The recent Census report said that this was based on 24,000 out of over 128 million voters. That's less than could be explained by normal matching error rates. See the excellent video by economist Justin Wolfers at youtube.com/watch?v=IHmwEqB5…
Econdataus retweeted
whowhatwhy.org/politics/us-p…
I think the URL speaks for itself. Please read and RT. Thank you, friends.
It's also important to note that the Trump tax cut consisted of tax cuts AND tax increases. The table below is from a Joint Committee on Taxation study at taxnotes.com/research/federa… . You can read more on this at econdataus.com/taxcuts.html#…
Below are outlays & revenue (blue) in actual & real (inflation-adjusted) $ and as % of GDP. As seen, Trump's claim that revenue went up following his tax cut is only slightly true in actual $. In real $ and as a % of GDP, they went down as expected. See econdataus.com/taxcuts.html#…
CPI, year-over-year did peak in June 2022 at 9.1% under Biden. But rises in CPI often follow rises in M2 money supply. The FRED chart below shows that M2 peaked in February of 2021, just after Trump left office. That was from the COVID response. See econdataus.com/cpi_m2.html .
Econdataus retweeted
All 17 talks videos for the 2023 #DEFCON #VotingVillage @VotingVillageDC @defcon #DEFCON31 main stage are now up (with proper subtitles) on our YouTube channel:
youtube.com/@defconvotingvil…
#NationalSecurity #ElectionSecurity #ElectionIntegrity
@sg1011sg @JonathanSimon14 You can find links to the original sources for the AZ election data at econdataus.com/voting_area.h… & a link to the app that created the plots at econdataus.com/voting_area.h… . This app can be used to compare two races as described at econdataus.com/voting_area.h… .
4/ The Maricopa precinct at the top of the plot "blue-shifted" about 32% toward Democrats and the two Greenlee precincts at the bottom of the plot "red-shifted" about 35% toward Republicans between 2018 and 2020.
For anyone who's interested in the code for the app described at econdataus.com/voting_538.ht… and shown below, I've uploaded the code to GitHub at github.com/rdavis27/voting_5… . The code is in R and all the required code should be there. If anyone has any questions about it, let me know.
This map shows all states where the margin of 538 projections or results for Pres were < 3%. Trump lost AZ, NV, GA, MI, PA, & WI by < 3% & contested all. IA, OH, & TX were projected wins < 3% for Reps. FL and NC flipped to Rep wins. All shifted right. See econdataus.com/voting_538.ht…
Econdataus retweeted
This!!! All day long. Please retweet. Just an excellent explanation, clearly done. We are totally on the money to be comparing poll tapes to numbers reported out of SOS office.
Trump tweeted that the recent 33.1% GDP growth for 2020 Q3 is "the best quarter of ECONOMIC GROWTH EVER recorded". In fact, if is combined with last quarter's plunge, the result is a loss of 2.2% annualized. See the graph below and the numbers at econdataus.com/gdp_growth_20… .
There's an excellent article in the Economist magazine about setting an 18-year term limit for Supreme Court justices. It points out that "America is the only democracy where judges on the highest court have unlimited terms." See economist.com/leaders/2020/0…
What right do we have to set the Supreme Court for the next generation? We're already leaving them a $26 trillion debt, massive student debt, a hollowed-out middle class, and a non-functioning government. Limit SCOTUS to 18-year terms and let our children pick their own SCOTUS.
The AP story at apnews.com/b91e66dc273756b3f… reports that the deficit is projected to reach $3.7 trillion for the full year. But the table and graph at the bottom of econdataus.com/mts.html show that the gross federal debt has increased about $4.5 trillion over the last 12 months.
According to the just-released Employment Situation, the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2% in July. However, the unemployment rate for Computer and Mathematical Occupations continued to rise, increasing by 0.1% to 4.4%. See econdataus.com/cps03covid19.…
Table 2–3 COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS in the Analytical Perspectives also shows that Trump's budget cuts interest costs by assuming lower interest rates on the 91-day Treasury than others. See the graph below and at econdataus.com/budget21_20.h…
The graph below shows how the budget's low estimates for interest rates on the 91-day Treasury result in relatively low interest costs going forward (the purple line). As can be seen, the costs are well below last year's estimates. See econdataus.com/budget21_20.h…
