6th year of predictive signal hunting after 13 yrs of pro poker 10m+ online cash game hands and 10k+ hours in casino/private games
Joined June 2020
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deterrence retweeted
JUST IN: UC Berkeley math professor stops grading homework for correctness, saying widespread AI use has made it "pointless," and now awards credit simply for turning in assignments.
deterrence retweeted
Most surprising line in the S-1:
“Anthropic's revenue from Fortune 500 customers paying $100K+ a year averaged under 0.1% of those customers' total expenses in the September 2026 quarter. Over half the Fortune 500 is in that group.”
Absolutely wild given ~$75b in revenue.
deterrence retweeted
Microsoft is offering 39 weeks of salary, the 2 next stock vests and 6 months of cobra to up to 60.000 employees (~27% of their total workforce) in a effort to reduce expenses after AI productivity gains.
deterrence retweeted
This is the most serious 48 hours in cybersecurity history.
"Black October" they're calling it
It seems every *hour* there's a new incident, that in a typical year, would be one of the biggest incidents of the *entire year*
SUMMARY OF THE LAST 48 HOURS:
YEAR-LEVEL INCIDENTS (In a typical year, these would be among the biggest incidents of the year):
1. PHP2Shell: a hole in the software behind ~70% of websites. Governments took sites offline.
2. eMudhra: the master keys that prove websites are real were cracked. One was the number 4.
3. California: data on every public school student since 2023 stolen, including disability status
4. Railway: hackers stole customers' secret keys from a hosting platform used by millions of developers
5. Zeabur: 321,810 accounts breached. The company is shutting down.
6. LiteLLM: an AI tool downloaded 3.4 million times a day was poisoned with a password stealer
7. GitLab: a 10-out-of-10 severity hole in every version since 2014
8. Cairn: criminals used an AI hacking tool to break into 100+ companies
9. Ahold Delhaize: hackers knocked the owner of Food Lion and Stop & Shop offline
10. Onamae: malware planted on up to 26,739 customer servers in Japan
MONTH-LEVEL INCIDENTS (In a typical month, these would be among the biggest incidents):
11. Signal: a bug could leave your mic and camera on after you hang up
12. NGINX: 3 critical holes in software running ~1/3 of websites
13. HTTP/3: a single connection can crash 7 of the 10 web server types tested
14. Plex: hackers breaking into home media servers
15. SafePay ransomware: FBI warns it has hit 600+ critical infrastructure organizations
16. Palo Alto: ransomware gangs breaking in through company firewalls
17. Bullhorn: platform used by 10,000+ companies knocked offline
18. Medi-Cal: 970,000 patients' data stolen
19. WordPress: hackers stole a plugin maker's keys and used them to plant backdoors on websites
20. AOMEI: backup software's update server handed out a backdoor
21. Meta Muse: Meta's AI agent exposed users' personal and business secrets
22. Tor: 333 relays hijacked to steal logins
23. TiDB Cloud: database company's cloud breached
Also serious:
24. State Bank of India: India's biggest bank confirms a data breach
25. OVHcloud: hackers slipped a password stealer into a cloud company's official tool
26. Siemens: a software hole being used to spread malware
27. North Korea: state hackers launch a new attack campaign on South Korea
deterrence retweeted
Just bought some $ORR calls. I think market makers are not pricing in the ETF is now structurally improved. They found a way to have lots of small short positions. At launch David said they wouldn't have full edge until that was available, and now it is.
deterrence retweeted
How the new OpenAI intern looks at you when you say you've got an executive meeting about super intelligence technology
deterrence retweeted
If this is where we are heading back to then sign me up. The best software ever created, no table management, no HUDs, no throwable, no tools, just straight vibes.
The cards.. the sounds of the chips going into the pot. Rail heaven, RIP Doyle, 45 man SNGS, FTOPs Jerseys
deterrence retweeted
craziest net worth chart i've ever seen
deterrence retweeted
Actually, events priced at 20% on Polymarket tend to happen around 20% of the time
deterrence retweeted
One of the most overlooked episodes (IMO) featuring @strassa2 youtube.com/watch?v=1ZDSzL2G…
deterrence retweeted
Stan Druckenmiller once made over a billion dollars in a single day. Over 30 years he averaged a little over 30% a year and never had a single losing year.
Ask him how, and he skips the big wins entirely. His secret is a pile of boring years, "I had a lot of 5 and 7s in there," and one rule about the number 50.
Asked why not losing mattered so much, he didn't talk about genius. "It's just mathematics. If you go down 50, you've got to go back 100 to get it back to even."
"If you make a bunch of 30s and then you lose 55 or 60%, you've got a long, long way back, and it's just the way the numbers work."
His rule for the other side of it: "when you really see the ball, swing really big, and when you don't see the ball, don't swing."
"It was a matter of never losing and then throwing some big numbers in there, maybe 10 times."
Most people do the opposite. They chase one huge year, then give it back. A 50% gain followed by a 50% loss doesn't leave you flat. It leaves you down 25%.
The fix is his: keep the average years small and safe, and only size up when the setup is obvious. And he admits part of it is temperament. "I'm a sore loser, I don't like to lose."
Even he breaks his own rule. "Full disclosure, I missed the dollar, probably the biggest miss of my career in currency trades." He saw it and didn't swing: "I just couldn't bring myself to own Joe Biden and Jerome Powell."
Save this and watch the two minutes before your next big swing.
deterrence retweeted
Stanley Druckenmiller, legendary macro investor and head of Duquesne Family Office, has a warning for young people chasing portfolio manager roles:
"I've seen it ruin people's lives who weren't built for trigger pulling."
Asked what advice he’d give someone entering the investment business, Druckenmiller started with motive:
"First of all, if they're going in it for the money, they should go elsewhere."
Druckenmiller's reasoning is competitive.
"There's too many people in the business like me that just love the game. And they're not going to be able to outwork the people that are passionate in the game. And it's not a fun game if you're losing. It's horrible."
On career progression, he separates two roles most people treat as one ladder:
"I would say an analyst skill set in our business is completely different than a portfolio manager skill set. Once in a while, you'll get an overlap."
His advice to analysts who love the research: think hard before assuming promotion is mandatory.
"I would be careful if they really love the analyst part, which is where we all start, of thinking they have to become a portfolio manager."
The upside of either path, in his words:
"I got in the business because I wanted intellectual stimulation, and you're going to get plenty in either one."
