donkeyDdevelops retweeted
“Create an image of what the world would look like if firefighters were in charge”
🤖 Made with AI
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Bro, just use the passkey. It’s in the magic link. It’s in your authenticator app. We sent you a code. It’s 2FA with your phone and yubikey. It’s face id. It’s sign in with SSO. Just enable touch id. Do you want to stay signed in? (we’ll log you out anyways)
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Good news, youngs:
A generous donor has funded a scholarship for Reconvene '26 (our real estate "un-conference", 10/6-10/8 in Santa Monica, CA).
If you are interested in attending and:
- In investment management, asset management, or property management
- Passionate about your craft & ambitious for your career
- Under 27 years old, and
- Able to get yourself to Santa Monica in October and figure out lodging
...please click on the link below and fill out the application.
airtable.com/appUb9T1K6ttHS1…
(Would appreciate your help in spreading the word.)
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
All my developer friends, repeat after me:
"I will not hire my GC to be my development manager or owner's rep"
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
12 Rules of Development:
1 - Never underestimate anyone (in either direction).
2 - During construction, paying more to get a material faster is the right call 90% of the time.
3 - Your GC shouldn’t be your owners rep.
4 - You won’t always have 100% all the information you need to make decisions.
5 - Getting into feuds with anyone (partners, neighbors, contractors, building dept, etc) will always cost you more.
6 - Reading every contract is part of the job.
7 - Keeping track of all invoices is (a crucial) part of the job.
8 - Unless someone is doing the work, never let them into the GP (this is what side letters are for).
9 - The two biggest mistakes you can make that are nearly impossible to recover from are paying too much for land and hiring the wrong team.
10 - The most value destruction on a site comes from entitling the wrong thing.
11 - Everything is negotiable.
12 - The more you understand the project, the more you’ll be able to negotiate.
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Replying to @chernobelskiy
Everyone wants co GP economics but has nebulous ability to actually bring LP capital. Lots of folks looking for free call options on a good sponsor but lack of actual LP equity capital
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
NEMA is so lucky they didn’t go bankrupt 2 years ago. Now…. They are cooking.
2 beds for $8k+
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Day in the life
- GC thinks I’m the finance guy
- investors think I’m the PM
- Bank thinks I’m the GC
- Architect thinks I’m the finance guy
- Family thinks I’m the realtor
- City thinks I’m a land use attorney
- Friends think I’m the GC
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
The Bay Area housing shortage is 100% self inflicted, as any ride on Caltrain will show.
Well-intentioned legislation in the late 1970s put environmental protection and property tax stability over the ability to build housing to meet the demand of a rapidly growing region.
The CA political machine then moved in and layered on new fire codes, seismic requirements, energy efficiency standards and other rules that have made building housing more expensive than anywhere else in the country.
These were good ideas taken too far.
As Silicon Valley wealth ballooned, commuter towns grew wealthy and pulled up the ladder - NIMBYs blocked developments and prices rose.
Impact fees, inclusionary housing, CEQA - it’s hard to building housing in the Bay Area because that’s the way the system was designed.
Decades passed and after the twin shocks of the GFC and Covid, building has fallen off a cliff and now with the new tech boom - Artificial Intelligence - there’s not enough apartments or homes for the people who want to move here.
I wish there were an easy way out. Some magic bullet - a single policy. They’ve passed dozens of new regs aimed at making it easier, with minimal impact.
A regime that took decades and a coordinated political movement to build will not be torn down in a matter of years.
It can only be taken apart in the same way, brick by painful brick.
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Live footage of everyone trying to buy a house in the Bay Area
Anthropic has confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Pending completion of SEC review, this gives us the option to pursue an initial public offering.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/confident…
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Berkshire Hathaway just announced they are acquiring Taylor Morrison (TMHC) for $72.5/share, or an $8.5B enterprise value. The implied premium is roughly 24% on latest share price
The multiple for the deal is cheap at ~9.3x LTM earnings or ~8.8x adjusted earnings. On a book value basis, Berkshire is paying ~1.2x book. Historical homebuilders have transacted at 1.0-1.5x book value, so this is on the lower end of the range
Interesting deal for a few reasons
> Clayton Homes, which is currently owned by Berkshire, has seen sales slide downwards because of high interest rates. New CEO Greg Abel called this out directly at 2026 shareholder meeting. They have to believe that mortgage rates are at or near its peak for this new deal to make sense
> During the same annual meeting, they had explicitly mentioned that Berkshire would try to consolidate their homebuilding assets into a combined platform. This includes Clayton Homes, MiTek, Bejamin Moore, Acme Brick, Shaw etc. They also own the brokerage side through Berkshire HomeServices. TMHC fits into the picture by supplementing these existing platforms. This is also the first major acquisition by Greg Abel after succeeding Warren Buffett
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Housing units completed in San Francisco per year over the last 20 years
San Francisco has only completed 377 housing units so far this year
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
can't believe i spent my whole life becoming Good At Computer only for Computer to become Better At Computer
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
All 15 of the biggest homebuilders tracked by ResiClub are seeing year-over-year margin compression
Bigger incentives and outright price cuts in the weakest markets, coupled with stubborn land prices, are squeezing margins
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
From a political perspective, it takes little to no effort to support a rent freeze. It’s not surprising that in the era of slop policy it would find fertile ground.
It has all the transactional benefit of promising a key constituency a personal financial benefit while virtually none of the heavy horse trading needed of a tax cut or a new spending initiative. Promising people they can pay less for more is a hallmark of political pandering and modern advertising.
Let’s be clear about what this is. It is quite literally the government saying we are deciding that despite evidence to the contrary we believe these buildings, the people who pay free market rents, and those who own them, should pay more to cover the “human right” of someone else’s housing.
Lawmakers will twist themselves in knots to explain how no one should care about that because it’s just “fair”… However, if you are anything like me, you’ll flag at the very least that politicians feel this way because they don’t actually comprehend how much housing truly costs to operate, and their perception of the need of their constituents conveniently is also much greater than reality.
Even in polling we have conducted with over 1000 respondents, oversampling I was heartened to see that a vast majority of people actually would be happy to pay more if it meant better housing.
That tells me renters like myself understand something that lawmakers lose in the political process.The understanding that you get what you pay for.
You may not always get better housing from more rent… but you will always get worse housing with less money.
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Japan’s growing ownership of U.S. homebuilders, as told by one chart
See here: resiclubanalytics.com/p/japa…
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donkeyDdevelops retweeted
If you are not high energy on an OAC call you are dismissed by me from the meeting.
donkeyDdevelops retweeted
Replying to @LibertyCappy






























