Based on the 12 p.m. polling station-level data, Arab/Druze/Circassian localities are currently showing 24.1% turnout, about 10% behind overall turnout of 31.5%. So far, the only sub-group tracking closely with overall national turnout are the Negev Bedouin (31.3%) To be clear, this data reflects only the polling stations that are reporting updated data and excludes any Arab-Israeli votes from mixed cities and Jerusalem, which may be systematically different in terms of turnout. Still, 24.1% at this stage is notably higher than in 2022, when the aChord center estimated that Arab turnout was 17% only by 2 p.m. That election, turnout seemed to see a greater increase in the afternoon and evening. If that is the case here as well, we should expect a high-turnout Arab vote.

2 hours until the polls open for Israel's 26th Knesset elections. As always, hoping for a safe, secure, and high-turnout vote. A few links to track and accounts to follow: Initial results will be posted shortly after polls close 10 p.m. local: votes26.bechirot.gov.il/ Track voter turnout throughout the day: mapvotes.bechirot.gov.il/ • National turnout updates will be posted every two hours by the Central Elections Committee (CEC), covering up to the hour prior: 11 a.m. (for 10 a.m., and so on), 1 p.m., 3 p.m., 5 p.m., 7 p.m., 9 p.m., and 11 p.m. for final turnout. • Assuming all goes well, turnout by polling place will be published four times during the day: 10 a.m., 1 p.m., 5 p.m., and 9 p.m. Follow the CEC's official account for updates: @electionknesset And in no particular order, some very insightful accounts and professionals worth following to make sense of the day (feel free to add more in the comments, I am missing many excellent people): Live updates, monitoring, and analysis: • @israel_elects • @ElectionOwl • @harelcain • @votesafterdark • @hamalelections Modelers, polling analysts, and data whizzes: • @LittleMoiz • @dahliasc • @Michael_Gilead • @gevakraoz • @skarim_org • @SmilgaNir Reporters and journalists: • @amirettin (via Telegram: t.me/no_politix) • @Knesset99 • @mmagadli (via Telegram: t.me/magadli/) • @BiniAshcknasy • @DaphnaLiel • @AmitSegal • @shemeshmicha And, of course, visit @IsraelPolicy4m's Project 120 to learn the parties, the blocs, the electoral process, where the polls left off on Friday, and to see the results as they come in live with analysis: israelpolicyforum.org/onetwe… See everyone in a few hours.

Just how split are Israeli pollsters on the fate of small parties Reservists-Economy and Amcha Israel, bouncing around the 3.25% threshold? Based on the latest polls: - Both enter the Knesset: Channel 16 - Neither enter the Knesset: i24 and Channel 14 - Reservists-Economy enters, Amcha Israel falls below: Kan/Israel Hayom, Maariv/Walla, Channel 13, and Zman Israel - Amcha Israel enters, Reservists-Economy falls below: Channel 12 Five pollsters project Reservists-Economy entering and two project Amcha Israel entering. But at the threshold, tiny polling differences, whether signal or noise, are the difference between 0 and 4 seats. Neither party is in a safe place: when they cross the threshold, it is by inches.

Interesting -- Channel 16's final poll going into elections (absolutely enormous sample size to have a 1.5% margin of error) shows both Amcha Israel and Reservists-Economy passing the electoral threshold. Even with a smaller margin of error, that still doesn't place either cleanly over the threshold, however. A bad result for Likud with 17 seats, but again no pathway to 61 for either bloc. A mainstream opposition + Ra'am + Reservists-Economy coalition (no sure thing) would have only 59 seats according to this poll, requiring reliance on the Joint List or some other faction for to backstop the coalition.