Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓

Robotaxis are priced as if they’ll replace Uber, but even in a worst-case scenario, they’re positioned to capture only about a quarter of the business. Everything else is either delivery or markets where robotaxis can’t make the economics work. Start with the size of it. Delivery was $27.5 billion of that $58 billion, up 26% in a year. That is half the company, with zero robotaxi exposure. That leaves the Mobility half. Waymo and Tesla only run in a handful of US cities. The US accounts for about 46% of Uber's total revenue across every business it runs. And Uber operates in roughly 70 countries, so most of the company sits in markets and verticals no robotaxi touches. The third leg is the one nobody models. Uber's second and third biggest ride markets by trips are Brazil and India. The average fare there is $3 to $4. A robotaxi, in the best-case scenario, is a $30,000+ vehicle before you add insurance, cleaning, maintenance, depots and remote operators. You don't pay that back on a $3 ride. Those markets stay human-driven for a decade. Realistically, the only risk is limited-mobility business in the US. It represents about a quarter of their business. And even that assumes competitors win meaningful share, which is still years away. @andrewgordonmac, Uber’s COO, says SF bookings are still climbing even with Wamo operating there and Uber not deploying any AVs in that market. To me, investors are sleeping on how resilient Uber’s engine really is (look at the numbers below), while inflating the threat autonomous vehicles pose to its core. They’re also overlooking how difficult it is to enter a new market: securing approvals, building local operations, and standing up the infrastructure: fleet managers, depots, and everything in between. Uber’s dominance in most major U.S. cities is not going away by 2030. Robotaxis will expand, but they will not overturn Uber’s lead in the bulk of those markets. Uber is a well-led, well-funded company growing 20%+ with a 200M+ user base. This is the opportunity I would take every day. Follow me @m0xt_ for more takes and updates on Uber. You can also join Milk Road PRO to see my full portfolio. Try a trial for just $1: link.milkroad.com/Martin