Eddy Roche

The Road to the Big Print (and an ode to @LawrenceLepard) There once was a Fed in a bind, with forty-odd trillion behind. They hiked and they swore, till the bond market roared — then printed, as Larry divined. Sitting on my bookshelf, is the book Larry wrote on how this ends. This roadmap is my attempt at translating his thesis, expressed as a checklist. The milestones won't land in exact order and the timeline will surely bend, but I find it useful to track a general guideline, so nothing comes as a surprise. Thought to share it here in case others find it useful, and I’ll post updates as things progress. Of course this could all be wrong and we teleport to $500K BTC. Already happened: ☑ First Fed hike in 3 years — 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, with 16 of 18 officials projecting more ☑ 10-year at 5%, highest since 2007 — driven by debt supply, not inflation expectations ☑ Treasury buybacks deployed to manage the long end ☑ Gold ran to a $5,600 ATH on the fiscal math, corrected 23% when the Fed turned hawkish — central banks buying the entire dip ☑ Bitcoin's correction bottomed at $57.5K, down 55% from the $126.5K high. The September retest held $75K on the most hawkish Fed outcome available — a higher low, made on bad news, and it rallied off the announcement Phase 1 — The Squeeze (now → December): ☐ BTC relief rally through $83K resistance ☐ BTC reaches the $84–92K zone (the levels: 83.9K, 86.7K, 92K), marking the first higher high since bear market ☐ Fed hikes a second time (October or December — the dots demand it) ☐ 10-year breaks above 5.25% ☐ BTC corrects to the $70–76K region on the second hike. Buyable. ☐ Consumer credit keeps deteriorating: card delinquencies and auto defaults pushing toward GFC-era levels Between the phases: expect a 72–88K range lasting one to three months that convinces everyone bitcoin lost to gold. Rallies fade below the prior high, volume dries up, the feed is filled with "dead money." That boredom is the setup. Phase 2 — The Strain (Q1–Q2 2027): ☐ A Treasury auction tails badly; bond volatility (MOVE) spikes ☐ 30-year through 5.5% (possibly to 6.0%) — the "invoice," as Druckenmiller calls it, arrives ☐ Equities enter a proper bear; something in credit breaks publicly ☐ QT formally ends; first "temporary market-functioning" facility launched ☐ The hiking cycle is abandoned ☐ BTC's last great dip: violent, into $65–75K, with the deep tail at the $62K base that held all summer. Gold turns up first Phase 3 — The Big Print (H2 2027): ☐ First rate cut, framed as victory over inflation ☐ The Fed's balance sheet expands again under any name but QE ☐ Yield-curve control in function if not in name ☐ Gold reclaims $5,600 ☐ BTC breaks its all-time high ($126.5K) ☐ BTC $150–180K — the first leg of the print Phase 4 — The Repricing (beyond this roadmap, into 2028): Once monetization is standing policy rather than emergency response, bitcoin stops trading as a risk asset and reprices as a reserve asset — against a gold market the same policy is inflating toward $7–8K. Fifteen percent of that gold market is $300–550K per coin. The gauge that arbitrates everything is the BTC/gold ratio. A government rolling $40 trillion of debt at 5% has two options: default or debase. Position for the choice they always make. They'll hike, and they'll posture, and squint — then do what they do: the Big Print. bitcoin:native $MSTR