 19.4%, led by a 20.9% increase in equipment spending. However, the underlying composition was less uniformly positive, as residential investment contracted 3.3% and a 19.7% increase in imports, alongside declining exports, created a substantial drag from net trade.

PCE Forecast for tomorrow: In our PCE forecast, energy is driving the marginal acceleration, while core services are continuing to drive the underlying persistence. Air fares I believe will be a fairly large contribution this month in PCE as well. MoM: 0.52% YoY: 3.47%

The FOMC held rates steady at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 decision, with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25bp hike. The Committee upgraded its assessment of economic activity from “solid” to “strong” while reiterating concerns over persistent inflationary pressures. With markets pricing additional tightening into 2027, the OIS forward curve reflects a continued repricing of the expected policy path. The Fed's increasingly hawkish stance suggests inflation risks remain the primary concern, potentially at the expense of recognizing underlying slack developing in the labor market. This raises questions about whether the Committee is underestimating downside employment risks as it maintains a restrictive policy stance.

The single-B credit space is becoming increasingly interesting. Recent OAS widening does not appear confined to the most distressed bonds trading near 60 cents on the dollar, but is also evident across the 70+ and 80+ price cohorts. While some degree of spread comovement is expected, the broadening of widening across price cohorts suggests repricing is not exclusively concentrated in the most distressed segment of single-B credit.

Been flattening (5-day lookback)

CCC constituent spread change has resumed widening, median widening is 135bps. Potentially more of a normalization story, but definitely some potential distressed scenario out into the tails.

21 day realized vol 10y vs 1m10y

Skew has moved higher, as bonds rally notes and long bond have all held above zero. Only exception is TY. Prices hit the skids ahead of the CME open as a block buy of 5.5k FVZ at 104-14.5 helping to stall further lows. CTAs have been lined up to buy as yields have held support across the curve.

Ex-hyperscalers IG would be about 6bps tighter.

Recent swap spread and yield dynamics suggest MBS-related paying flows, potentially alongside futures hedging. However, with index-level MBS convexity near zero, further convexity-driven paying should be limited. The recent underperformance of 10s appears largely directional, amplified by MBS duration extension during the selloff. @AQ_MND @iBladesi thoughts from the MBS guys?

Swap Spreads Snap Tighter Swap spreads tighter across the curve beyond 2s, driven by directional receiving amid a tech-led equity selloff and Treasury rally. Elevated oil prices, however, continue to complicate the Fed outlook, leaving further tightening risk on the table. The move also appears to reflect an unwind of MBS convexity hedges as 10-year yields approach 5%. Previous pay-fixed swap positions and Treasury shorts are being reversed, reinforcing receiving flows and demand for intermediate-duration Treasuries.

France continues the sell-off in the curve, with 2 to 10 year rates rising 10bps to 14bps. Meltdown in French bonds coupled with swoon in tech stocks, further shown by an almost 4% dip in the Kospi has spurred a 7bps to almost 10bps rally in the red, green, and blue packs.

Swap spreads opening slightly tighter in a lag to pullback in treasuries, bigger impact on spreads has been from light IG supply. We are seeing unwinding of deal-tied long positions dominating the overall light action during overnight trading as expectations for a big AI-related issuance onslaught turning more cautious. The spread curve is tilted flatter, driven by the move up in money-market rates and SOFR futures dip. The below graph shows historic swap spread curve shows the curve from 2022 until today.